【新唐人2013年12月11日讯】8号，朝鲜召开劳动党中央政治局扩大会议，宣布朝鲜最高领导人金正恩的姑父张成泽(Jang Song Thaek)，犯有反党反革命行为，已解除他一切职务，并开除他的党籍。而张成泽是辅佐金正恩接班的“摄政王”，素来与中共关系密切，这一事件是否会影响中、朝未来的关系？我们来看看专家的分析。
67岁的张成泽，被认为是朝鲜领导层的第二号人物，解职前，任职朝鲜劳动党中央政治局委员、北韩国防委员会副委员长、和劳动党中央行政部部长，具有人民军大将军军衔。
2011年底，朝鲜前领导人金正日突然离世，张成泽辅佐当时年轻、没有政治经验的金正恩上台。张成泽被视为金正恩背后的“摄政王”。
两年后的今天，12月8号，金正恩在平壤主持了劳动党中央政治局扩大会议，会议宣布解除张成泽的一切职务、剥夺一切头衔、并开除党籍，而张成泽本人则被当场抓捕。
朝鲜通讯社《朝中社》12月9号发布朝鲜当局《关于张成泽事件公报》，公报中对他的指控包括﹕反党、反革命、结党营私、卖国、贪腐、吸毒、赌博和生活作风不正等。
《德国之声》专访韩国首尔“阿登纳基金会”的专家艾甚保恩（Norbert Eschborn），他表示：近两年来，朝鲜有许多曾经权倾一时的军方和党内领导人失踪。今天看来，他们恐怕是在金正恩巩固权力的过程中被去职。
韩国首尔国立大学统一研究院（ Institute for National Unification in Seoul）的高级研究员郑永泰(Jeung Young-tae)也向《德国之声》表示，张成泽这次是彻底落马，因为一山容不得二虎。
韩国媒体援引情报部门的消息说，张成泽可能在上个月就已经被解职，张的两个亲信也因为腐败罪名被处决，另一名亲信则叛逃到中国寻求韩国庇护。
韩国《YTN》有线新闻网在报导中说，这名掌管张成泽资金的亲信，两个月前向韩国提出政治庇护，目前在中国的一个秘密地点并受到韩国官员的保护。据说此人了解金正恩家族的资金情况。
此外，张成泽与朝鲜的盟友——中共关系紧密，曾在2012年访问北京。
那么张成泽的落马，对中朝关系是否带来影响？
美国哥伦比亚大学政治学博士李天笑认为，不会有任何影响，原因有三。
李天笑：“首先，朝鲜内部的任何变动，都是小范围的调整，它只不过是在某些方面，可能会在迎合中共方面有一些跟原来不同的区别，但是在大的方面他还是总的要听中共的。”
此外，朝鲜一波一波的清洗，金正恩的权利得到了巩固，李天笑指出，实际上金正恩一直在中共的扶持下，当年金正日带着金正恩到中国，求得当时中共高层的接受，中共高层已经答应把金正恩作为朝鲜的接班人来扶持。
李天笑：“所以说他双方的关系就是一种默契，所以金正恩他现在处理谁，不处理谁，其实中共应该是得到某种风声，或者说金正恩在某些方面，会给中共一种暗示，实际也得到中共的首肯。”
李天笑还指出，中共和朝鲜的政治格局，整个的政治体制是一致的，整肃的方式，和中共同出一辙。
李天笑：“中共历史上到现在为止，一直是按照这种方式在党内来进行整肃，然后，通过内斗来把自己的政治对手搞掉，然后巩固自己的权利，但对人民来说，其实没有任何的帮助，人民照样受苦，照样受迫害，所以我想从这几点来看，中朝的关系不会有任何大的改变。”
中共当局对朝鲜政坛这场动荡，没有做太多的表态，中国外交部发言人洪磊9号在例行记者会上回应说，“我们注意到了相关报导。这是朝鲜内部事务。”
采访编辑/常春 后制/李勇
Will Jang Song-thaek’s Arrest Affect China-North Korea Relations?
