【新唐人2014年02月22日讯】人民币对美元即期汇率19号开盘，短短半个小时就急跌80点，一天跌了高达91点，这是人民币近期贬值的一个缩影。在1月份“破6”的呼声中，人民币不仅没有继续升值，反而向下跌了490多个基点。人们不禁想知道，这是人民币崩盘的迹象呢，还是中共故意去做的？请看以下报导。
2月19号上午开盘不久，人民币对美元即期汇率就急跌到6.0840，下跌近80个基点。而急跌行情并没有就此中止，目前已到6.0898。
人民币汇率自1月中旬创出6.0406历史高位后，至今连续反向下跌了0.5%，创出了自去年12月9号以来的最低点。而去年则上涨了2.9%。
人民币汇率中间价也继续下行，三个交易日内，人民币对美元汇率中间价，累计下跌100基点，香港离岸人民币市场也是连续下跌，并预计未来一年的人民币兑美元将下跌0.7%。
香港《星岛日报》引述交易人士的话说，19号早盘交易中，曾有至少两家中资大行出价购入美元，使美元价格急升，但不知他们背后的性质及目地。
北京《国情内参》杂志首席研究员巩胜利认为，人民币最近汇率跌度很大，是因为受到了美国宽松货币政策的影响。
北京《国情内参》杂志首席研究员巩胜利：“ 我觉得可能最严峻的应该是7、8、9三个月，那时美国的QE要全部抽回。这很麻烦、很麻烦。因为新兴24个国家货币全部贬。”
巩胜利指出，美国抽回货币，任何国家都没有办法抵挡，中共政府也是两难，无法救市。想保持汇率就要投放大量的外汇，不投放就会出现钱荒，房地产市场就会缺钱。
巩胜利认为，今年会是中共建政以来人民币最严峻的一年，因为超过10万亿人民币进入房市的信托债务就要到期，当前已经出现钱荒，房市的大麻烦就要来了。
20号有媒体报导说，浙江杭州楼市打响了降价第一枪，部分楼盘每平米降价数千元。而同一天，湖北襄阳某一楼盘因开发商资金链断裂，无法按时继续建设。
《央视》财经评论员“牛刀”在博客指出，人民币大跌是泡沫破灭的信号，中国房价泡沫已经在爆裂。
“牛刀”分析认为，1月份大陆存款减少了9402亿，这些存款很大一部分是卖出住宅取出人民币后，转移出境或换成美元了。而那些赚取人民币升值的国外热钱在美元升值、人民币贬值逃走后，也不会再回来。中国金融风暴就可能因此又成一只多米诺骨牌。
不久前，香港《南华早报》的评论文章认为，越来越多迹象表明，人民币正日益被高估，未来人民币贬值趋势不可逆转。
美国南卡罗莱纳大学经济学教授谢田：“人民币本身的问题跟中国经济的整体的崩溃是相关联的，实际上它也是中国银行坏账的问题、地方债务膨胀到不可收拾的问题，还有中国信贷业那些理财产品、地下钱庄、影子银行大范围破灭和违约，在外汇市场上的一个反应。”
美国南卡罗莱纳大学艾肯商学院教授谢田认为，在以后的几个月里，会有越来越多的人民币崩盘的迹象，中国经济也会面临更大的麻烦。
但中国民间智库组织“北京大军智库经济观察研究中心”主任仲大军认为，中国的经济虽然下滑，还不至于崩溃，只是一个时间的波动而已。
中国经济学家仲大军：“对人民币来说，人民币目前的状况也可能受到当前…一个是中国的货币影响，另外一个也受到当前中国国内经济形势的影响，国际间有人看低中国的经济。”
实际上，衡量中国经济荣枯的一项关键指标在2月份继续下滑。“汇丰集团”最近公布的中国制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）初值为48.3，低于1月份的49.5，1、2月的PMI指数都低于50的荣枯线，并创下七个月来的最低水准。而中国就业分项指数，也降到四年中的最低点。
采访/易如 编辑/宋风 后制/萧宇
Breaking News: The Real Estate Bubble Has Burst – CCP Insider
The RMB against the U.S. Dollar fell on the 19th to a new low,
with a decline of 91 basic points, signaling the recent
devaluation of RMB.
