【新唐人2013年10月21日讯】近年来，中国大陆民怨沸腾，群体抗暴事件此起彼伏。中共政权面临内忧外患、充满重重危机。这种情况下，海内外各界包括中共高层内部，都在纷纷议论中共何时垮台、如何垮台的问题。
《德国之声》中文网18号引用美国克莱蒙特•麦肯纳学院教授裴敏欣的话预测：在未来10至15年间，中国会出现“突然的、无序的变革”，也就是中共“政权垮台”。
裴敏欣谈到，“这个政权挺过了许多危机，但不可能长此以往下去”。他认为，伴随着每次危机，中共维持统治的成本都在上升，这包括：不断膨胀的警察机构和政治审查系统。同时，政府机构臃肿、严重环境污染、社会老龄化等问题，都没有得到解决。而中产阶级从体制中疏离，更是有史以来第一次，凸显中共执政危机。
时事评论员林子旭则认为，中共就是明天突然垮掉，也很正常。
时事评论员林子旭：“中共在过去的几十年里做过的坏事太多太多了，这些原罪目前通过网络正在被大面积的曝光出来，这些真相犹如一把把利剑，在网络技术高度发达的今天，正在势不可挡的刺向中共。”
2008年欧美金融危机爆发后，中共当局为了摆脱困境，大量增发货币刺激经济增长。这使得原本就已经产能过剩的中国经济泡沫化越发严重。不少经济专家指出，因为出口下滑、私营企业频频倒闭等问题，中国经济已经处于硬着陆之中。
据渣打银行估计，中国地方政府债务规模已达24万亿元左右。大陆审计署2012年进行的评测显示，中国有9个省会城市的债务率超过100%，负债最高的城市债务率达219.57%。同时，德意志银行估计，中国“影子银行”的资金规模有21万亿，也有预测认为高达40万亿。而房地产过热则是众所周知的问题。
金融分析师任中道：“地方债、影子银行、房地产（的问题）这方面严重，如果出现问题的话，也是导致中共从经济上的崩溃。”
美国纽约城市大学政治学教授夏明认为，对中共来说，目前有四个致命因素：第一，中共专制体制违背世界潮流；第二，中共官员的贪腐已经无法制约﹔第三，越来越多的民众觉醒并抛弃中共﹔此外，中国经济危机已经爆发。
美国纽约城市大学政治学教授夏明：“从它目前折腾的情况来看，我相信习近平不可能再有第二个任期。我感觉在未来的5年之内，中共会出现大的危机。”
上个月，英国《金融时报》报导，甚至在中共中央党校内部，都在公开讨论中共崩溃的问题。在中国内外，越来越多的人相信，中共已经处于垂死状态。
时事评论员林子旭表示，目前中共已经具备了亡党的所有条件，只差一个突破口。也就是，现在对中共来说处处是干柴，只是在等一个火种。
采访/易如 编辑/李谦 后制/李智远
Experts Speculate Collapse of Communist China
In recent years, many protests have occurred in China.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is
facing many internal and external crises.
Is time up for the CCP, and what does this mean?
This question has become a hot topic for people inside
and outside China including high-levels of the CCP.
The Chinese version of Deutsche Welle cited
Professor Pei Minxin, Claremont Mckenna College.
Pei speculates that in the next 10 to 15 years, there will
occur a sudden, disorderly change in Communist China.
Pei thinks the CCP will collapse.
Pei says the regime has survived in many
crises, but it is impossible to continue like this.
Pei believes that with each crisis, the funds
needed for the CCP to maintain stability increase.
This includes expanding surveillance
agencies and internet censorship systems.
Problems of government overstaffing, environmental
pollution, and an aging society remain unresolved.
The middle-class is gradually moving away from the regime.
This is the first time this has occurred in the CCP’s history.
This highlights the CCP’s crises of legitimacy.
Lin Zixu, current affairs commentator says it is
understandable if the CCP collapses tomorrow.
Lin Zixu: “The CCP has committed
too many crimes over the past decades.
Its crimes are being largely exposed via the internet.
All these truths are like sharp swords, stabbing at the
CCP through today’s advanced network technologies.”
After the European and US financial crisis outbreak in 2008,
the CCP issued printing of large amounts of bank notes.
This was to stimulate economic growth,
in order to get rid of the crisis in China.
However, this made the already
overstretched economic bubble worsen.
Some economists say that because exportation has
declined, private enterprises are frequently bankrupt.
China’s economy is heading for a hard landing.
The Standard Chartered Bank estimated that Chinese local
government debt has reached 24 trillion yuan ($3.94 trillion).
The 2012 audit shows that nine capital
cities had a debt ratio exceeding 100%.
The highest debt ratio reached 219.57%.
Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank says China’s shadow banking
has 21 trillion of funds, with some estimates at 40 trillion.
The over heated real estate is a well-known problem.
Ren Zhongdao, financial analyst: “Local debts,
shadow banking, and real estate problems are serious.
If the worst thing happens, it certainly
can collapse the CCP in financially.”
Xia Ming, Professor in Political Science, City University of
New York says there are four deadly factors for the CCP.
CCP authoritarian dictatorship is against the world
trend; it is also unable to control corruption amongst
officials; more people are awakening and abandoning
the CCP; and China’s economic crisis has broken out.”
Xia Ming: “From its current situation, I speculate
that Xi Jinping won’t hold a second term.
In the next five years, the CCP will face a great crisis.”
Last month, The Financial Times reported that
“Even at the Central Party School there is talk
of the unthinkable: the collapse of the CCP”.
More and more people in China and overseas
believe that the CCP has run into a dead end.
Lin Zixu says the CCP shows all the conditions of
collapse, and only needs to hit a breakthrough point.
There is firewood stacked everywhere around
the CCP, and now it’s just waiting for a spark.
