【新唐人2014年02月11日讯】全球最权威的军事媒体英国《简氏防务》2月4号发表报告指出，目前位列世界第二位的中国防务预算，继续保持高增长的势头，带动了全球军费开支增长。外界认为，中共军备扩张，加剧了亚太地区的军备竞赛，同时也大大增加了战争风险。请看报导。
《简氏防务》的报告说，2014年，全球军费开支将比去年增加0.6%，达到15,470亿美元，实现2009年来的首次年增长，中国是其中一个主要因素。
《简氏》预测，2014年中国的防务预算，将从2013年的1392亿美元，增加到1480亿美元，到2015年，中国就会超过英国、法国和德国国防开支的总和。《简氏》估计，到了2024年，中国军费将比所有西欧国家都高。
目前，美国是世界上军费开支最多的国家，2013年为5749亿美元，但它比2012年的6643亿美元减少了13%，预计美国未来几年的军费开支还会持续减少下去。
英国2013年的国防开支也比上一年减少了3.6%。
英国《每日电讯报》网站在2月3号报导说，欧洲军事强国和美国，因财政紧缩而被迫大幅削减军费的时候，亚洲和中东各国的支出却急剧上升。
《每日电讯报》指出，亚洲军费增加的一个原因，在于邻国担忧中国的军事强势，和中、日在“钓鱼岛”上的争端，以及由此引发的口角等，让邻国感受到了威胁。去年中共宣布在争议的“钓鱼岛”附近建立防空识别区，加剧了紧张局势。
“简氏资讯集团”的资深分析师克雷格•卡弗里说：“澳大利亚、印度和韩国都提高了军费预算。”
卡弗里认为，由于邻国之间的互不信任情绪，防务支出上升的幅度和速度，会造成某种不稳定，而且在一定程度上，似乎刺激了这个地区其他地方增加军费。
长期通过财政紧缩政策限制军费预算的日本，也提高了2014年的军费预算。
美国中文媒体《中国事务》主编 伍凡：“前两天基辛格在慕尼黑全球安全会议上讲话了，亚洲的局势正类似于第一次世界战争的局势，第一次世界战争前英国和德国交战前的局势。”
美国中文媒体《中国事务》主编伍凡指出，中国与日本在亚洲对恃的势头，正在向战争方向发展。
今年初，在达沃斯的世界经济论坛(WEF)上，日本首相安倍晋三就把日本与中国的对抗，比作一战前英国和德国的对抗。他说，当年这两个欧洲强国之间广泛的贸易往来，无法阻止两国开战，而如今，中国和日本也面临“类似境况”。
美国海军情报处高级情报官杰西•卡洛金(Jesse Karotkin)，在1月30号美中经济与安全审议委员会的国会听证会上说，中国不断提升军力和强化伸张领土主权的力度，会带动亚太地区的军事竞赛。
美国海军军事学院中国海事研究所创始人之一艾立信(Andrew Erickson )也在听证会上说：中共的预算增长速度，大大超过西方国家和中国周边的国家。
而卡洛金表示，如果你是越南、菲律宾或马来西亚，你会看到中共海军惊人的发展速度。这种战略竞争或安全困境，会影响这些地区国家的防务政策，会驱使这地区国家投入资源，以提升自己的军事能力和反制力。
伍凡：“习近平上来，走的比胡温走的还要快，比江泽民更快，因为他现在感觉到如果他不这样走，他这个政权维持不下来。所以他上来就讲强国、强军，强军来保护共产党这个政权。”
伍凡指出，尽管中国在环境治理、公共医疗、教育等很多方面都缺钱，贫困人口也非常多，但中共却在军费上花很多钱。中共关注的是自己的专制统治，不会顾及老百姓的生活。
采访/常春 编辑/宋风 后制/周天
China Drives Global Defense Spending Increase
On February 4, the world’s most authoritative British military
journal “Jane’s Defense" issued a report.
