【新唐人2014年02月28日讯】中国房地产市场最近可说是风雨飘摇，大型建案降价甩卖不断涌现。最近还传出，多家银行为规避房地产风险，停止房地产贷款，股市受此影响也应声暴跌。有专家分析，中国房地产市场的走势，不是正常市场机制所运行出来的表现，而是一连串政策手段造成的结果。对于外界盛传的“楼市崩盘论”，真的会发生吗？请看本台记者黄亿美的分析报导。
随着大陆1月份近9成一线城市成交量环比下跌的数据，以及最近香港、杭州、常州等部分楼盘大幅降价的消息不断传出，楼市降温、房价回落的市场预期声音越来越高。
但是，根据中共国家统计局网站24号发布的消息，与2012年1月比较，在70个大中城市的新建商品住宅中，只有温州价格下降，降幅4.3%。上涨的城市有69个，北京、广州和深圳房价的年涨幅都超过18%，其中涨幅最大的是上海，一年涨了20.9%。
中国人民银行日前也发布数据表示，今年1月上海的本外币个人住房贷款增加116.7亿元人民币，创下近3年来个人住房贷款每月成长量的新高记录。
《央视》财经评论员：“我到长三角跑了几个县，跑了几个市，包括杭州市、义乌市、金华市，这边的房市都很差，这边一塌糊涂根本没人买房子，瞎扯。你看现在二手楼掉的一塌糊涂，上海，二手楼占了20、30%还没人买，还在那边说什么上涨。”
据了解，中国新年一过，浙江杭州城北的“德信-北海公园”楼盘宣布，新房将以每平方米1万5800元价格销售，与降价前1万9000元的均价相比，大约下降了3200元。离这个楼盘不远的“天鸿香榭里”，均价直降3400元。紧接着，杭州又有8个楼盘做出不同程度的价格调整。
大陆经济学者、金融专家杨斌：“其实降50%它也是泡沫，老百姓还是买不起房子，还是高于全世界，今年的房价，平均的房价都高于纽约了，同样按美元比，按人民币比，已经高的出奇了，这个是肯定没问题的，降多少，看各方面的程度吧，我认为降20%的可能性比较大。”
最近一篇网路文章迅速被大量转载，标题是《房价已经崩盘的５点证据》。作者认为，中国楼市已经开始崩盘，或者处于崩盘的前夜。文章举出五点证据可以证明﹕一是，售房旺季楼市不旺﹔二是，三、四线城市的楼市已经有价无市﹔三是，银行已经缩紧房产的银根﹔四是，抛售房产的民间人士越来越多﹔五是，许多大亨纷纷撤资房地产。
对此，中共党媒《新华社》名记者发表评论指出，姑且不论这五点证据是否真的值得推敲，一个不能回避的事实是，2014年以来，看空房地产市场的言论与观点已经是层出不穷。
文章还说，尽管上个月的统计局数据依旧显示全国房价仍在普涨，但关于中国楼市在2014年的前途，很多人却不看好。一系列看上去“利好”房地产行业的因素，在未来的某一天却极有可能成为房地产崩盘的“制造者”。
在中国房地产市场风雨飘摇中，人民币也出现罕见的急速下跌，而资本流出迹象明显，香港楼盘降价30％，李嘉诚抛售大陆资产，种种迹象早已提醒大陆民众要“小心楼市”，再加上楼市已连续上涨10多年，长期累积的泡沫，不知道何时破灭。未来的房市如何，辛苦的劳动阶级民众，得小心看紧荷包。
采访/常春 编辑/黄亿美 后制/孙宁
Chinese Housing Market Cools Down
China’s real estate market has been on a stormy path recently
with price cuts on major real estate.
A number of banks curbed real estate loans to avoid risk.
Subsequently, the stock market has taken a tumble as well.
Experts analyze the real estate market trend in China is not
normal, but a result of a series of policy measures.
Will the real estate market collapse theory take place?
Let’s see our reporter Huang Yimei’s analysis.
With real estate sales in decline in nearly 90 percent
of first tier cities, as well as slashed property prices
in Hong Kong, Hangzhou, and Changzhou, the warning
of a property market decline is getting louder.
However, according to the data from National Bureau
of Statistics on Feb. 24, only Wenzhou real estate prices
declined by 4.3 percent out of 70 cities compared
to the January 2012 data.
Property values have risen in 69 cities.
The housing prices in Beijing, Guangzhou
and Shenzhen rose more than 18 percent.
The housing price in Shanghai has the largest rising
at 20.9 percent.
Recent data from People’s Bank of China also indicates that
this January, Shanghai’s foreign currency property loans have
added another 11.67 billion yuan, hitting a new record high
in the individual monthly property loan growth rate
over the past three years.
CCTV financial commentator: “I went to some counties
and cities in Yangtze River Delta, including Hangzhou, Yiwu,
and Jinhua.
The property market is really poor,
they are not wanted.
The second-hand property market is a mess too.
Second-hand property in Shanghai accounts for 20 to 30
percent of the market, and no one will purchase pre-owned.
They are still saying that prices are rising."
It is understood that after Chinese New Year,
DeXin-Beihai park real estate in north Hangzhou city
cut prices by 3,200 yuan.
A nearby estate in Tianhong Champs had a 3,400 yuan cut.
Subsequently, eight more properties in Hangzhou
made various price adjustments.
Yang Bin, economist: “In fact, a 50 percent price cut
is still a bubble.
People cannot afford it.
Average housing prices are still the highest
in the world, higher than even New York.
It is a sure figure in Dollar or RMB, it is just high.
As for how much they’ll cut prices, it depends.
I think a 20 percent cut is very likely."
A recent Internet post titled, “Five Pieces of Proof
of the Real Estate Collapse", has gained popularity.
The author believes the Chinese housing market has collapsed
or is on the verge of collapsing.
The five pieces of proof are that the high season for selling
is running low, there is no market for real estate
in third or fourth tier cities, Chinese banks have tightened
housing loans, more houses are for sale, and moguls
have withdrawn their investments in real estate.
The Communist mouthpiece Xinhua commented, “Regardless
if these five pieces of evidence are true, one fact
is that real estate market in 2014 has been
looked down upon by many."
People believe that even though the National Bureau
of Statistics showed an overall growth in real estate,
the 2014 prospects look bad.
The series of advantages the Chinese real estate market
is enjoying now could likely become the cause
of a later collapse.
While the real estate market in China is wobbling,
Renminbi also appears to have quickly depreciated
along with significant capital outflow.
Hong Kong real estate prices were down by 30 percent,
Li Ka-shing’s selling of his assets in China and other cases
have reminded the Chinese of the real estate risk.
For more than 10 years, the real estate bubble in China
has been large with increasing prices.
A burst is anticipated.
The hard working labor class should watch their wallets.
Interview/Chang Chun Edit/Huang Yimei Post-Production/Sun Ning
