【新唐人2013年11月30日讯】中共突然单方面宣称设立“东海防空识别区”，连日来引发东海局势紧张。美、日、韩不理会中共的规定，三国军机“平安无事”的接连飞越那一地区，中共被迫提出所谓“严正交涉”。尽管中共事前的严厉警告和事后低调、顾左右而言他的声明，在民间舆论中饱受嘲讽，但也有评论认为，中共的做法已经惹怒了美、日等国。到底这个地区会否爆发战争？一起来听听专家分析。
中共上周末宣布实施“东海防空识别区”时，军方放出豪言，声称对不服从防空识别区管制的外国飞行器可以击落。但先后进入中共划设的“防空识别区”的美、日、韩三国战机，都没有遇到拦截的风险。
在众目睽睽和一片奚落声下，中共先是长时间保持沉默，假装没事，然后低调做出反应。军方和外交部声称，对美国轰炸机进行了“全程监视、及时识别”，判明了美方飞机类别，但不再用“紧急处置措施”或“击落”之类的狠话。28号，中共军方表示，已经派遣一系列主战飞机前往中国东海“防空识别区”进行所谓“常态化空中巡逻”。
与此同时，英国《路透社》报导，在“东海防空识别区”争议升级的同时，中共第一艘航空母舰“辽宁舰”26号也启航南海，然而取道台湾海峡，不绕经巴士海峡，避开了有争议的东海水域。
29号，台湾《中央社》引述美国有线电视新闻网《CNN》的报导说，美国航空母舰“乔治华盛顿号”开抵日本冲绳南方的太平洋，与日本展开大规模联合军演。由于此处正好接近中共新宣布划设的“东海防空识别区”，因此这次演习特别耐人寻味。外界不少声音发问：东海地区到底会不会爆发战争？
中国问题专家石实：“这次它（中共）等于惹了众怒了。这个局势下我认为是不会爆发战争的。为什么呢？你去看国防部的反应。国防部在美国军机进入之后，它（中共）的反应非常的弱。说明它不想把这个事情弄大，或者说它们内部还没有下结论。所以在这种情况下，无论南韩飞机进去还是日本飞机进去，暂时不会有事。”
旅美政论家伍凡也认为，战争很不容易打起来，主要有两大原因。
旅美政论家伍凡:“ 第一，双方都没有准备好。日本老百姓也不想打仗。中国老百姓想打仗吗？也不想打仗，中国老百姓想打仗的真正目地是把中共搞垮。 再一个，美国更不愿意打仗。美国国库欠了17亿兆的钱，哪有力量打仗呢？但是美国又不得不出面，它支持日本的目地就是要制止战争，不让那个战争打起来。所以中国（中共）有一批人想玩把戏。”
美国《大纪元新闻网》报导，防空识别区事件曝光了三中全会后，中共高层全乱套了。
中国维权律师滕彪在此之前接受《德国之声》采访时表示，中共政权需要敌人，因此即便没有反抗，中共也要制造出敌人来。
中国问题专家石实分析，看中、日会否发生战争，一个最主要的风向标，要看日本的商用飞机在经过防空区的时候，当它不事先向中共通报的时候，会不会被迫降。
石实：“这是很重要的一个信号。可以看出中共的决心有多大。中、日之间商业飞机如果能互通，而没有军机去迫降它的话，那就说明这个防空区纯粹是一个试探。”
在27号的中共外交部例会上，有记者问道，对于美、日做法，中方是否担心“东海防空识别区”将被认为是“纸老虎”？中共外交部发言人秦刚回答：“纸老虎”这个词是有特别含意的。可以查查当年毛泽东说“纸老虎”指的是什么。
秦刚还在28号北京的例行记者会上表示，中方已分别向日方和美方提出所谓的“严正交涉”，但也引来外界大量的嘲讽，认为中共只会对内“维稳”，对外则“光说不练”。
《美国之音》的报导援引了世界各地报章的看法后，讥笑中共这只活灵活现的“纸老虎”就这样出炉了。而且可谓一夜之间火遍全球。
采访/陈汉 编辑/王子琦 后制/李勇
Will Abrupt Tensions in the East China Sea Lead to War?
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) suddenly and unilaterally
declared a Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the East
China Sea, which has added to recent tensions in the area.
The U.S., Japan and South Korea
disregard the CCP’s new zone.
