【新唐人2013年09月30日讯】在中国实体经济疲软的同时，今年一线城市房价和地价却涨幅惊人，而地方政府也并不像以前一样，出来一些限制措施，相反，在数量庞大的三、四线城市遍布“空城”的情况下，地方政府加快城镇化建设却没有减慢步伐。外界认为，中共为了实现所谓保增长目标，加上地方债务偿债的巨大压力，在宏观经济不景气，通过调整产业结构也不能达到目地的情况下，只好回归依赖房地产的死路上。
最近，不仅北京农业展览馆地块的楼面地价，拍出了每平米7万3千元的天价，上海也出了新地王—-“新鸿基”以217亿7千万元赢得了“徐家汇中心”项目的开发权。而广州、杭州、武汉等地的新地王们也在涌现。
美国南卡罗莱纳大学艾肯商学院教授：“(我们)看一看北京、上海这些地王，是谁在购买﹖实际上我们发现，都是国有的房地产大企业他们自己在购买。仔细说白了，是中共政府自己在购买，把房地产的价格、地皮的价格炒了起来，再卖给老百姓。”
美国“南卡罗莱纳大学艾肯商学院”教授谢田指出，如果房地产价格降下来，中国经济必然放缓，随之而来的，是失业率增加，以及出现社会动乱，因而中共政府不会真心希望房价降下来。对于地方政府来说，前些年卖地和基础建设，给他们带来了升迁和发财的机会，更不希望房价降下来。
9月17号，英国《金融时报》刊文指出，新一届政府在政策上刻意回避地产调控，同时又推动“城镇化”，再加上“救市”预期，以及承诺“收入倍增”目标。另外，人们对通胀的预期又非常强烈，担心如果现在不买这些已经每平米高达2万到3万元的房子，未来可能永远也买不起，因而北京远郊楼盘刚开，就出现了恐慌性抢购潮。
北京、上海、广州等城市的抢购风潮，又反过来为地方政府提供了趁机高价出让土地的机会。今年上半年，一线城市的土地出让收入创下历史记录。进入9月以后的“地王”，大多位于城市的黄金区域，政府选择这些地块在这个时候拍卖，无疑会给楼市制造更大的恐慌，引诱人们买房。
“四川社会科学院新闻传播研究所”所长张立伟，在《地产泡沫将摧毁中国神话》一文中分析，中共政府“放纵”地产业疯狂，其中的一个原因是“保增长”需要，上半年中国GDP增长逐步回落，新一届政府有保增长的压力。
不过，张立伟在文章中指出，这是一个毁灭性的策略，虽然人口众多的一线城市还有刚性需求存在，但地价的上涨会让低购买力的群体，最终无力承担继续攀升的房价，市场供需之间的链条最终会断裂，“击鼓传花的游戏”总会落幕。
谢田：“共产党统治集团，它能够得以支持，就是钱来支持，体现在哪里呢﹖就是体现在房地产财政上，尤其是经济放缓的时候，如果任其房地产泡沫破灭，那它等于在银行作为担保的土地都没了的话，那实际上它的债务也全还不了了，债务一旦破灭的话，不光是地方政府会破产，会带动中国那些银行，国有银行的破产。”
据《中国经济周刊》分析，2011年，如果把北京的土地全部卖掉，可以制造出超过美国一年的GDP总量。现在北京，一个指甲盖儿大小的地方，最高能卖4块多人民币。
北京天则经济研究所副所长冯兴元：“现在主要是住房供给比较单一，他不让你自己去买地，自己去建房，合作社建房或者互助储蓄之类的，没有这类东西，就是单一的从开发商那里买房子，加上土地一级市场是政府买方垄断，低价从农民那里进，储备以后再高价挂市场出售。 ”
《新华社》8月底报导，地方政府偿还债务巨大，多个地方政府酝酿上调基准地价。此举可能抬高未来土地出让的底价，进而为地价上涨提供动力。
“北京天则经济研究所”副所长冯兴元还指出，中国目前闲置的房子很多，但短期内出台征收房产税的政策困难很大，因为其中特权阶层拥有的房子也多。
采访编辑/刘惠 后制/舒灿
China Housing Costs Surge as CCP Seeks Economic Growth
As China’s real economy worsens, house and land prices
in its first-tier cities continue to increase at
an astonishingly high rate.
And this time, the Communist government hasn’t ordered
any restrictive measures as they did before.
On the contrary, while “Ghost Cities” have spread over
a large number of third- or fourth-tier cities,
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) authorities show no signs
of slowing down urbanization construction plans.