On December 8, North Korea held a Workers’ Party politburo
assembly and announced that
Kim Jong-un’s uncle Jang Song-thaek has been dismissed
from all his posts and was expelled from the party.
However, Jang is Kim Jong-un’s assistant,
he helped Kim take office.
Jang had a close association with China,
will the move affect the two countries’ relationship?
Let’s take a look.
Jang Song-thaek, age 67, was considered a second man
in North Korea.
He served as a member of Workers’ Party Central Committee,
deputy chairman of the National Defense Commission,
director of Workers Party Central Administration Department,
and has the rank of People’s Army major general.
At end of 2011, when Kim Jong-il, former leader
of North Korea suddenly died, Jang assisted Kim Jong-un,
who at the time was young and lacked political experience,
to take office.
Jang was said to be manipulative of Kim Jong-un.
Two years later, on December 8, Kim chaired
the central meeting.
The meeting announced Jang’s dismissal, stripped him
of all his positions and expelled him from the party.
Jang was publicly arrested at the assembly hall.
On December 9, North Korea news agency KCNA
issued a communiqué.
The communiqué accused Jang of being
a counter-revolutionary, anti-state activities,
and committing betrayal, corruption, drug abuse,
gambling as well as womanizing.
Deutsche Welle (DW) interviewed Norbert Eschborn, expert
at Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Seoul, South Korea.
He said that over the past two years, many North Korean
leaders who had a powerful military and party influence
went missing.
We can tell from today’s events that these people were likely
removed during the process of Kim’s power consolidation.
Jeung Young-tae, senior researcher at the Institute
for National Unification in Seoul, also told DW that
Jang has been completely removed this time, because
“two tigers cannot live on the same mountain.”
South Korea’s media cited intelligence information which
revealed Jang likely was removed last month,
and his two relatives were executed on charges of corruption.
One of his relatives escaped to China
and applied for asylum in South Korea.
South Korea’s YTN news channel reported that this relative,
who controls Jang’s assets, applied for political asylum
in South Korea two months ago.
He stayed at a secret location in China
under South Korean official’s protection.
Sources say that this person knows
Kim Jong-un family’s financial details.
Jang had close contact with the Chinese Communist
Party (CCP). He visited Beijing in 2012.
Will Jang’s downfall affect China and North Korea’s
relationship?
Dr. Li Tianxiao of Columbia University political science
department says that it won’t have any affect.
Li Tianxiao: “Any changes within North Korea
are small adjustments.
In some way, in the aspect of North Korea wanting
to curry favor to the CCP, it may have some difference.
In broad terms, they still need to listen to the CCP.”
In addition, in North Korea’s wave of purging
Kim Jong-un has consolidated his power.
Li Tianxiao says that actually, Kim Jong-un has always
been supported by the CCP.
At the time when his father took him to visit China, they
expected the CCP high-level to accept Kim Jong-un.
the CCP promised to support him
as North Korean’s successor.
Li Tianxiao: “The both countries had a tacit agreement.
Thus if Kim Jong-un wanted to remove someone
the CCP would have known earlier.
Somehow, Kim Jong-un would give the CCP
some type of hint.
Actually, it has been agreed on by the CCP.”
Li Tianxiao points out that the CCP and North Korea
have the same political pattern.
Their entire political system is consistent.
The method of purging in North Korea
is the same as the CCP’s.
Li Tianxiao: “In the CCP history up until today,
the CCP always uses this way to purge within the party –
through internal struggle it clears out its political
opponents and consolidates the power.
However, it doesn’t do any good for its people.
The people are still suffering and being persecuted.
From this point of view, I will say that China and
North Korea’s relationship will not have major changes.”
The Chinese regime didn’t respond much
about North Korea’s move.
The foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said in a press
conference on December 9 that,
“We have noticed relevant reports.
That is North Korea’s internal affairs.”