Military aircraft from these three countries “safely” flew
the area from time to time, which forced the CCP to lodge
so called “solemn representations”.
Despite the prior strict warning, followed by a low tone
and pointless statement, the CCP has been widely mocked
by Chinese netizens.
Some critics agree that the CCP’s actions in this area
have irritated Japan, the U.S. and other countries.
Will the area see violent conflict in the end?
Let’s hear the experts’ analysis.
Last weekend, when the CCP declared an ADIZ
in the East China Sea, the military said in a high tone
that it would shoot down any foreign aircraft that fail to follow
the ADIZ regulation for the area.
However, South Korean, Japanese and U.S. military planes
consecutively entered into the CCP designated ADIZ
without any risk of interception.
Under the ridicule and watchful eyes and of the public ,
the CCP kept silent a long time, pretending nothing happened,
and then made a low-key response.
The military and the Foreign Affair Ministry clarified,
they ‘made a full journey monitoring and timely identification
on the U.S. bombardment aircraft, and knew the aircraft type,’
but without the ruthless words such as “shoot down”
or “emergency defense measures”.
On November 28, the CCP military said a series of their major
aircraft types have been dispatched to the ADIZ
for so-called “normalized air patrolling”.
Meanwhile, Reuters reported that during the escalating ADIZ
dispute, the first CCP’s aircraft carrier “Liaoning” voyaged
to the South China Sea via the Taiwan Strait without detouring
on the Bass Strait, which avoided the disputed East China Sea.
On November 29, Taiwan’s Central News Agency cited CNN
reports that American aircraft carrier George Washington
arrived in the Pacific region just to the south of Okinawa to
join in a large-scale joint war exercise with Japan.
Because this region is very close to the ADIZ,
the war exercise is particularly highlighted.
Many are wondering if war will erupt in the East China Sea.
Shi Shi, China expert: “This time the CCP outraged the public.
Under such a circumstance, I think war won’t break out.
Why? Just look at the CCP Defense Ministry’s response.
The Ministry gave a very weak reaction after U.S. military
aircraft entered the ADIZ, showing that they don’t want to
escalate the event, or there is no conclusion in its inside.
So under this circumstance, even if South Korean or Japanese
aircraft entered the ADIZ, there won’t be a problem.”
Chinese political commentator Wu Fang living in U.S.
says war would be difficult to break out for two key reasons.
Wu Fang: “First, both of the parties are not well prepared.
Japanese people don’t want to fight a war.
Do you think Chinese people want to fight one?
They don’t either.
Chinese peoples’ real goal of supporting war is the CCP’s collapse.
Secondly, Americans prefer even more not to fight a war.
The total debt of American Government has reached 17
trillion dollars, and they have no power to fight.
But America must stand up, and its purpose of supporting
Japan is to stop war.
The CCP has a number of people who want to play a game.”
The Chinese version of US-based Epoch Times News Website
reports that the ADIZ event exposes the turmoil status
among high ranks of the CCP following the third plenum.
Previously, Chinese rights defense lawyer Teng Biao said that
the CCP regime needs an enemy.
Thus even if there is no resistance,
the CCP will have to produce enemy.
Chinese expert Shi Shi says a key sign of a Sino-Japan war
is to see if the commercial Japanese flights are forced to land
when passing through the ADIZ without prior notice.
Shi Shi: “This is a very important signal. From it,
the determination of the CCP will be revealed.
If commercial flights can be made between China and Japan
without forced landing by military aircraft,
then this explains that the ADIZ is purely a trial.”
During the routine media news conference held on the 27th by
the CCP’s Foreign Affairs Ministry, one journalist asked if
China worries that the ADIZ is just a “paper tiger”
in light of the current actions of the U.S. and Japan.
Ministry spokesman Qin Gang replied that “paper tiger”
had a special meaning, and suggested looking up what
the “Paper Tiger” mentioned by Mao Zedong referred to.
Qin Gang said at another press conference on the 28th that
China lodged a “Solemn Representation” to Japan and the U.S.
But it incurred a lot of ridicule, leaving the impression that the
CCP is only good at “Maintaining Stability” in China
and being “all talk and no action” outside China.
Voice of America cited reports mocking the CCP as a living
image of the “Paper Tiger”.
And with that the term became popular worldwide overnight.
