【新唐人2014年03月15日讯】中共总理李克强周四承认，中国的经济在2014年将面临“严重挑战”。同一天，国家统计局发布的数据显示，投资、零售和工厂产出的增长，下滑到多年来的最低。大陆经济学家指出，2008年以来的四万亿大规模刺激方案，走到今天这一步，造成结构性失调和产能过剩，经济下滑成为必然。
李克强在中共“人大”会议最后一天的新闻发布会上讲话，暗示北京今年将容忍更缓慢的经济增长。
就在他讲话之后不久，官方发布的数据暗示，这种容忍面临着一个考验。
根据国家统计局周四发布的数据，2014年1-2月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长8.6 %。从环比看，2月份比上月增长0.61%。英国《路透社》认为，这标志着中国工厂产出，自从2009年四月份以来的增长速度，呈现最差表现。
而零售业的增长也达到三年来的最缓慢。一、二月份同比增长11.8%。
作为经济活动的一个重要驱动力的“固定资产投资”，表现的更差。它在今年头两个月同比增长17.9%，这是11年以来的最低水平。
北京“天则经济研究所”副所长冯兴元表示，中国经济形势这几年不是特别好。投资增量不断往下走。究其原因还是所谓的产能过剩。实际上就是“凯恩斯主义”那一套做法本身它有局限性。“凯恩斯主义”认为，要维持一定的经济高增长，就必须不断增加投资。
北京天则经济研究所副所长冯兴元：“这意味着不断的促进需求，拉动需求。他这种逻辑本身是有问题的。你怎么能不断的拉动需求，把这个作为整个社会整个国家生活的目标？经济增长当然是好事情，但是纯粹为了增长而增长，不断的想着一定要通过拉动需求这种做法，这个想法，这个理念本身是错误的。”
冯兴元表示，中国的经济结构性失衡在2008年以后加剧。政府为了维持高增长，抵御来自美国的全球金融危机可能带来的波及后果。中共政府搞了四万亿大规模刺激经济的一揽子方案。
冯兴元：“主要的资金走向了中央国有企业，地方国有企业，还有国家的基础设施项目，也就是‘三国’渠道。这样投资的结果主要是国有部门拿到了钱，民营经济的生存环境是恶化的。这种格局下面，结果就是整个经济的结构性失衡加剧。”
一些经济学家相信，今年的增长目标可能达不到。
《路透社》报导，法国“兴业银行”中国经济学家姚伟在周四数据出炉之后表示，中国的经济“势头真的相当疲弱。”“第一季度的GDP增长可能已经低于7.5%。政府将可能推出一些宽松政策。”她预计，央行将减少银行储备金50个基本点。
冯兴元指出，如果不进行金融改革，单纯推行宽松货币政策发挥不了很大作用，因为资金还是很难到达民营企业手中。
冯兴元：“现在很多钱实际上是从金融部门转几手，大家都分些钱，到要求利息率很高的时候才放到需要者手里。包括资金在国有银行再转到国有企业，或者上市公司，再通过委托贷款或者信托贷款，再放到民营企业家手里的时候，要求的利息率，或者管理费都已经非常高了。所以单纯推行扩张的货币政策没有用。”
冯兴元指出，在中国巨大的金融部门里面循环着大量资金，经过多次循环之后，才能到达实体经济。效率非常低。他认为，需要发展更多的中小银行。单纯的扩张货币供应量，也许还会制造其他麻烦，比如通货膨胀。
李克强在新闻发布会上暗示，他将容忍低于目标的GDP增长速度。他说，“GDP增长目标大约是7.5%。‘大约’意味着有一些弹性，我们有一些容忍度。”而“增长的底限必须确保创造就业。”
但是，亲GDP增长的“国家发改委”主任徐绍史周三说，7.5%的目标已经是政府的底限。
而在上海“超日太阳能科技公司”的五年债券上周五未能支付利息之后，李克强也暗示，政府将允许更多的债务违约。
采访编辑/秦雪 后制/黎安安
Li Keqiang: The CCP Faces A Serious Economic Challenge in 2014
The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) premier Li Keqiang
said on Thursday that China’s economy faces
a “serious challenge" in 2014.
On the same day, the State Statistics Bureau reported that
China’s economic growth in investment, retail and industrial
production dropped to its lowest point in recent years.
