【新唐人2013年12月18日讯】朝鲜二号人物张成泽被处决后，中共方面的反应，与中、朝两国关系，成为外界关注的焦点。最近，朝鲜当局“开始召回在中国的朝鲜商务人员”。分析人士认为，这是以张成泽为首的朝鲜亲中派势力，将被彻底清剿的信号。而朝鲜这种对中共近乎“打脸”的行为，却再一次被当局容忍。
据《韩国联合通讯社》引述消息来源说，朝鲜处决张成泽后，已经开始召回在中国沈阳、丹东等地从事贸易和投资的朝鲜人。又计划分期、分批将朝鲜驻中国的所有官员都召回国。
《韩联社》援引分析人士的话说，这可能是要镇压那些被视为张成泽派的人物。
美国中文杂志《北京之春》主编胡平：“这是进一步整肃的信号，他不相信这些人，他担心这些人会和中共有一种特殊的联系，所以他现在就把朝鲜驻中国的人全部召回，至少要有一个‘大换班’，换上他信任的人。另外他恐怕也想试图通过把这些人召回，进一步去查清楚张成泽的势力和中共到底有些什么样的联系。”
美国中文杂志《北京之春》主编胡平指出，张成泽与中共的关系极为密切，这恰恰是金家王朝最为忌讳的。
胡平：“朝鲜政权来说，它一方面是名义上把中共当成他最大盟友，同时他也认定你是他最危险的敌人。因为只有你，只有中共才有力量在他们(朝鲜)内部搞政变。所以它就一方面又跟你特别好，一方面又特别警惕你，特别防范你。从金日成起，一直到金正恩都对清除内部的亲中势力是不遗余力，非常残酷。”
令人不理解的是，金正恩明知处死张成泽会惹恼中共，却仍然不顾一切的这样做了，甚至摆开架势要彻底整肃“张成泽一党”，打击朝鲜的亲中势力。胡平认为，就是因为金正恩敢赌，他相信中共无论多恼火，也不敢对他采取什么措施。
胡平：“现在北京对平壤非常头大，它不知道怎么办好，它怎么办都不好。金家就吃准了这个，把你吃定了。它知道你不敢抛弃它，而且你唯一能做到的，就是在朝鲜搞一个宫廷政变，如果这一招你做不到，那你就拿我无可奈何了。”
事实证明，金正恩果然赌对了。对于他打击朝鲜亲中势力这种对中共近乎“打脸”的行为，中共不但没有制裁或报复，反而用妥协、无力的态度对此作了回应。
12月9号，张成泽被“双开”的消息一发布，中共当局就表态：“这是朝鲜内部事务。”随后，一向以对外强硬著称的中共喉舌《环球时报》发表社论，明确的说：“张成泽落马证明了金正恩大权在握，牢牢控制着全国形势”，并且说：“金正恩还年轻，未来将会是决定朝鲜命运的决定性人物”。
不仅如此，中共还提出“中、朝都应为促成金正恩早日访华积极创造条件”。而在此之前，金正恩几次提出要访问中国，中共当局都没有回应。
胡平：“金氏政权它毕竟在性质上、在名义上和中共政权是一类的。都是以共产革命起家的专制政权。因此，朝鲜政权的崩溃、垮台，就不可避免的会对中国的政治产生冲击。那么它一旦垮台，它的所有罪恶都暴露于天下，那么就会让中共内部引起很大的震荡。所以它虽然现在很不喜欢朝鲜政权，但是它更担心现在的朝鲜政权崩溃掉。”
不过，美国智库“兰德战略研究所（Rand）”近期公布，金正恩曾在去年遭到暗杀，而且传出暗杀金正恩事件的时间，正好朝鲜军方出现权力斗争，如果暗杀行动成功，朝鲜在没有有明确的继承人情况下，劳动党及军队可能出现分裂，甚至引发内战。
这篇《应对朝鲜体制崩溃》的报告，依据朝鲜政权的非法性、经济现状、镇压国民等计算的“崩溃国家指数”颇高，因此报告认为﹕朝鲜政权的崩溃只是时间问题。
采访编辑/张天宇 后制/陈建铭
Chinese Communist Party Keeps Silent
on Kim Jong-un’s Challenge
After the execution of Kim Jong-un’s uncle, Jang Song-thaek,
focus remains on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) reaction
and the relationship between the two Communist regimes.
