【新唐人2014年06月11日讯】6月的第一周，上海商铺的成交量和成交金额，同比下降接近百分之八十。专家指出，中国房地产市场中，商铺泡沫比住宅更加严重，一旦泡沫破裂，会殃及这个社会。
“上海搜房数据监控中心”数据显示，刚过去的6月第一周，上海商铺共计成交116套；成交面积共8440平米，环比下跌77.59%，创下3月以来商铺周成交量最低；而总成交额1亿7800万，环比下跌了76.43%。
美国《华尔街日报》分析指出，中国商铺的泡沫比住房泡沫更加严重。
美国商业地产服务公司“CBRE”说，去年全球新建购物中心面积排名前10名的城市，有九座在中国，而中国的在建购物中心面积，超过全球在建购物中心面积的一半。尤其四川成都处于中国购物中心爆炸式增长的中心。
去年开发商在成都投入使用的购物中心面积，远远超过去年全球任何城市开设的购物中心。庞大的“成都国际金融中心(IFS)”，只是成都市1,500万居民可选的购物场所之一。IFS购物中心今年开业，设有300家店铺、五星级酒店、豪华公寓、溜冰场、雕塑园景和画廊。IFS中心“采蝶坊餐厅”服务员告诉《新唐人》，IFS的入住率非常低。
大陆经济评论家牛刀：“他们那种规划完全是脱离实际的，到处是空的地方，有的还是国家级的做规划的，我们看到的情况是非常的恶劣，中国是一个专制主义国家，没人档得住政府想干什么。”
据报导，中国的地方政府在批给开发商住房项目时，把修建大型购物中心和酒店作为项目批准条件。
报导说，英国地产咨询公司“莱坊”表示，目前在中国，开发商正建造的多用途建筑物，相当于1000个美国最大购物中心的规模，可惜大规模的扩建来得不是时候，因为零售商都在搁置店铺扩张计划。
调查显示，由于网上购物的发展，全球购物中心都受到了很大程度的冲击。
而中国国内商家的抗议时有发生。今年2月，成都“伊厦国际商贸城”的1000多商户，沿街游行示威，声讨商贸城在2010年招商时，用虚假信息欺骗商家到这个商贸城投资，结果血本无归，有的甚至妻离子散。不过他们的抗议，最终遭到当局镇压，数人被捕。
牛刀：“我去年跑了5、6个省，跑了好多地方，全部在那儿闹事，举牌子在游行，说原来说得好好的，有多少投资回报，实际上是没有的，小股东的钱都白花了，但是政府的警察把老百姓驱走，官商勾结很厉害。”
《华尔街日报》引述“莱坊”中国区董事、综合项目顾问及代理服务部主管孙俊安的话说，如果购物中心在开业后不能全部被商户承租，或者获得良好运营的话，购物中心拥有人，每个月很容易亏损数千万人民币。而中国政府还没有意识到，一旦所有项目都完工，空置问题将变得非常严峻。
美国南卡罗来纳大学艾肯商学院教授谢田：“崩盘的话，涉及到资金都非常庞大，会带动借钱给他们的银行，从地下银行、影子银行筹钱来的，那有涉及到更多的人群，最后不管是国家买单也好，或者倒闭也好，很多人投入的钱也就打水漂了，这些都会造成社会局势的动荡。”
据国内媒体报导，中国各地购物中心空置现象非常严重。今年南京购物中心已经进入了“扎堆交付年”，但一些已经营业的购物中心，或其他类商业体经营状况并不乐观，南京中央路一家大型购物中心，即使在周末时间，除了餐饮店有人气外，其他楼层人气稀少。
现在中国10大房地产开发商，都有一些商业地产项目，大连“万达集团”是中国最大的商业地产开发商。美国“摩根大通”首席中国经济学家朱海斌表示，和中国住宅地产相比，短期内更担心中国的商业地产，从历史上来看，商业地产泡沫出现破裂的频率更高，这会带来较高的经济成本，美国储蓄和信贷危机就是一个例子。
采访编辑/刘惠 后制/葛雷
Shanghai Commercial / Residential Estates Collapsing
Trading volume and sales of Shanghai Commercial estates
for the first week of June dropped nearly 80% compared with
the same period in 2013.
