【新唐人2014年02月25日讯】2月21号，浙江杭州一售楼处遭业主怒砸，因为这一个楼盘突然降价，导致业主买了这个楼盘成为“负资产”。有报告说，大陆50个城市的楼市“非常危险”。大陆专家指出，种种原因导致今年“钱荒”加剧，因此房屋抛售，楼价暴跌恐怕将大面积蔓延。专家也指出，楼市崩盘将是对中共政权的致命一击。
近期浙江杭州楼市掀起降价之战。据大陆媒体报导，在德信北海公园正式对外公布“每平米15,800元”的清盘价后，不到24小时，2月19号下午，附近的楼盘“天鸿香榭里”火速作出反应，宣布将剩下的“货尾”以“起价每平米11,800元，均价每平米13,800元”的价格出售，比原价下跌了3400元。
2月21号下午，一群业主来到售楼处，近百人拉着黑白条幅，与保安和公安对抗。售楼处内被气愤的业主打砸得一片混乱，楼盘模型倒塌。
另外，在过去一个星期，人民币兑美元贬值0.8%。中国金融智库研究员巩胜利认为，这都是说明中国缺钱的信号。而“房价暴跌”的现象，可能是“钱荒”在中国企业当中最先的一个反映，因为房地产往往使用大量资金。而这个现象恐怕将大面积蔓延。
造成中国“钱荒”的原因有几个方面。巩胜利表示，首先是人民银行打算收回人民币的资金。因为金融海啸五年多来，央行投放了比美元、欧元、日元更大量的货币进去，现在需要收回。
中国金融智库研究员巩胜利：“到2013年年底，中国货币供应已经超过了110万亿，大概是美元的1.5倍，比欧元，日元都超过了若干倍。中国现在货币是一个发行大国，所以中国的经济现在面临着两难的困境。就是投币也不行，收币也麻烦。收币，那房地产就缺钱﹔投币，中国货币量已经是全世界最大量。”
另外一个原因是，中国房地产主要是靠信托公司组成。大量的信托公司到2014年大概有十万亿人民币的信托资产到期需要还债。这些房地产公司没有其他资金补充，暴跌就是必然的一种趋势了。
巩胜利：“你做房地产，你有钱可能就维持一段时间，你没有钱当然要抛售了。这是必然的一种选择。你找到钱能进入，那你可能还能维持长一点。如果我下半年，比如像美元到10月份，850亿QE3全部退出，那可能中国的差钱还不止这些。”
那么中国的房地产泡沫是否将要破裂了呢？巩胜利认为，这要看中共央行的货币投放策略。如果它继续大量投放货币，那可能房地产还要撑一段时间。如果央行货币政策开始收紧或者连续收，那么楼市就岌岌可危。
巩胜利：“它是两难。投放也麻烦，因为继续投放，泡沫会越积越大。那么它收也麻烦。如果收，中国6月20日和11月20日已经出现过钱荒。它现在也很害怕。如果再出现钱荒，周小川怎么走的下去？所以他现在处于两难境地。又想保住继续往前走。又想货币收，所以他是两难。往前投也不行。不投也不行。两难的困境。”
1948年11月1号，人民币正式上市，到现在已经超过65年。巩胜利指出，今年是人民币在历史上最麻烦的一个时期。
不过，巩胜利估计，中共央行不会让楼市大面积下跌。因为如果中国房地产泡沫破裂的话，中国经济的稳定等于是出现了大问题。因此，央行行长周小川将会有限的投放货币，像踩着钢丝，小心翼翼的维系着楼市慢慢往前走。
山东济南投资经理 余新永：“ 现在房地产已经到这样一个程度，全世界最贵了，中国老百姓工资又这么低。你能高到什么程度？对不起，他会一路高下去的。房地产泡沫破裂之时，就是他们（中共）的寿终正寝之日。”
巩胜利估计，中国的房地产泡沫恐怕只能再维持两年。他预计，在2016-2017年之间，随着房市泡沫破裂，中国经济将会崩溃，而以发展经济作为唯一统治合法性的中共政权也会随之崩溃。
乌克兰最近的变天仿佛是一个预演。
采访编辑/秦雪 后制/李勇
China’s Property Price Slump Might Become More Widespread
On Feb. 21 property owners angrily destroyed an estate agents office of one particular developer, because the selling property project suddenly reduced
the selling price,which causes the existing owners to hold “negative assets".
It is reported there are around 50 cities in Mainland China with a “very perilous" property market situation.Mainland experts pointed out, many factors aggravate this year’s “Coin Famines",which triggers the sale of properties and the slump of property prices, creating an epidemic in a much wider area.
