【新唐人2014年02月13日讯】跨入2014年后，中国人关注的不再是房价的升和降问题，而是锁定在 “房地产泡沫是否会破裂”的问题上。不久前，中共住建部副部长在演讲中说，“中国离房地产崩溃时间还有一些日子，此时要是能想明白，采用微调的方法还可以调节。”而普通民众都想知道，中国房地产泡沫会在2014年破裂吗？
《上海证券报》对住建部副部长所说的“可以通过微调的方式调节房地产崩溃问题”并不认可，并指出，“靠微调只能将房地产崩溃的时期延后，无法真正阻止房地产崩溃的结局”，因为中国错失了2009年初对房地产调控的最佳契机。
中共国务院发展研究中心主任李伟，在去年底的“世界工商协会论坛”上也透露，中国大陆的三、四线城市的房地产泡沫开始破裂，像温州、鄂尔多斯等地的房价已经开始下跌。李伟承认，房地产已成为中国经济增长的最不可预测因素。
香港“中原地产代理有限公司”（Centaline Property Agency Limited）的报告显示，今年1月，“中原地产”所监测的大陆25个三线城市，新建住宅的成交量，创下了6个月来的新低，14个四线城市，新建住宅成交，也是11个月新低。
2014年第一周的三亚楼市，开局就遇“冷”，出现量价齐跌：商品房签约环比下跌24.82%﹔签约面积环比下跌39.87%﹔签约住宅均价下跌12.80%。
大陆地产策划人“牛刀”指出，中国房地产的主要问题，是整个指导思想完全混乱，它把中国老百姓当作“榨油机”，消耗了所有人的钱财，造成内需的严重萎缩。
牛刀表示，目前，香港首富李嘉诚从房地产跑了，很多热钱也都从房地产撤走，而中国把房地产当作金融产品来经营，非常依赖于资金的流向。资金一流入，房价暴涨，资金一流出，房价大跌。
《央视》财经评论员、财经专栏作家牛刀：“就是今年、明年这一两年，可能是出乎所有人的意料之外，突然暴跌，它就像日本当年那样的一个泡沫式的破灭。它没有别的出路。”
美国金融杂志《机构投资者》，选出的2000-2006年“亚洲最佳经济学家”谢国忠博士他也认为，中国房地产泡沫正在破灭，2014年房价将跌50%。
“牛刀”还撰文指出，当年，日本房地产泡沫破灭是属于终极泡沫，破灭后20年都起不来。日本破灭前的征兆：一个是日元停止了升值，这和现在人民币的状态十分相似﹔一个是泡沫进乡村，就如同中国现在的农民工，他们赚的一点辛苦钱都被泡沫绞杀一样﹔还有资金出逃等。
但“牛刀”说，中国还有两点和日本的“终极泡沫破灭”不同：一点是，中国本次泡沫是由于央行发钞﹔第二点是，中国泡沫是极为典型的官商勾结掠夺全民的财富。“牛刀”认为，中国泡沫破灭后果更为严重，人民的生活将成为大问题。
美国“南卡罗来纳大学”经济学教授，中国问题专家谢田表示，中国房地产的泡沫是由国家机器参与、主导并制造的，通过20年的系统性积累，成了人类历史上最大的一次泡沫。当泡沫破灭时，中国地方债务问题、银行的问题、影子银行问题、三角债问题和人民币汇率问题，全部都会迸发出来。
美国南卡罗来纳大学经济学教授谢田：“他这个泡沫破灭的话，可能对中国的经济产生最大的打击，也同时会伴随着人类最后一个最大的专制政权的垮台。这可能是人类历史上非常惊心动魄的事件。”
“牛刀”认为，中国的金融业就像一座即将雪崩的雪山。人们平时看不见，是因为这些年来，中共当局一直凭借权利掩盖一切矛盾，出了问题是政府出面兜底。“牛”刀指出，这些危机都将在2014年开始爆发，而“雪崩开始，有谁能敌”？
采访/常春 编辑/宋风 后制/孙宁
Is China’s Financial “Avalanche" About to Tumble
In 2014, the Chinese people are not concerned about whether
house prices rise or fall, but about the property bubble bursting.
