【新唐人2013年01月28日讯】中共新任总书记习近平在去年12月南下广东视察，曾被各界解读为推进政改的信号。日前，习近平的视察讲话被海外媒体曝光，要点却是坚持马、列、毛思想，吸取苏联解体教训，决不放松党指挥枪。外界对此作何评价呢？一起来看看。
据《德国之声》报导，习近平“新南巡”讲话，最醒目的部分是重提“苏联解体”的历史。
习近平的讲话指称，苏联和苏共一夜垮台的原因是“理想信念动摇”，“思想搞乱了，各级党组织失去作用。”否定苏共历史、否定列宁和斯大林，而且苏联的军队非政治化、非党化，专政工具不在党的手中。所以最后戈尔巴乔夫轻轻一句话，宣布苏联共产党解散，偌大一个党就解体了。
习近平在讲话中表示，要从苏联解体中吸取教训，必须毫不动摇的坚持党对军队的领导。他还感叹，苏共倒台时，虽然党员比中共多，“但竟无一人是男儿，没人出来抗争。”似乎表示他给新政的定位是，做捍卫中共统治的所谓“男儿”。
美国“纽约城市大学”政治学教授夏明：“习近平现在可能还抱有幻想，觉得党他还可以救下来，但是恐怕社会压力必须得让他思考一个问题，是不是党里边有许多有毒的负资产他必须要剥离开来，或者是不是党和国必须剥离开来。其实这都是最后戈尔巴乔夫他必须走的路。”
北京学者陈子明接受香港《苹果日报》采访时表示，如果习近平的讲话内容属实，将表明他所说的“中国梦”实质是“共产主义梦”，是靠暴力达到专政目地的梦，和中国民众的梦相差甚远。
习近平的讲话内容没有回应各界翘首以待的“政改”，反而表态，并非采取西方普世价值和西方政治制度才算改革。他说：“不能改的，再过多长时间也是不改，这不能说不改革。”
习近平“新南巡讲话”在中共内部传达后，中共喉舌《新华社》在1月26号发文呼应，声称要全面深入“反腐败”以巩固执政合法性，并“深刻吸取”苏共解体的教训，避免重蹈覆辙。
“哈佛大学费正清中国研究中心”教授马若德（Roderick MacFarquhar）认为，既得利益集团在中共的腐败体制内已经根深蒂固，习近平不希望因冒险改革而触发巨变，导致政权颠覆，让自己成为中国历史上的戈尔巴乔夫。因此，中共内部改革的可能性很小，恐怕要靠大规模突发事件“从外部触发改革”。
夏明：“习近平现在在两大力量的夹攻之下，所以他表现出了非常多的摇摆和犹豫。他现在作为党的首领，首先是救党。但是另一方面现在中共显然成为中国国家发展很大的障碍和问题。所以他如何面对救党和救国，这两个之间是有矛盾和压力的。”
原“石家庄大学”教师王莉丽则认为，习近平高调开展的反腐工作，如果是以恢复中共的执政权威和树立合法性为目标，将和做秀无异。
原石家庄大学教师王莉丽：“所有的这些根源在一个问题上，他是否有胆量进行彻彻底底的政治体制改革，真正的实现民主。如果这一点他做不到，所有的不管他是真心也好，还是假意也好，真心如果他做不到这一点恐怕他也是有心无力，假意就更不用说了。”
习近平能否在压力和矛盾中彻底抛弃“逆潮流、反人类”的中共体制，为中国民众的福祉和国家的发展作出正确选择，让我们拭目以待。
采访/常春 编辑/李明飞 后制/王明宇
Xi Jinping’s Southern Tour Speech Exposed
Political Reform Not Raised
Xi Jinping, the new General Sectary of the Chinese
Communist Party, made a tour in Guangdong in Dec. 2012.
This tour in southern China has been interpreted as
a signal of promoting political reform.
However, recently Xi’s speech made in his
southern tour was exposed by the overseas media.
In his speech, Xi stated that Thoughts of Marx, Lenin
and Mao Zedong should be firmly followed,
and lessons should be learned from
the disintegration of the Soviet Union.
Xi also claimed that China’s army has to be
unswervingly loyal to the Party.
As reported by"The Voice of Germany", Xi Jinping
talked about “the disintegration of the Soviet Union"
once again during his tour to southern China,
this was the most noticeable part in his speech.
Xi claimed that the Soviet Union had disintegrated
over night because"their belief was shaken"and
“their ideologies were in chaos and all levels of
party organizations lost power."
The history of the Soviet Union and the Communist Party
of the Soviet Union were denied.
Lenin and Stalin were denied. In addition, the
Soviet army was not politicized or owned by the Party.
Therefore, the ruling tool was not held
in the hands of the Party.
In the end, only upon Gorbachev’s announcement of
disintegrating the Soviet Communist Party, did it all collapse.
In Xi Jinping’s speech, he stated that lessons have to
be learned from the disintegration of the Soviet Union.
The army must be firmly led by the Party.
He also lamented that ““there was even not a single man
who could stand up for the Party” when the Soviet Union was collapsing.
Even if the Union had had a lot more party members
than the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
From his speech, it seems that Xi presented himself as
“the man"who is going to defend the CCP.
Professor Xi Ming from New York City University:
“Xi Jinping might be still holding the fantasy that he is able to save the Party.
However, the current social pressure should push him to
think about whether he should get rid of so much ‘negative capital’from the Party.
Furthermore, should the Party and country be
treated separately? This is the path that
Gorbachev took to disintegrate the Soviet Union."
As interviewed by Hong Kong’s “Apple Daily",
Chen Ziming, a scholar in Beijing, stated that
Xi’s so-called “China’s Dream"is actually
“Communism Dream"if Xi did make a speech like that.
“The Communism Dream" is a dream
to realize dictatorship through violence,
which is running in the opposite direction
from the dream of Chinese people.
In Xi Jinping’s speech, he didn’t respond to the
“political reform” that all walks of life were waiting to hear.
Nevertheless, he claimed that reform doesn’t mean that
we have to adopt the universal values
or political system of the western countries.
After Xi Jinping’s “New Southern Tour Speech"was
transmitted among the Party organizations internally,
the state official news agency “Xinhua " published
an article on January 26 to respond to Xi’s speech.
The article says that thorough and deep
anti-corruption activities will be performed to consolidate the Party’s ruling legitimacy.
The article also says that lessons from the disintegration
of the Soviet Union should be seriously learned so that the same errors wouldn’t be recommitted.
Professor Roderick MacFarquhar from Harvard University
thinks that the vested interest group has been ingrained in the CCP’s corrupt system.
Xi Jinping doesn’t want to reform at the risk of
triggering huge change in the CCP’s regime.
Xi doesn’t want to be China’s Gorbachev.
There is very little chance that the CCP will reform internally.
Only unexpected external force can trigger the reform.
Xia Ming: “Xi Jinping stays in the middle of
two forces pushing him in two directions.
Therefore he’s been showing a lot of swing and hesitation.
Now as the Party head, he is facing how to
save the Party.
However, there are a lot of conflicts and pressure
about saving the Party or saving the country."
Wang Li, a former teacher from Shijiazhuang University,
thinks that it’s nothing but a political show if Xi
promotes anti-corruption in a high profile only to recover the CCP’s authority and ruling legitimacy.
Wang Li:"The source problem is whether or not
Xi has the courage for complete political reform and to realize democracy in China.
If he is not able to do it, all he does is useless
no matter if his intention is real or not."
Can Xi make a right choice and get rid of the CCP system,
known as being"against historical trend and
against humanity", under all kinds of pressure and conflicts?
Let’s wait and see what happens.
