【新唐人2014年05月08日讯】“世界银行”的“国际比较计划（ICP）”在4月30号发布最新报告，报告认为中国2014年就可能超越美国，成为全球最大的经济体。而中共当局面对这个桂冠，却尴尬的拒绝接受。学者认为，中国国内生产总值(GDP)的数字被高估，中国的实际情况是：各行各业低迷，经济受困于通货膨胀和房地产泡沫危机，困难重重。
据了解，“国际比较计划”这份最新报告，是由多家国际机构共同完成，以2011年的数据为基础，进行评估。而使用“购买力平价”这一新方法得出的结论是，美国目前是世界第一大经济体，中国紧随其后，中国有可能在今年超越美国，成为世界第一经济大国。
中共政府面对这个挤下美国保持140多年的“世界第一经济大国”宝座，却采取了拒绝接受的态度，很多官媒的相关报导标题都标注了问号。《新华社》5月1号发表短评，提醒中国经济应当“警惕虚胖”。
美国南卡罗莱纳大学艾肯商学院教授谢田：“因为它们自己也知道，实际上这个数字，根本是一个谎言，虚假的一个泡影，整个GDP的数字本身已经被大大的高估了，而中国的物价水平被大大低估了，造成中国平价购买力，看起来相对的高，中国老百姓受困于通货膨胀，经常会发生在美国或其他海外，购买一些产品会更便宜。”
“国际比较计划”在2005年的报告中，世行认为，中国的经济规模不及美国的一半，只有美国的43%。但最新报告使用“购买力平价”这一新方法得出的结论则是，2011年中国GDP达到了美国的87%。
浙江财经大学教授谢作诗：“按市场汇率算的话，中国GDP跟美国还有不少差距呢，现在只能占到百分之六十左右﹔要按购买力平价算，你就高估了中国的GDP，因为中国的劳动便宜，说是今年超过美国这个有点夸张。”
根据“国际比较计划”的数据，在人均国民生产排行榜上，美国位居第12，中国则远远落后，只排在第99位。美国《华尔街日报》中文网相关文章引述国际货币基金(IMF)前官员施瓦茨(Stephen Schwartz)的话说，不难想像人口越多的国家会有更高的产值。他说，如果按人均单位衡量，中国依然非常贫困。
浙江财经大学教授谢作诗：“人均更不要说了，总量都还有差距，何况人均呢?目前中国经济的困难，就是前期不恰当的刺激造成的，现在面对经济下滑的压力，越刺激的话不好。我判断今年可能泡沫会破裂，中国的房市肯定要下调，救市不能主宰这个下跌趋势，GDP下调太大，失业会大，成为社会动荡。”
去年，美国的GDP总量超过16万亿美元，中国为9万多亿美元，差距高达7万多亿。如此巨大的差距，一年之内怎么可能超越？所以大家质疑，中国的经济规模被故意夸大。
署名“鹤立堪风”的网友指出：“竭泽而渔的繁荣，不值得炫耀”。还有网友（林林L1982）质问：中国的GDP知道怎么来的？贱卖资源！出卖廉价劳动力。然后再利用这个创造的外汇开动印钞机，造泡沫房地产。
大陆投资专家郑先生：“那个数据大家都知道，水分很多。实际的情况是困难重重，各行各业都低迷。人均税负年年在增长，人均可支配收入年年在萎缩，而物价上涨的指数，年年超过了官方的宣布，房地产市场还有很多市场也暴露这个现状嘛，疲软低迷，有些人得利了，造成了极大的贫富差距。”
大陆财经评论家张平撰文：“中国GDP世界第一背后究竟尴尬了谁？” 他提到﹕因为中国经济目前困境重重，待转型升级，经济体制改革已步入深水区，冷不丁的被戴上一顶充满不实数据的桂冠，有点不伦不 类。
另外，张平认为，中共拒绝接受中国成为世界第一大经济体，国际社会的看法是﹕中共不想承担经济大国的国际责任。他说，中共要争取国家利益时，习惯坐在前排，要求大国地位﹔但要承担国际责任时，则缩在后排，要求世界将它当作发展中国家看待，给予各种援助与优惠。
采访编辑/熊斌 后制/周天
Chinese Communist Party Embarrassed: Overtaking
The U.S. as The Biggest Economy?