Experts point out that China’s commercial real estate bubble
has become more serious.
Once the bubble bursts,
it will bring disaster to the entire society.
Data from Shanghai sofun.com shows that a total of 116
commercial real estate properties with 8440 square meters
were sold during the first week of June,
This is down 77.59% compared with same period last year,
the lowest since March 2014.
The total sales volume was 178 million yuan, down 76.43% MoM.
U.S. Wall Street Journal analyzed that the commercial property
bubble is more serious than the housing bubble.
U.S. commercial real estate company CBRE said that
nine out of 2013’s top 10 new shopping centers were in China.
China’s shopping center construction area was more than
half of the world’s construction area.
In particular, shopping centers in Chengdu, Sichuan
grew at an explosive rate.
The shopping areas built in 2013 in Chengdu were
larger than anywhere in the world,
Such a gigantic project is the Chengdu International Financial
Centre (IFS) among other shopping areas for 15 million
residents in Chengdu.
IFS opened this year with 300 stores, five-star hotels,
luxury apartments, an ice rink, and landscaped sculpture gallery.
IFS staff told NTD that the occupancy rate is very low.
China’s economic commentators Niu Dao:
“Their planning is completely unreal.There are empty houses
everywhere. Some projects were done on a national scale.
I think the situation is very bad. China is an totalitarian country.
No one can stop what the government does."
Accordingly, construction of shopping malls and hotels
is a decision for local governments to approve projects.
U.K. real estate consulting company Knight Frank
stated that developers are building multi-purpose properties
in China,
These are equivalent in size to a 1,000 U.S.’ largest shopping malls.
But unfortunately the timing is not good,
as retailers are putting expansion plans on hold.
A survey indicates that development of online shopping
largely impacts shopping centers worldwide.
Businesses protests occur in China from time to time.
In February this year, more than 1,000 merchants at
Chengdu’s Yixia International Trade City took to the street.
They were protesting against the Trade City getting their investment
in 2010 with falsified information that caused their losses.
The protests were repressed and several people were arrested.
Niu Dao: “I travelled five to six provinces in 2013.
Protests are everywhere.
People were told they would get a certain return on investments,
but in fact they did not get any.
Small shareholders’ money was all wasted.
The police suppresses the protest.
Government and business collusion is very serious."
China Area Member of the Board and Head of Agency Services
Sun Junan
if a shopping center is not fully leased after opening,
or not being run well,shopping center owners could easily lose
ten million yuan each month.
The Chinese government has not realized that once all the
projects are completed, the vacancy problem will become
very serious.
Professor Xie Tian at University of South Carolina
Aiken School of Business:"If it collapses, it will involve very
large amounts of money.
It will impact banks, underground banks, shadow banks,
those who lend the money and others.
In the end, either government bailout or bankruptcy,
money is gone and these will cause social unrest."
According to Chinese media, the vacancy issue of China’s
shopping centers is very serious.
This year many shopping centers in Nanjing
will be delivered together.
But some shopping centers or other types of commercial properties
are not doing well.
At one large shopping center at Central Rd in Nanjing,
Only the dining area is popular even during weekends.
China’s top 10 major real estate developers all have some
commercial real estate projects.
Dalian Wanda Group is China’s largest commercial real
estate developer.
U.S. JP Morgan’s chief China economist Zhu Haibin expressed:
compared with residential real estate, short-term concern is
mounting more around commercial real estate.
From the historical point of view, commercial real estate
bubbles bursts occurs at a higher frequency,and brings
higher economic costs.
The savings and lending crisis in the U.S. is one such example.
Interview & Edit/LiuHui Post-Production/GeLei
