【新唐人2013年02月06日讯】对于钓鱼岛与南海主权争议，中国要不要打仗？中共官方出现两种声音。中国军方副总参谋长戚建国提出“领土一寸也不能少”。而中共军方总后勤部政治委员刘源则提倡，“确保战略机遇期，战争是最后选项”。刘源的“反战”是出于什么考量?请看以下的报导﹕
2月4号，中共解放军总参谋部与中国有关部门举行座谈，讨论加强海上斗争和海上安全合作问题。中国军方副总参谋长戚建国提出，“国家核心利益一点也不能损，主权一分也不能丢，领土一寸也不能少。”这段话被外界视为，在钓鱼岛与南海主权争议中向日本与菲律宾的喊话。
然而，同一天，中共喉舌《人民日报》旗下的《环球时报》，刊登中共军方总后勤部政治委员刘源的“学习18大精神辅导报告”整理文章，刘源在文章说，“确保战略机遇期，战争是最后选项。”换句话说，就是以国家发展为重，保证国家战略机遇期的前提是“不打仗”。
时政评论家伍凡：“我想他们在唱双簧，军委主席他不讲准备要打战的话，那你军队要干什么呢﹖现在日本人已经跟你挑战了，你能不应战吗﹖这个应战不一定是要去打仗，应战的结果就是把这些将军们的胃口吊起来了，吊起来以后，他又控制不了，他拿刘源出来当挡箭牌了。”
刘源在文章中强调，面对当前最核心的利益，军人确实面临两难，现在最大的目标是要保证“战略机遇期”，而“战略机遇期的前提是不打仗”，起码不打大仗。他还说，中国的经济建设到关键时期，别再因为偶发事件被打断。
时政评论家伍凡：“当这个利益和主权发展冲突的时候，你要顾哪一个，就是换了个假名字的战略机遇期，实际上就是要保护他的党国制度，这是他的根本利益，当你党国制度没有了，你去打仗是为了国家去争取这个小岛回来了，可是你共产党的政权没有了，所以他才不干呢，但是他又不得不说一句话，我是军人，军人的任务就是要准备打仗。”
刘源是前中共主席刘少奇之子，被外界视为“军二代”的代表人物，他主张战争对军人是唯一选项﹔对国家来说，则是最后选项。
《新唐人》特约评论专家马杰森：“我不觉得任何人想打这个仗，都是在一个边缘上，都在悬崖边上跳舞，没有人想跳下去。只是说跳的过程中，希望能达到自己想要达到的目地，我不觉得这个事情（打仗）是中共的核心利益所在，因为中共他自己谈到，他自己的核心利益本身就是维持这个党最终的领导。”
有报导认为，正因为刘源出身、经历与习近平相同，两人这种关系才使刘敢于公开与习“打对台”，但刘唱反调的出发点与动机并非要使习难堪，两人目标一致，都是为保住中共这个江山在自己手里，“千秋万代不变”。
时政评论家伍凡：“在我看来他是刘源，他是上将，也是太子党，应该是习近平的同路人，那么现在军队里边可能有一批人，一直在喊打，所以他出来写这篇文章，是不是要压这些将军们，因为这里边有一个最关键的问题，就是核心利益和国家主权有矛盾的时候，这个核心利益不是他所讲的发展经济的核心利益，而是党国制度的利益。”
北京独立学者章立凡对媒体表示，习进平打战争旗号令军队，是为抓牢军权，并转移国内矛盾视线；刘源反战是因他非常明白，中共军队腐败不堪，若真与美日开战，必败无疑，故惟有以“保发展”为由反战，“否则甲午之战历史重演，如何交代？”
采访/陈汉 编辑/黄亿美 后制/郭敬
Whose Interests Is Liu Yun’s Anti-war Banner Protecting?
There are two official voices coming from China regarding
the sovereignty of the Diaoyu Islands in the South China Sea.
Should China go to war over this dispute?
Qi jianguo, Deputy Chief of the Chinese military suggested
that China should not give up one inch of its territory.
Liu Yuan, political commissar of the Chinese military
General Logistics Department said, “To ensure strategic opportunities, war is the last option."
Whose interests is Liu Yuan’s anti-war strategy guarding?
Let’s look at the report.
On February 4th, the Military General Staff held a discussion
with the Chinese authorities over strengthening maritime fighting and maritime security cooperation.
Qi Jianguo, deputy chief of the general staff of the Chinese
Military, proposed, “We cannot damage our national core
interests, lose one iota of our sovereignty,
and give up one inch of our territory.”
His words have been widely regarded as the message
to the Japanese and the Philippines over the Diaoyu Islands dispute in the South China Sea.
However, on the same day, the Chinese Communist Party
(CCP) mouthpiece, the People’s Daily’s Global Times
published Liu Yuan’s article, “learning the 18 major
psychiatric counseling report."
In his article, Liu Yun said, “To ensure strategic
opportunities, war is the last option."
In other words, the CCP should develop China first,
and will not start a war.
Political critic Wu Fan: “I think they collaborate
with each other.
The chairman of the Military Commission said
he was ready to fight.
What would our army do?
Now Japan is challenging us, but could we not confront it?
This response does not necessarily mean going into a war.
Its purpose is to pique generals’ appetite.
In case their appetite is out of control,
it can use Liu Yuan as a shield."
Liu Yuan stressed in the article that facing the current core
interests, the military is indeed facing a dilemma.
Its main goal is to ensure strategic opportunities,
which is not fighting a war.
He also said that China’s economic development is at a critical
period and cannot afford to be interrupted by unexpected incidents.
Current affairs commentator Wu Fan: “When a nation’s
interests and sovereignty run into each other, what should one do?
Thus, he uses a phony name, such as strategic opportunities.
In fact, it actually means protecting this party-state system.
That is his fundamental interest. If the party-state system
no longer exists, would he go to war to fight for an island?
He would not be so stupid to win back an island
and lose the regime.
However, as a soldier, he has to say that his mission
is to be ready for a war.
Liu Yuan, the son of former Chinese Communist Party
Chairman Liu Shaoqi, is widely regarded as the military
representative of the second generation.
He argued that war is the last option for a country.
Jason Ma, political critic, NTD Television: “I do not think
anyone really wants to fight this battle.
They are all dancing at the edge of a cliff,
but no one wants to jump.
They just want to achieve their goal through dancing.
I do not think a war is the CCP’s core interests,
because the CCP has mentioned its core interests –
maintaining ultimate leadership of the party."
It has been reported that, precisely because Liu Yuan shares
the same family background and experience with Xi Jinping, he dares to openly Challenge Xi Jinping.
However, Liu’s starting point and motive is not to embarrass
Xi Jinping, they share a same goal.
They both want to keep the CCP in their own hands,
unchanged and for generations to come."
Current affairs commentator Wu Fan: “In my opinion,
Liu Yuan is also a princeling and he should travel the same path as Xi Jinping.
However, some people in the army favor fighting a war.
When Liu Yun wrote his article, did he want to suppress
those generals?
The key issue is when the core interests run into national
sovereignty, the core interests are not economic development but the interests of the party-state system."
Zhang Lifan, Beijing independent scholar,
believes that
Xi Jinping holds a war banner to gain military control
and to shift people’s focus away from domestic conflicts.
Liu Yun’s anti-war is because he knows too well
of Chinese military corruption.
China will lose for sure, fighting a war against
the US or Japan.
Therefore, he advocates, “maintaining security
and development, but fighting a war kept as the last option.”
Otherwise, a repeat of the Sino-Japanese war history
will be hard for the CCP to bear.