On April 30, the World Bank International Comparison
Program (ICP) released its latest report.
The ICP said that China may overtake the U.S. in 2014
as the world’s largest economy.
However, Chinese Communist Party (CCP) knows the truth
of its embarrassing financial situation.
Scholars say that China has made its Gross Domestic Products
(GDP) figures too high;
The reality is that all industries are facing a difficult time, the
economy is affected by inflation and housing bubble crisis.
Sources say the ICP report was jointly done by several
international institutes using calculations from 2011 data.
Purchasing power parity was used
to get the new estimates.
It states that now the U.S. is the world’s biggest economy,
China is the second.
It says that China is likely to surpass the U.S.
as the world’s largest economy this year.
As the U.S. has consistently remained the world’s largest
economy for 140 years, the CCP questioned itself whether
its economy is as good as expected.
On May 1, Xinhua News Agency published a brief comment
warning that China’s economy should be alerted to”fake fat”.
Xie Tian, Professor of University of South Carolina Aiken:
“The CCP knew the figures they provided are unreal.
The entire GDP figures have been overestimated, but the
goods pricing level in China is underestimated.
It purchasing power seem relatively high.
The Chinese people are trapped in inflation, it often happens
that buying goods in the U.S. and other countries is cheaper.”
According to the ICP report in 2005, the World Bank then said
the size of China’s economy was 43% of the U.S..
The new report used Purchasing Power Parity to estimate
the figures.
These say that China’s GDP in 2011 reached 87%
of the size of the U.S..
Xie Zuoshi, Professor at Zhejiang University of Finance and
Economics:”Calculating the market exchange rate, China’s
GDP is far behind the U.S., maybe 60%.
To base information on Purchasing Power Parity, China’s
GDP would be overestimated.
China has cheap labor, and to overtake the U.S.
this year is a bit exaggerated.”
According to the ICP report, on rating per capita of Gross
National Product, the U.S. was ranked in the top 12.
China was far behind the US, ranked as 99.
The Wall Street Journal Chinese website cited Stephen
Schwartz, formerly of the International Monetary Fund.
He said that”You’d expect countries with more people to
have bigger output.
In per capita terms, China is still very poor.”
Xie Xuoshi:”Let alone per capita, the total amount of GDP
in China is still far behind.
The current Chinese economic difficulties were caused by
its improper stimulation implemented earlier.
Now facing the pressure of economic sliding,
the more stimulation, the worse the outcome.
I think the bubble will burst this year and China’s housing
market certainly will be reduced.
The bailout of the market cannot control the declining trend.
If the GDP is reduced too much, the unemployment
will increase, more social unrest will also take place.”
In 2013, the U.S. GDP reached over $16 trillion, China was
over $9 trillion, which is $7 trillion less than the U.S..
How to fill the huge gap and overtake the U.S. in one year?
So the public believe that China’s economy size
was overestimated.
Netizen”helikanfeng” said:”To drain the pond to get all the
fish, is not worth of showing off.”
Netizen”Linlin L1982” questioned:”Do you know where
China’s GDP come from? Cheap resources! Cheap labor!
After they got foreign currency from these channels,
they created the real estate bubble.”
Mr. Zheng, China-based investment expert:”We all know
the figures are unreal.
There are a lot of problems in reality, every industry faces
bad situations.
Per capita tax burden increases every year, per capita income
is reducing every year, but the price index exceeds officials’
estimates each time.
Real estate and other markets face problems of decline.
Some people get rich, which created a huge wealth gap.”
Zhang Ping, China-based financial commentator wrote an
article questioning”China GDP is said to be at the top of the
world. Who feels embarrassed?”
He said that because China’s current economy faces many
difficulties, the economic reform has got into deep water,.
Suddenly it was putting on inaccurate data and a crown,
it is nonsense.
Zhang Ping said that snce the CCP rejected taking the crown
of the world’s largest economy, the international communities
view is that the CCP doesn’t want to take international
responsibility for the economy.
He said when the CCP needs to obtain interests, it has a habit
of sitting in the front row, requesting a large country’s seat;
When it is time to take international responsibility,
it hides in the back row.
Then asking the international community to treat it as a
developed country, and needing help and a favor.
Interview & Edit/Xiongbin Post-Production/Zhoutian
