【新唐人2014年01月09日讯】2013年岁末，中国银行业“钱荒”再起的当口，美联储宣布缩减“量化宽松（QE）”，双重压力下，中国大陆金融危机已悄然爆发。大陆独立财经评论员牛刀预言：现在一套房子的价钱，一、两年后可以买三套，房价将打回原形。而业界人士表示，中国货币泡沫破灭、及房价崩溃的真实面目，因为中共的刻意掩盖，将令老百姓付出沉重代价。
从上个月12月17号开始，中国银行业间市场短期拆借利率陡然震荡飙升，金融系统在“天量”货币投放之下仍闹“钱荒”，凸显大陆金融系统存在大量泡沫。
美联储宣布，从今年1月开始，“量化宽松(QE)”将逐渐退出。“QE”主要是指中央银行在实行零利率或近似零利率政策后，通过购买国债等中长期债券，增加基础货币供给，向市场注入大量流动性资金的干预方式。
大陆媒体报导，财经金融评论家余丰慧表示，“QE”退出，将造成中国内地市场流动性资金紧缺，房地产泡沫将被刺破，金融风险将爆发。
大陆独立财经评论人士“牛刀”也在1月7号的博文中指出，中国货币泡沫正在破灭之中，房价的崩溃首当其冲。
牛刀表示，中共当局在2009年滥发货币以后，看似上涨飞快的大陆房价，从对应的货币贬值幅度来看，实际房价却是一直下降，这就是货币泡沫，而这种货币泡沫破灭后房价将“打回原形”。
“牛刀”预言：现在一套房子的价钱，一、两年后，可以买三套。
大陆金融分析师任中道表示：中国房地产的泡沫，因货币泡沫的破灭，也正在逐渐的破裂。
大陆金融分析师任中道：“大陆房地产有价无市，有这个价格在飙升，但却没有这个市场，那因此它最后破裂的时候，房地产的房价肯定会大跌，那么，现在哪怕一套房值100万，那可能跌到一定程度，到1-2年或2-3年，那一套房子只有2、30万这样的情况，所以说现在的一套房子买以后的2、3套吧。”
“牛刀”在他的博文中还表示，大陆房价泡沫充斥着无数看似合理，实质上是彻头彻尾的谎言。如“炒楼都赚了钱”、“房子会升值”、“不买房价还会涨”等。
2000年，大陆浙江温州人开始在上海、杭州、苏州、厦门、北京、宁波、金华等地置业。据媒体报导，十几年来，温州炒房团如庄稼地里的“蝗灾”，所到之处，必然“扫走”当地大量房产。
美国“南卡罗莱纳大学”艾肯商学院教授谢田表示：钱荒泡沫增大的时候，肯定有人赚，但大部分人被套在里面，甚至血本无归。
美国南卡罗莱纳大学艾肯商学院教授谢田：“炒作出来一定有人赚，这些赚的人一定是在炒作脱手之后才赚，但被套牢的人是更多的人，赚钱的人是小部分人，是地方政府、房企、国有企业，国有银行他们赚钱。”
去年，中国四个一线城市的房价涨幅都超过20%，26个主要城市的涨幅超过10％。中共官方媒体6号也转载文章说，大陆三、四线城市爆发50多座鬼城，但一、二线城市房价将继续出现上涨的现象。
谢田：“老百姓被房市价格上涨、迅速上涨给吓坏了，害怕未来会长的更快、更加负担不起，实际上是老百姓被愚弄了、被欺骗了。因为在中国没有一个独立的透明的媒体，可以明确的告知人们这个房市的风险，这个实际上是，不管是掠夺也好，信息封锁也好，这个最后的根源就是由于中共。”
而面对楼市崩溃，政府会救市之说，牛刀表示：有枪就是草头王，有良知的人是少之又少。这几年的经济增长完全建立在几千万“房奴”几十年的打拼上，他们将彻底毁了这一生。
谢田表示，中共这2年会继续维持或推高房价，银行钱荒可能会继续出现，而银根紧缩，迫使中共继续印钞票救助，进一步引发通货膨胀，让老百姓更加苦不堪言。
采访编辑/易如 后制/周天
Scholars Expose Chinese Communist Party Lies:
China’s House Prices Will Drop to One-Third
As China’s cash squeeze worsened again at year end, the
Federal Reserve announced a reduction of its monthly
quantitative-easing (QE) program.