A Chinese economist commented that it is the CCP’s
4-trillion-yuan economic stimulus package in 2008
that resulted in the present structural imbalance
and economic overcapacity.
Therefore a drop in economic activity
is indeed unavoidable.
Li Keqiang gave a talk at the press conference after
the annual of the National People’s Congress (NPC) sessions.
Li’s talk suggests the CCP authority is prepared to accept
a significant economic slowdown.
Some economic statistics were officially announced
immediately following Li’s talk.
The statistics suggest that the challenge will not be easy
for the party leaders to endure.
The State Statistics Bureau reported on Thursday that
the industrial output rose by 8.6 percent
during the January-February period.
February’s rise in industrial output edged up slightly
by 0.61 percent from January.
Reuters commented that this has been the worst
performance of China’s industrial production since
April, 2009.
The January-February retail sales increased by 11.8 percent,
which is also reportedly the lowest in three years.
Another important index of economic motivation,
the fixed-asset investment, shows even worse performance
in the first two months of 2014.
The 17.9 percent in the period growth is the lowest
compared to the same months in the past 11 years.
Feng Xingyuan, Deputy Director of the Unirule Institute
of Economics, agrees that China’s economy,
has not been in good shape recently.
The incremental investment continues to drop
due to overcapacity.
Feng said, fundamentally speaking, the theory
of Keynesianism is limited in stimulating economic growth.
Keynesianism believes that an increase in investment
is a must in order to maintain economic growth
at a relatively high level.
Feng Xingyuan, Deputy Director of the Unirule Institute
of Economics: “Keynesian theory suggests a stimulus of
demands to produce economic growth.
Such logic is itself flawed.
How can you ceaselessly motivate economic demands
and even make it an ultimate goal of the whole state?
Of course, economic development is a good thing.
However, it is wrong to simply seek economic growth over
anything else and therefore always artificially
stimulate demands."
Feng said China’s economic structural imbalance
has become worse since 2008.
That year, the CCP authorities issued a 4-trillion-yuan
stimulus package to maintain China’s fast economic growth
against the global financial crisis from the United States.
Feng Xingyuan: “Most money had flown into central
state-owned enterprises, local state-owned enterprises
and state infrastructure projects.
These are called the ‘Three State Agencies’.
So the fact is, these state-owned departments had
occupied the most funding resources
and the private economy continues to worsen.
In such a condition, there have been more imbalances
in the whole state’s economic structure."
Some economists believe that this year the CCP may not
be able to achieve its goal in GDP growth.
Reuters reported that Chinese economist for Societe
Generale Yao Wei said after Thursday’s data
that the momentum in China’s economy is really weak.
Yao said, “Quarter one GDP growth is probably already below
7.5 percent; the government will probably do some easing."
Yao speculated that the CCP’s Central Bank would reduce
the bank reserve requirements by 50 basis points.
Feng Xingyuan commented that Quantitative Easing would
not work well without any financial reform, as the funding
resources are still hardly available for private enterprises.
Feng Xingyuan: “Currently a lot of funding has transferred
several times between financial sectors to make profits
before reaching those who need the money, however
already at high interest rates.
The money first goes from state-owned banks to state-owned
enterprises or listed companies.
It then goes to private companies via trust loans.
However, at that stage the interest rates and management
costs are very high.
Because of that, there is no way the Quantitative Easing
Policy will work by itself."
Feng said a huge amount of capital have to circulate
again and again among the CCP’s financial agencies
before stimulating the economy.
Such a process is extremely inefficient.
Feng believes that it is necessary to develop
more middle-level or small-sized banks.
Simply increasing money supply will also result
in other problems such as inflation.
In his press conference, Li Keqiang suggests he will be able
to accommodate a GDP growth lower than the target.
Li said, “The target for GDP growth is about 7.5″,
“There is some flexibility here",
“We have some tolerance on this issue".
Li also said the bottom line is that the GDP growth
has to produce more job opportunities.
On the other hand, Xu Shaoshi, head of the pro-growth
National Development and Reform Commission, said
on Wednesday that a GDP growth of 7.5 percent is
the lowest limit that the party can accept.
Last Friday, Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science
and Technology Co. failed to make a full payment
on its five-year bonds.
Li Keqiang’s speech also suggests the CCP
may allow more debt defaults similar to that.
Interview & Edit/Qin Xue Post-Production/Li An’an
