【新唐人2013年02月14日讯】按中国旧历，龙年过后是蛇年，不过，有分析指出，中共在告别了“多灾多难”的2012年同时，又迎来了“危机四伏”的蛇年。中共当前面临着方方面面的危机，而且，更糟糕的是，它们被同时激发集中到了2013年。
人们近来在热烈议论中共2013年将会爆发的多个危机，而这些危机都直接威胁到中共政权的存亡。那么，到底中共面临着哪些危机呢？
美国“哥伦比亚大学”政治学博士、时政评论家李天笑表示，首先，中共将面临“亡党的危机”。
时政评论家李天笑：“亡党危机是一个渐进的过程，比方说，从2004年开始中共的党内退党，包括退出党内的一些附属组织，‘三退’的运动，就像一个洪水一样，现在已经超过一亿人了，这个比例实际上已经高于苏联在崩溃、苏共解体的时候。”
李天笑还表示，中共历史上的政治运动中，到底迫害了哪些人﹖未来，包括“文革”、“六四”等凶手，都会被进一步追查到底。此外，中共将面临“清算体制的危机”。
李天笑：“比方说从习近平提出来的停止劳教。接下来的问题，劳教所关的又是谁，很大一部分就是法轮功学员，那么，为什么这些清白的、无辜的这些人，为什么就这么抓进去了呢﹖谁指使抓他们的，这个背后的因素是什么，很快就会指向江泽民，那江泽民是利用共产党的权力，来进行迫害和镇压的，最后就查到中共制度性的问题。”
时事评论员林子旭认为，中共面临的最大危机是“人心的危机”。
时事评论员林子旭：“从中共党内来讲，大家看到了中共的这些官员，正在疯狂的向国外转移资产，中共党内的大多数人已经对中共彻底失去信心了 ，从党外来看，中国的民众现在是越来越清醒了，老百姓内心对自由的渴望，被前所未有的激发出来了，在这种民众唾弃中共的大环境下，民众正在快速的从对中共的恐惧中摆脱出来。”
此外，北韩无视国际社会的多次警告，于2月12号进行了第三次核子试爆，与此同时，北韩的传统盟友——中共，同时被国际社会聚焦。
林子旭：“放眼全球，面对中共不断弱化的状态，很多西方政府已经开始考虑中共垮台以后的事情了，因为领土争端问题，中共也把周边国家基本都得罪光 了，中共的那些小兄弟们，一个接一个的开始向民主制度过渡，就连小小的北韩，都开始敢于和中共叫板私自搞核试验了。”
中国大陆同样遭遇北韩核爆的安全威胁。中共外交部发表了谴责声明。分析指出，北韩问题考验着中共新任领导人习近平的政治智商。
不过，大陆经济学家芧于轼认为，目前中国大陆最严重的还不是政治问题，而是经济问题。
大陆经济学家芧于轼：“中国比较大的危机有两方面，一个是房地产泡沫，还有一个是银行的坏账，这是很直接的危机，两个问题立刻可能爆发。”
而北京在一个月内爆发四次雾霾天气。李天笑指出，中国日益尖锐的环境问题，也不容忽视。
李天笑：“再加上有沙尘暴，还有莫名其妙的地陷等等，都是中共长期追求经济造成的。而不顾人民的生存环境，破坏继续延伸的话，很可能造成民众的一些反抗，这个反抗会和其他的危机，结合起来造成一个综合性的危机。”
林子旭认为，目前中共处在一种前所未有的危机之中，尽管现在习近平采取了一些措施，但是，每一个危机都是一张多米诺骨牌，其中任何一张倒下了，都会让中共瞬间土崩瓦解。
采访编辑/常春 后制/君卓
Analysts: The CCP Faces a few Crises in 2013
According to the Chinese lunar calendar,
after the year of the dragon, 2013 is year of the snake.
Analysts said that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
had been through a year of “troubles” in 2012.
Now the CCP is facing a “perilous” year of the snake.
The CCP is currently encountering crises in all aspects.
In addition, the crises will all come together in 2013.
Recently, people talked about crises that
the CCP will encounter in 2013.
These crises directly threaten the CCP’s survival.
So, what crises are indeed the CCP facing?
Li Tianxiao, PhD in political science in Columbia University,
Current Affairs Commentator said that first of all, the CCP will face the crisis of collapse.
Li Tianxiao: “The CCP’s collapse will be a gradual process.
For example, the event of “quit the CCP” including its
affiliated organizations began in 2004.
The event of “quit the CCP” is like a flood, now more than
100 million people had denounced the CCP.
This speed and ratio is much higher than
the Soviet Unions’ collapse.”
Li said, in the CCP’s history of persecution during the
political movement, who had been persecuted?
In the future, murderers who were involved in the
cultural revolution and democracy protest in 1989,
will be investigated until being sentenced and punished.
In addition, the CCP’s system will face
the crisis of being removed.
Li Tianxiao: “For example, Xi Jinping vowed for the
removal of labor camps.
The next question is, who are being held in labor camps?
The majority are Falun Gong practitioners.
Why are these innocent people sent to labor camps?
Who had granted these orders, what purposes are behind it?
Soon, Jiang Zemin will be pushed forward. Jiang used the
CCP’s power to carry out persecution and suppression.
In the end, it will trace back to the CCP’s system that
had caused problems.”
Lin Zixu, the Current Affairs Commentator believes that the
biggest crisis for the CCP are its members “losing confidence”.
Lin Zixu: “Inside the CCP, we can see that these officials
are madly transferring assets to abroad.
Most members have completely lost confidence in the CCP.
Outside of the CCP, Chinese people are awakening.
The desires for freedom have reached unprecedented levels.
Under the circumstances of abandoning the CCP,
the public are rapidly losing fear of the CCP.”
Moreover, despite repeated warnings from international
societies, North Korea had commenced its third nuclear test on 12th Feb.
Meanwhile, the CCP, a North Korean traditional ally,
is being focused on by the international communities.
Lin Zixu: “Looking at the world,
the CCP are constantly being weakened,
many western governments have begun to consider
preparations for the CCP collapsing.
Because of the territorial disputes,
the CCP had upset all its neighboring countries.
The CCP’s brotherhood countries are transiting
to democracy one by one.
Now even the North Korea dare to challenge the CCP
carrying out its nuclear test.”
Mainland China suffered the same threat of
North Korea’s nuclear test.
The CCP’s foreign ministry issued a condemning statement.
Analysts pointed out that the North Korean nuclear issue was
a test towards Xi Jinping’s political intelligence quotient (IQ).
The economist Mao Yushi believes, the most severe problems in
China are the economic problems but not the political issues.
Mao Yushi: “There are two major crises in China.
One is the housing bubble.
The other are the banks’ bad debt.
The later is a direct crisis.
These two crises could break any minute now.”
In Beijing within one month, there were
four instances of smoggy weather.
Li Tianxiao said that the increasing environmental pollution
in China also can’t be ignored.
Li Tianxiao: “Additionally, sandstorms and ground subsidence
are being caused by the CCP’s long-term economic pursuit.
If the CCP carries on ignoring the people’s living environment
it is likely to cause the people unrest.
This unrest combined with other crises will turn into
a comprehensive crisis.”
Lin Zixu said, now the CCP is in an unprecedented crisis,
although Xi Jinping has taken some measures,
however, each crisis is like a domino, with any one falling
will cause the immediate collapse of the CCP.