Burdened by both, China’s finance system may have quietly
seen an upcoming crisis.
A Chinese independent finance commentator Niu Dao said
one or two years later the house prices will only be one
third of the current level.
A scholar commented that, the Chinese Communist Party
(CCP) was hiding the truth of China’s serious inflation and
collapsing house market.
The Chinese will have to pay a heavy price for it.
Since Dec. 17, there has been a sudden spike in China’s
short-term inter-bank rates.
Despite a huge amount of money injection into the finance
system, China’s cash crunch has not been eased.
This clearly shows how big China’s economic bubble is.
In addition, the Federal Reserve announced that the
quantitative-easing (QE) program will gradually be stopped.
QE refers to a central banks’ intervention policy after zero
or close to zero interest rate is applied.
QE is implemented by purchasing middle – or long-term
financial assets to increase the monetary base and produce
more market liquidity.
Chinese media quoted financial commentator Yu Fenghui.
Yu said, the end of QE will lead to worsened market liquidity
in mainland China.
The house bubble may blow up, leading to extremely
high financial risks.
Niu Dao, a Chinese independent finance commentator,
posted a blog article on Jan. 7.
He said, China’s monetary bubble is on its way to blow up,
which will immediately result in collapsing house prices.
Niu Dao said, it is the CCP excessively printing money in 2009
that pushed China’s house prices to surge.
If including the factor of currency depreciation, China’s house
prices are indeed dropping these past years.
After such a “monetary bubble" bursts, house prices will
apparently drop its “real value".
Niu Dao thus predicted that the current house prices will
drop to one-third in one or two years.
Chinese financial analyst Ren Zhongdao said China’s house
bubble is bursting along with the “monetary bubble".
Ren Zhongdao, Chinese financial analyst: “China’s house
prices are not supported by a real market.
We see surging prices but can’t see the corresponding market.
When the bubble finally blows up there must be a huge
dive in house prices.
For example, if you buy a house with a million Yuan right now,
after one-to-two or two-to-three years probably it will be
only worth 200,000 or 300,000 Yuan.
So we say you can buy two or three houses in the future with
the same amount of money for one house right now."
On his blog, Niu Dao also said China’s house market is full of
out-and-out lies which seem reasonable at first glance.
Examples are “real estate speculation always makes profit",
“house values will rise" and “you will have to pay more for
a house in the future".
Since 2000, the riches from Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province
had purchased many properties in cities including Shanghai,
Hangzhou, Suzhou, Xiamen, Beijing, Ningbo and Jinhua.
Chinese media reported that the Wenzhou real estate
speculation group acted like locusts in the past decade.
They “swept" through the local house market
wherever they had gone.
Xie Tian, Professor of University of South Carolina Aiken,
said some will become icher as the inflation worsens.
However, most people will suffer loss of property,
or even lose all their assets.
Xie Tian, Professor of University of South Carolina Aiken:
“Speculation will definitely make some people richer.
However, they have to make profits after disposing of
those houses. A lot more will be trapped into the game.
Those who become richer are only a small part, including
housing enterprises, state-owned enterprises and local
governments. They make money from this process."
Last year, four of China’s first-tier cities saw more than 20%
increase in house prices.
Twenty-six major cities saw an increase over 10%.
The CCP’s mouthpiece media quoted an article on Jan. 6,
saying despite more than 50 “ghost towns" in China’s third-
or fourth-tier cities, house prices in first- and second-tier
cities continue to rise.
Xie Tian:"Chinese civilians are simply appalled by
surging house prices.
They are afraid that they have to spend more
on a house in the future.
The truth is, most Chinese have been fooled on this issue, as
there are no independent or transparent media in China to
clarify the risks in the house market.
No matter if we call this plunder or information block,
the Communist Party is the mastermind of everything."
Some Chinese still believe that the CCP will bail the house
market out to prevent a crash.
Niu Dao commented that, most Chinese had lost their
conscience and only believe in power.
The truth is, China’s economic growth these past years is
completely based on tens of millions of “mortgage slaves"
suffering in the next several decades.
Their lives have been completely messed up.
Xie Tian said, the party would still try to keep the current
house price in the next several years.
The cash shortage of the banking system may come again,
which will force the CCP to print more money.
Consequently, Chinese civilians will suffer even more from
the worsening inflation.
Interview & Edit/YiRu Post-Production/ZhouTian