North Korea’s recent recall of its expatriates in China is said
to be a purge of those who are in Jang’s pro-China faction.
The CCP, however, has been silent on what is seemingly
a slap on the face by North Korea.
South Korean Yonhap News reports quoted sources saying
after the execution of Jang Song-thaek, North Korea began
summoning its businessmen in Shenyang and Dandong.
The plan seems to be bringging all officials and staff
home from China in stages.
Analysts told Yonhap the move was to suppress Jang’s allies.
Hu Ping, editor of Beijing Spring magazine: “This is a signal
for a further purge.
He does not trust these people, for their connection to the CCP.
There will be a major shift in personnel, with people he can trust.
He could also intend to identify the exact connection of
Jang’s faction in China to the CCP. “
Beijing Spring editor Hu Ping says the very close relationship
between Jang Song-thaek and the CCP was taboo to Kim.
Hu Ping: “To North Korea, the CCP is its biggest ally but also
its most dangerous enemy.
Only the CCP has the capacity to engage in the internal coup
in North Korea.
Since Kim Il-sung, North Korea has been maintaining
a very good but vigilant relationship with the CCP.
The cruel purge of pro-China forces in the regime
has never stopped, even up to Kim Jong-un."
Knowing the execution of Jang Song-thaek may annoy the
CCP, Kim Jong-un still conducted the entire purge plan to
attack the pro-China forces within North Korea.
Hu Ping says that Kim Jong-un is betting on the fact
that the CCP won’t dare to react to his movement.
Hu Ping: “Pyongyang has become a tough call for Beijing.
The Kim dynasty has figured that out.
They know the CCP would not dare to desert North Korea,
but at most might engage in a palace coup.
The CCP could do nothing against it."
As it turns out, Kim Jong-un was right. The CCP has given a
rather weak and compromising response to North Korea’s
movement to purge the pro-China forces.
When Jang was expelled from the party and official post on
Dec. 9, the CCP stated that it was “an internal affair”.
Later, the CCP English mouthpiece Global Times commented
in an editorial that Jang’s fall shows “its leader has the ability
to control the situation”.
It also emphasized: “Kim Jong-un is young, which can
possibly become the country’s decisive factor in promoting
the nation to move forward”.
Further more, it stated that “China should help bring about
Kim Jong-un’s visit to China as soon as possible”, which
was neglected by the CCP in the past when Kim proposed to
visit China on several occasions.
Hu Ping: “After all, the Kim regime is nominally the same as
the CCP as well as in the nature of it’s tyranny.
So North Korea’s collapse will inevitably
shock the CCP regime in China.
The collapse will expose all the evilness of Communism.
Even though the Kim regime is not a favorable to the CCP,
they’re more concerned about the collapse of North Korea."
American think tank Rand Corporation recently published a
report mentioning that Kim Jong-un reportedly survived an
assassination attempt in 2012, “during a power struggle in a
military bureau”.
It also says North Korea could suddenly collapse if Kim were
assassinated, “leaving no clear successor and the potential
division of the senior North Korean leadership into factions
that would likely wage civil war against each other.”
In this research report entitled, “Preparing for the Possibility
of a North Korean Collapse,” it stated that the North Korean
regime exhibits many aspects of a failed state.
According to the measurements of the regime’s illegality,
economic situation, and suppression of the people, North
Korea has a high rank on the Failed States Index.
The report says: “North Korean Government Collapse
Appears to Be More a Matter of Time.”
Interview & Edit/Zhang Tianyu Post-Production/Chen Jianming