Since January, the RMB has continued to rebase against the
US Dollar for as many as 490 basic points.
This phenomenon has set off alarm bells signalling the collapse
of the RMB or a manipulation by the Communist regime.
The following is our report.
The U.S. Dollar to RMB went up on Feb. 19 upon the opening
of the market to 6.0840, by nearly 80 basic points.
This trend has continued to 6.0898 as this report is issued.
Since the historical 6.0406 rate appeared in mid-January,the
U.S. Dollar to RMB has turned around and went up 0.5% and
hit the highest point since Dec. 9.
Last year, the rate went down by 2.9%.
The RMB to U.S. Dollar central disparity rate went down for
three consecutive days with a total of 100 basic points fall.
Hong Kong’s offshore RMB market also fell continuously and
anticipated a 0.7% decline in the RMB against the U.S. dollar
this year.
Hong Kong’s Sing Tao Daily reported that on the 19th in the
exchange market, at least two firms bid on U.S. Dollar and
pushed up the Dollar.
However, the reasons are unknown.
Beijing, Conditions Reference magazine chief researcher,
Gong Shengli believes that the RMB to U.S. Dollar exchange
rate has recently dropped because of the winding down on
monetary policy by the United States.
Gong Shengli, researcher of Beijing based magazine,
Guoqing Neican: “I think July, August and September will be
hardest hit with the complete cut of QE by the Fed.
There will be huge trouble as all 24 emerging countries’
currencies will experience devaluation."
Gong Shengli with the withdrawal of the U.S. Dollar, it’s a
tough situation for every other country, including China.
In order to avoid money shortage, it is necessary to keep the
exchange rate, injection of foreign exchange reserves,such as
in the real estate market.
Gong Shengli believes that this year the Communist regime
will face the most severe situation for RMB since the CCP
came to power.
More than 10 Trillion RMB of trust fund for the real estate
will mature this year.
The money shortage now signals big trouble ahead for
the real estate market.
Media reported that some real estate in Hangzhou, Zhejiang
has seen the first price cut on Feb. 20, at several thousand yuan
per square meter.
On the same day, a property developer in Xiangyang, Hubei
also halted the project due to the breakage of the financial chain.
CCTV financial commentator “Chopper" stated in the blog that
the devaluation of the yuan signals the bubble burst.
The Chinese real estate bubble has burst.
“Chopper" analyzed that the Chinese January deposits
decreased by 940.2 billion,
a majority of which was withdrawn from the selling of property
and transferred overseas or exchanged into the U.S. Dollar.
Foreign hot money will also flee the country upon realizing the
RMB devaluation, never to return.
The domino effect is likely to take place and result in the
Chinese financial storm.
Not long ago, Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post
commented that,
signs of the yuan being overestimated have gradually surfaced
and the RMB depreciation is irreversible.
Professor Xie Tian, School of Business at the University of
South Carolina Aiken:
“The RMB’s problem is related to the entire economic collapse
of China,
including the toxic debts of the Chinese banks, the expansion
of local debts,
and the breach of contract of the trust funds, black market
banks and shadow banks, as shown by the activities in
the foreign exchange market."
Professor Xie Tian believes more signs of the RMB collapse
will show in the next few months, and the Chinese economy
will be faced with very severe troubles.
However, the Chinese think tank researcher Zhong Dajun
indicates that the downturn of the Chinese economy is just a
temporary fluctuation, not necessarily a crash.
Zhong Dajun, economist: “The RMB is affected by both the
currency and the current economic situation in China,
such as there are people in the international arena with low
expectations of the Chinese economy."
In fact, a key measure of China’s economy has continued to
decline in February.
The HSBC’s recent report on China’s manufacturing purchasing
managers’ index (PMI) fell to a 7-month low of 48.3 from
January’s final reading of 49.5,
where a reading below 50 indicates a contraction in economy.
The PMI’s employment sub-index also fell to the lowest point
in four years.
Interview/Yi Ru Edit/Song Feng Post-Production/Xiao Yu
