【新唐人2013年01月05日讯】新年前夕，中共新领导人习近平主持政治局集体学习，研究部署2013年党风廉政建设和反腐工作。然而政治分析家裴敏欣3号在《中国密报》发表评论，他认为，中共就像《泰坦尼克号》一样无法逃过沉没的命运。他的论点是，从历史来看，没有一个独裁政权不会倒台，中共也不例外。
现在画面看到的是大家熟悉的电影《泰坦尼克号》，当船沈下去的时候，乘客惊慌与绝望的表情，令人印象深刻。
最近《明镜网》编译《中国密报》一篇文章，标题是“中共这条大船无法逃过沉没命运”，文章内容提到，中共十八大是一场精心策划的盛会，领导人试图在一连串政治风暴下进行权力转移。政治分析家裴敏欣将十八大比喻成《泰坦尼克号》上的最后宴会，尽管光彩夺目，却无法逃过沉没命运，共产党统治的尽头已接近了。
文章作者比喻，2012年的中共政局如果是一场球赛，那么最有价值的球员就是薄熙来，如果少了这位最佳男主角，外界将不会看到中共如此风起云涌又惊滔骇浪的一年。
时政评论员汪北稷：“现在是2013年，它的灭亡什么时候开始的，其实是从2012年2月6日王立军和薄熙来闹翻，去美国领事馆开始的。中国民众的觉醒已经上升到了一个很高的程度，利用手机短信、利用微信、微博以及一些网路平台，人民已经不能像30年前、40年前被封闭起来，完全简单的洗脑。”
这篇文章还指出，中国是个很特别的国家，像是挂羊头卖狗肉，打着社会主义的名号却做资本主义的事。
美国中国社会民主党中央委员会主持人刘因全：“他这些观点都是有道理的，因为独裁的政治体制，他的领导人的产生是存在很大的问题，不是经过民选的，他是一个在暗箱操作的情况下产生的，他就没有民意基础，他就很难得到人民的拥护，在这种情况下他们很难长久，也就是说中共如果不进行体制改革的话，不进行大刀阔斧的改革的话，只是做一些修修补补，是很难持久的。”
文章还强调自我毁灭的动力，让独裁政权垮台的理论。但也有些专家质疑，中共真的有可能一夕崩溃吗？崩溃后的中国人民何去何从？
原大陆历史学教授现任美国的中国社会民主党中央委员会主持人刘因全表示，翻开历史来看，每一次的改朝换代，民生社会照常运作，人民照常生活，不会洪水滔天的。
刘因全：“中共倒台以后，中国不会社会失控，不会混乱的，因为无论哪一股政治势力掌握了政权以后，他们都会很有自己的方法来维持社会的稳定，不会造成混乱，如果中国实行了两党制以后，两个党互相监督，中国只会更好。”
中国问题研究专家赵远明：“一个民族、一个国家，不是非要靠某一个人的统治才能够强大的，你看中国五千年文化，多少历朝历代，换来换去，历朝历代，皇帝都是换了多少次，朝代换了多少次，这个中华民族依然存在，而且历史依然发展。”
曾经担任公安大学法律系讲师的赵远明还表示，中国腐败的制度，产生了一群腐败的官员，加上独裁统治，没有监督机制，因此，在中国形成了一个庞大的利益集团。
文章也指出，中共领导人的能力越来越弱，加上执政时间一长，政府变得越来越官僚，都催化了自我毁灭的进程。
采访/李韵 编辑/黄亿美 后制/郭敬
Secret Chinese Report: CCP Cannot Escape it’s Fate
Anchor:
Just before the New Year, Xi Jinping, the Chinese Communist
Party’s new leader organized a collective learning in the Politburo.
At this meeting he arranged the tasks of building a clean
government and anti-corruption measures in 2013.
However Pei Minxin, a political analyst published
a commentary on Jan. 3 in his “Chinese Secret Report.”
In this report he said the CCP is like the Titanic
which can’t escape it’s fate, which is to sink.
His opinion is there’s no dictatorship in history that
didn’t fall down . The CCP can’t be an exception.
Reporter:
Many of you should be very familiar with this film “Titanic”.
When the passenger liner was sinking, all the passengers
were scared and desperate. It’s very impressive.
Recently the Mirror Network translated and edited
an article of the “ Chinese Secret Report titled “The Big Ship CCP Can’t Escape it’s Fate of Sinking”.
In the artcle, it said that CCP’s 18th Congress is
a well-planned event.
CCP leaders had tried to transfer power
during serious political turmoil.
Political Analyst Pei Minxin described the 18th Congress as
the last banquet on the Titanic.
It even it looks brilliant, but it can’t escape it’s
fated sinking .
The CCP’s control is close to the end.
The article said, if the CCP’s political situation in 2012 was a
football game, then Bo Xilai was “the most valuable player”.
With this best actor absent, the outside world isn’t able to
see clearly the turbulence suffered this last year by the CCP.
Wang Beiji, a political commentator, “Now is 2013.
But actually, the CCP’s ending started from February 6, 2012.
Which was when Wang Lijun separated from Bo Xilai and
went to the U.S. consulate.
The awakening of the Chinese people
has been increased.
They can now use SMS, Micro-message, Micro-blog and
other internet platforms to share information.
They are different from the people of thirty or forty years ago,
when they were isolated and were completely brainwashed.
The article also pointed out that China is a very special country,
such as “hanging trickery", which means CCP calls itself “socialist”, but behaves as “capitalist”.
Liu Yinquan, chairman of the Central Committee of China’s
Social Democratic Party: “His views are reasonable.
because in a dictatorship, a leader’s changing
is a big issue.
It’s not voted by the people, it is generated by
a black-box operation.
The leader doesn’t have people’s support.
It’s hard for him to have it.
Under this kind of situation, the dictatorship can’t
last for a long time, which means that
if the CCP doesn’t change doesn’t completely
reform it can’t last much longer.”
The article also emphasized the theory of the power of
“self-destruction” destroying the dictatorship.
But some experts have doubted
That the CCP will collapse in one night?
How can the Chinese people handle it if
the CCP collapses?
Liu Yinquan said that looking at history’s examples,
civil society can maintain it’s normal operation during each dynasty’s changing, and will not have a mass of problems.
Liu Yinquan: “After the CCP falls down, China ‘s society
can’t lose control, can’t be in a chaos.
Because no matter who takes power, they will have
their solution for maintaining the society’s stability.
It will not be in a mess. If China has a two party system,
the two parties will mutually supervise.
China will get better and better.”
Zhao Yuanming, a China issue expert: “A nation or
a country’s strength doesn’t only depend upon an individual’s ruling.
You can see in the 5,000 years of Chinese culture,
there were so many dynasties that changed one by one.
So many emperors changed one by one.
The Chinese nation is still exists and history is still developing
no matter how many emperors or dynasties have changed.
Zhao Yuanming was a teacher of the Faculty of Law
at the Public Security University.
He said that China’s corrupt system had
created a group of corrupt officials.
A dictatorship without any form of supervision of it’s
own mechanism, China has a huge interest group.
The article also said that the capability of the CCP ‘s
leaders has become weaker and weaker.
When the time of rule is longer and longer , the regime
becomes more and more bureaucratic.
All of this helps to speed up
the process of self-destruction.