Recently, the CCP deputy Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural
Development said:
“It might be adjusted by fine tuning since we still have some time
before the Chinese real estate collapse."
However, people all want to know if the property bubble
will burst in 2014.
Shanghai Securities News, didn’t agree with the Deputy
Minister saying:
“fine-tuning can adjust the real estate market crash"
and pointed out that “fine-tuning can only delay the crash
not really prevent it", because China missed the best
opportunity in early 2009 for the real estate regulation.
Director of the State Council’s Development Research Centre Li
Wei also revealed at “World Industrial and Commercial
Organizations Forum" that: the real estate bubble began
to burst at third and fourth tier cities since housing price
started to decline at Wen Zhou, Ordos, etc.
Li Wei admitted that real estate has become the most unpredictable
factor in China’s Economic Growth.
The report of Hong Kong, Centaline Property Agency Ltd
shows that: in January, new housing turnover hit the lowest
point in six months in 25 third-tier cities monitored
by “Centaline";
the new residential transactions also hit the lowest
point of 11 months in the 14 four-tier cities.
Sanya property market has had a cold start with volume and price
decline for the first week of 2014.
Commercial housing contracts declined 24.82%; contracted
area fell 39.87%; average price of contracted residential fell 12.80%.
Continental Real Estate planner “Chopper" pointed out that the
main problem of China’s real estate is the completely confused
guiding ideology.
It regards the Chinese people as an oil mill to consume all the
money, resulting in a severe atrophy of domestic demand.
“Chopper" said that Hong Kong’s richest man Li Ka-shing left
the real estatebusiness;
a lot of hot money has also been withdrawn from real estate.
However, China relies on the flow of funds pretty much and runs
real estate as a financial product:
An inflow of funds may boost the housing price and an outflow
of capital may reduce prices.
“CCTV" financial commentator, financial columnist “Chopper":
“it should be this year or next that housing prices suddenly
crash taking everyone by surprise.
It’s like Japan’s bubble bursting without any other alternative. “
The 2000-2006 best Asian economist Dr. Xie Guozhong; voted
by U.S. financial magazine “Institutional Investor",
also believes that China’s real estate bubble is bursting;
prices will fall by 50% in 2014.
“Chopper" writing in an article said the Japanese real estate bubble
bursting was the ultimate bubble and is still in the doldrums
20 years after bursting.
The signals before the Japanese burst: one was the Japanese Yen stopped
rising which is very similar to the current RMB;
another was the bubble into the country, like the current Chinese of
migrant workers, and their hard earned money slashed;
the other was the flight of capital.
But “Chopper" also said that there are two differences in
the “ultimate bubble" between China and Japan:
one is that the Chinese bubble is due to China central bank issuing
money; the other is that the Chinese bubble is typically plunder of the
national wealth by Business-Government Collusion.
“Chopper" believes that the serious consequence of the China
bubble bursting is that people’s lives will plunge into crisis.
Economics Professor of the University of South Carolina,
China expert ,Xie Tian said:
“the China real estate bubble is the biggest bubble in human
history, perpetrated and manufactured by the State machinery,
and systematically accumulated over 20 years..
When the bubble bursts, the Chinese local debt problems, bank
problems, shadow banking problems, triangular debts and the
RMB exchange rate issue will all burst out."
Economics Professor of University of South Carolina, Xie Tian:
“the bursting bubble is the greatest blow to the Chinese economy,
accompanied by the fall of the last, biggest, human authoritarian
regime. This will be a huge breathtaking event in human history. “
“Chopper" believes that China’s finances is like an avalanche
coming down the snow mountain.
It’s invisible these years because the Chinese authorities try
to cover up all contradictions of Government using their powers.
“Chopper" pointed out that these crises will begin to erupt in 2014.
When the avalanche begins, who can stand against it?
Interview/ChangChun Edit/SongFeng Post-Production/SunNing