Commentators say that CCP leaders are still attempting
to achieve their economic goals, but the burden for its local
governments to pay off debts is becoming heavier.
As a downturn in macro economy cannot be avoided even
by strategic adjustment of industrial structure, the CCP has
returned to the dead-end road of producing economic growth
from the real estate industry.
Recently, a Beijing plot near the National Agriculture
Exhibition Center was sold at a record high unit price of
73,000 yuan ($11,900) per square meter.
In Shanghai, Hong Kong-based Sun Hung Kai Properties also
won an auction for a commercial land plot in Xujiahui District
at a record total price of 21.7 billion yuan ($3.54 billion).
The same story is also taking place in Guangzhou, Hangzhou,
Wuhan and many other Chinese cities.
Xie Tian, professor at University of South Carolina Aiken
School of Business: “Let’s have a look at the buyers of those
most expensive lands in Beijing or Shanghai.
Who’s buying them? Indeed we find that it’s mostly
state-owned real estate enterprises.
In other words, it is the CCP government itself
that is buying the lands.
The goal is to raise house and land prices before
selling them to the ordinary Chinese people.
Xie Tian says that if real estate prices drop, there will
inevitably be a slowdown in China’s economic growth,
followed by an increased unemployment rate
and increased social unrest.
Therefore, there is no way that the CCP
really wants the house price to drop.
For local governmental officials, they have had chances of
promotion and making profits through land sales and
infrastructure projects in the past years,
so even less did they want to see a drop in house prices.
On September 17th, an article published in the Chinese
website of UK-based Financial Times says that the new CCP
leadership has deliberately ignored any adjustment
in the real estate market.
In the meantime, it is still promoting its urbanization plan,
preparing for a possible bailout with a promise to “double
per-capita income by 2020”.
In addition, the Chinese people are in great anticipation
of the coming inflation.
They worry that if they don’t buy 20,000-30,000 yuan ($4,900)
per square meter houses now, they won’t be able to later.
Due to all these factors, a panic buying boom was seen
right after a real estate on the outskirts of Beijing was
opened for quotation.
The panic buying waves in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou
has offered chances for local governments to sell more
lands at high prices.
In the first half of 2013, the total income from land sales
in many first-tier cities had hit historical highs.
In September, the lands that were sold at record high prices
are mostly located in the best area of the cities.
As the local governments chose to sell those lands at
such a point in time, there is no doubt that they will make
more panic among people in buying houses.
Zhang Liwei is bureau chief at the Institute of Journalism and
Communication, Sichuan Academy of Social Sciences.
In his Financial Times article titled “Real estate bubble will
destroy the myth of China’s growth”, Zhang wrote that
the CCP government is giving too much freedom to
the real estate industry.
One reason for that is its goal to “maintain economic growth”.
As in the first half of 2013 China has seen a drop in
economic growth, the new leadership has the pressure
on their shoulder to maintain strong growth.
However, Zhang says that this is a devastating strategy.
Although rigid market demands still exist in first-tier cities,
surging land prices will eventually leave people with less
purchasing power and unable to afford the high cost of homes.
The demand and supply chain will finally be disrupted,
and the “game of hot potato” will finally be over.
Xie Tian: “The CCP group is still able to support its regime
because it has money.
Where does it get that money?
From the real estate industry.
Especially when the economic growth is slowed down,
if the party let the real estate bubble burst,
it will lose all the warranted lands in the bank, and indeed
it will not be able to pay off any debt in such a situation.
If this happens, all of China’s state-owned banks
will go bankrupt, not to mention all local governments.”
According to an analysis by China Economic Weekly in 2011,
if all the lands in Beijing were sold, it could produce
an economic product equivalent to
the annual GDP of the United States.
Currently in Beijing, a nail-sized piece of land
can be sold for over 4 yuan ($0.65).
Feng Xingyuan, deputy director of Beijing Institute of
economics: “A problem is that we have very limited sources
to get a house for residence.
You are not allowed to buy land, construct a house
individually or cooperatively, or establish credit unions.
There is nothing like that. People simply buy houses
from developers.
The market has been monopolized by the government
at the land level.
They buy lands at very low prices from peasants,
then sell them on the market at high prices.”
As many local governments are in huge debts,
Xinhua News Agency reported in late August that many
are planning to increase the standard land price.
Such a move may raise the basic price of land transfer,
and further motivate the land price to increase.
Feng Xingyuan, Beijing Institute of economics deputy director,
also says that although there are many idle houses in China,
it is still very difficult to impose property tax immediately.
The reason is that, many of those houses are owned by
privileged classes of the party.