Experts also state, the property collapse will have major
repercussions in the near future, which might then lead to bankruptcy of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its members.
Recently, the property market in Hangzhou city of Zhejiang Province launched a price-cutting battle.It is reported that after Dexin Northsea Park real estate project, declared to sell all its properties at low prices,of which were sold for 15,800 yuan per square meter. Then within 24 hours of the afternoon of February 19,a surrounding real estate project “Tianhong Sharm” rapidly
responded to it,declaring selling off the remaining properties at a price of 11,800 yuan per square meter,making this an average of 13,800 yuan per square meter,with a reduction of 3400 yuan per square meter.
Then in the afternoon of Feb. 21, a group of existing property owners came to the estate agentsoffice, with almost a hundred people holding black and white banners and being confrontational to the guardians and the police.
The estate agents office was smashed amidst the chaos by the angry property owners,with the building being brought down to the ground.
In addition during the past week, Renminbi has depreciated by 0.8% for the exchange rate with US dollars.Gong Shengli, a researcher of China’s financial think tank,says this is a signal of a money shortage in China.
The phenomenon of “dramatically reduced property prices,"might be the first chain response of the “Coin Famines"amongst Chinese enterprises, considering the property industry is on high demand of large amounts of funds.
Such a phenomenon might be epidemic to a massive area across China.
There are several factors producing Chinese “Coin Famines".Gong Shengli says.
The first being the Central Bank is going to recycle RMB (Chinese currency).
Because during the past five years after financial crisis,Central Bank released more currency into the market than US dollar, Euros, and Japanese Yen,
and it is time to recycle them.
Gong Shengli: “Till the end of 2013, China’s currency supply has exceeded 110 trillion RMB,which is 1.5 times more than US dollars and several times
more of Euros and Japanese Yen.China is now a country with a massive scale
of circulating currency.So China’s economy is facing a dilemma,which is not good for increasing currency supplies as well as troublesome for recirculating money.
Once the recycling of currency begins, then the property industry becomes in short supply of money, it stagnates. For the option of supplying more currency,
China has the largest currency scale in the world."
Another factor is that China’s property is mainly funded by trust companies.
Around 10 trillion RMB trust assets of a large number of trust companies, will be due to repay their debts.If these property companies have no other funds to support themselves,then the slump of property prices is an inevitable trend.
Gong Shengli: “For property developers, if they have enough funds,then the business can maintain itself for a period of time.If they have no funds then they have to sell off the properties.This is an inevitable outcome.
If they can find funds, then they can sustain themselves for a longer period of time.For example, if the US Feds stop their stimulus program from buying US$ 85 billion each month in October.To China, it amounts to more than this."
So will China’s property bubble burst? Gong Shengli says,this depends upon the currency supply strategies of the CCP’s Central Bank.If they continue to increase currency supply,then the property industry could sustain for a period.
But if the currency policy starts to recycle or continue to recycle,
then the property market will seriously be in peril.
Gong Shengli: “There’s a dilemma. The supply will be in trouble,because this will have an expanding effect on the bubble.But to recycle will also bring its own troubles.Due to the Coin Famines which occurred in China on June 20 and November 20 of last year.So the CCP is very fearful. If the Coin Famines happen again,how can Zhou Xiaochuan, head of CCP’s Central Bank move forward? He is surely in a dilemma.He wants to keep the current status and go ahead.
But he also wants to recycle the currency.He is in a deadlock of a position."
On Nov. 1 1948, RMB was officially circulated and this has lasted for more than 65 years.Gong Shengli points out, this year will be the most troublesome of periods in the history of RMB.
However, according to Gong Shengli’s estimation,the CCP’s Central Bank will not allow a dramatic fall of the property price in a massive area.Because if the property bubbles burst,then the stability of China’s economy will be unstable.
Zhou Xiaochuan will release limited currency,which is like treading on steel strings,guiding the property market forward
in a slow and very delicate way.
Jinan investment manager of Shandong Province Yu Xinyong:"The property market has become such a status withthe most expensive price in the world.The income of Chinese ordinary people is so low.So how can the property price be sustained at a higher level? Never mind, the price will go up and up. Eventually, the property bubble will burst one day and the day will be a doomsday for the CCP."
Gong Shengli estimated, China’s property bubble might only sustain another two years.He forecast, between 2016 and 2017, then the property bubble
will burst and China’s economy will collapse.The CCP regime which regards the economic achievements as its only one source of legitimate governance This will inevitably face collapse.
The collapse of the totalitarian regime in the Ukraine in recent days, seems much like a rehearsal for China.
Interview & Edit/Qinxue Post-Production/LiYong