It said that China’s defense budget, the second largest in the
world, continues to maintain high growth momentum and
drives global defense spending increases.
It’s believed that China military expansion intensified the
arms race in the Asia-Pacific, greatly increasing the war risk.
Jane’s Defense said in 2014, global defense spending increased
by 0.6% compared with last year, reaching 1.547 trillion US$.
It achieved its first annual growth since 2009.
The report said China was a major cause.
Jane’s report predicts that China’s defense budget in 2014 will
increase from US$139.2 billion in 2013 to US$148 billion.
By 2015, it will exceed the total sum of the British, French
and German defense spending combined.
“Jane’s" estimated that China defense expenditure will be
higher than that of any Western European country by 2024.
Currently, the U.S. is the world’s highest military spending
country.
It was US$ 574.9 billion in 2013 and reduced by 13%
compared to US$664.3 billion in 2012.
The U.S. is expected to continually reduce military
spending in the coming years.
Britain Defense Spending decreased by 3.6% in 2013
than the previous year.
On February 3, the UK’s “Daily Telegraph" website reported,
when the military power in Europe and the United States cut
military spending due to fiscal austerity, the expenditure is
rising fast in Asia and the Middle East.
The Daily Telegraph pointed out that another reason for Asia’s
military spending increase is neighboring countries felt threats
from China’s military aggression, disputes on “Diaoyu Island"
between China and Japan, as well as the following quarrel.
Last year, tensions were inflamed when China imposed a
self-declared “Air Defence Identification Zone" (ADIZ)
over Diaoyu Islands
“Jane’s Information Group" a senior analyst Craig Caffrey said:
“Australia, India and South Korea have increased their budget."
Caffrey believed that because the mood of distrust between
neighbors, the magnitude and speed of the rise in defense
spending will cause some instability, and possibly stimulate
increase in region military spending elsewhere.
Japan also improved the 2014 military budget even as they
restricted military budget in the long-term by fiscal austerity.
US Chinese media “Chinese affairs" chief editor Wu Fan:
“Two days ago, Kissinger said in Munich Security Conference
that Asia is more in a position of 19th-century Europe, the
situation of pre-war Britain and Germany."
Wu Fan said that the opposite momentum between China
and Japan is to go to war.
Early this year, at the Davos World Economic Forum (WEF),
the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe compared current
tensions between Japan and China to rivalry between Britain
and Germany on the eve of the First World war.
He said that the extensive trade between the two European
powers cannot stop the war; China and Japan also face a
similar situation now.
Jess Karotkin, the US Senior Intelligence Officer (SIO) of
Office of Naval Intelligence wrote his testimony to the
US-China Economic and Security Review Commission.
In it he states that China repeatedly improved its military
capability and strengthened military efforts to assert its rule
over the territory, leading to an arms race in Asia-Pacific.
Andrew Erickson, co-founder, China Maritime Studies Institute,
US Naval War College, said Chinese military budget growth
rate far exceeds those of Western militaries and its neighbors.
Jesse Karotkin said that you will notice China navy’s massive
growth rate if you are in Vietnam, Philippines and Malaysia.
The strategic competition or security dilemma will affect
these regions’ defense policies.
It will push these regions to invest resources in order to
enhance their military capability and counter-force.
Wu fan: “Xi Jinping moves faster than Hu Jintao and
Wen Jiabao. He is even faster than Jiang Zemin.
Because if he doesn’t do so, the regime won’t last long.
Once he took office, he emphasized a strong nation and
strong military to protect the Chinese Communist Party."
Wu Fan points out that although China lacks funding
in environmental care, healthcare, and education aspects,
and still has a large population in poverty, it spends a lot of
money on military.
The Chinese Communist Party cares about its dictatorship,
it doesn’t care about civilians’ livelihoods.
InterviewChangChun Edit/SongFeng Post-Production/ZhouTian
