【新唐人2013年01月03日讯】中共十八届中央政治局第二次集体学习时，新任中共总书记习近平强调要采用“摸着石头过河”的改革方法，朝着中共十八大指引的改革方向走。海外媒体评论说，新的一年，中共会启动所谓的第三波改革，但民众期望的“政改”难以实现，中国依然延续的是“鸟笼政治”。
2012年的最后一天，中共中央政治局就所谓的“改革开放”进行了第二次集体学习。中共中央总书记习近平在主持学习时提出了5点意见。
其中，习近平强调的一点是，“摸着石头过河”是符合中国国情的改革方法。他说，改革开放是一项长期的、艰钜的、繁重的事业，必须一代又一代人接力干下去。
美国中文杂志《中国事务》总编辑伍凡表示，共产党改革开放30多年了，到现在还在摸着石头过河。中共当局根本没有一个计划目标，一个远大的目标和路线图。
《中国事务》总编辑伍凡：“路线图非常重要，你一步一步怎么走，你应该有一个设计，一个规划出来，到现在还在摸着石头。那个石头现在是摸不到了，有的是越来越深了，摸不到石头要不要过河？有的河浅，有的河深，你到长江、黄河里面还去摸什么石头呢？”
伍凡指出，全世界那么多国家可以学，中共不愿意学，还是要自己闭门造车，摸石头。摸着石头过河，其实就是想继续的欺骗大家。
大陆民主人士恩广表示，从习近平的讲话当中可以看出，习近平也看透了中国现在的形势，再不改革，社会矛盾激化越来越厉害。但是，他又不能从权力中心去改变，只能从中下层做局部改变，缓解一下社会矛盾。
大陆民主人士恩广：“局部的改革，但是这个改革的范围肯定基于中下层，或者社会包括一些保障，和其他的这种民怨四起的这种方向，可能他会做一点动作，汇一点民心，这有可能。但是从它的本质问题上，国情和特色还是丢弃不了。”
新加坡《联合早报》在岁末刊载文章说：中共新领导层在新的一年，将在民生、税制及户籍制度等方面有所动作，但对改革的‘深水区’——司法独立、民主选举、言论自由等依然不会触及。
曾任国务院“农村发展中心”研究员的中国学者姚监复，对《德国之声》表示，政治上，中共还是“鸟笼政治”，绝对跳不出一党专制的大笼子。
大陆民主人士恩广：“小的改革是不存在的。但是，大的改革又牵扯到它们的至关利益，又牵扯到它们最核心的利益，这两点本身就是矛盾的。其实民主和专制本来就是矛盾的，本来就是水火不容的。”
上周，武汉市“两会”新闻通气会透露，一月初将召开“两会”。然而，武汉市“两会宣传报导组”下发通知宣布，全国记者需要经过政审才可以获得采访权。大陆民众认为，这是官方释放紧缩言论自由和新闻自由的信号弹。
恩广说，今年3月中共也要开“两会”，到时候，民众会看习近平下一些什么主席令，制定一些什么规则。
大陆民主人士恩广：“他是不是有那种善心善举，能够在历史上做出一些功勋，能够让自己成为一个真正的受人尊崇的，能流芳后世的人，那就取决于他的人品和个性。”
伍凡表示，如果习近平在3月“两会”之后，还用“维稳”的方式来维持中国共产党，共产党会死的更快 。
采访编辑/唐睿 后制/陈建铭
Communist Third Reform Continues Birdcage Politics
In the second meeting of the 18th Politburo,
the new General Secretary, Xi Jinping,
instructed to reform with the “trial and error" approach.
Some overseas media have called it the third wave of reform,
while others believe it simply to be politics in a birdcage, and that true reform is impossible.
Dec 31, 2012, the Communist Politburo conducted
the second meeting on “reform and opening."
General Secretary Xi Jinping presided over the meeting
and indicated five principles.
Xi Jinping stressed reform through “trial and error"
is applicable to China.
He indicated that reform and opening up is time consuming,
arduous and onerous.
It requires effort from generations and generations.
Chris Wu, editor-in-chief of China Affairs magazine,
indicates that for over 30 years, the Communist Party’s
reform and opening is still based on trial and error.
It shows that the Communist regime has not had a goal,
plan or roadmap.
Chris Wu, editor-in-chief of the China Affairs: “A road map
is a very important design with step by step plans.
Without it, how can you cross a major river such
as the Yangtze River or Yellow River?
The water is too deep.
Are you going to cross it or not?"
Chris Wu points out that there are so many countries
around the world the Communist regime can learn from.
But it refused to. The trial and error approach is simply
an old tactic to deceive everyone.
Activist En Guang indicates Xi Jinping’s speech shows that
Xi Jinping is aware of the increasingly severe social conflict in China.
However, he can only alleviate the problem partially from
around the society, but not directly at the center of regime.
Activist En Guang: “Partial reform might be conducted
around the middle and lower class to relieve some discontent and comfort people a little.
But it won’t touch the core of the problem.
The nature of communism won’t get touched at all."
Singapore’s zaobao.com.sg published
an article which said,
“In the new year, the new Chinese Communist Party
leadership will act upon the people’s livelihood,
the tax system and the household registration system,
but reform will not touch deep water,
such as the independence of the judiciary,
democratic elections, and freedom of expression."
Former researcher at the Rural Development Center of the
State Council, Yao Jianfu, told Deutsche Welle that politically,
the Communist regime still conducts everything
in the birdcage, i.e., the one-party ruling system.
En Guang: “Some minor reforms will exist.
But the major ones will touch their most intuitive and
core interests. Therefore, it is itself contradictory.
In fact, democracy and authoritarianism are contradictory,
and inherently incompatible."
Last week, Wuhan City revealed that two meetings (annual meetings
of the National People’s Congress and Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference) will convene in early January.
However, the Two meetings Propaganda Group in Wuhan also
announced that reporters need to pass an investigation to get the interview right.
It is believed this signals tightened speech and press.
En Guang says that the Communist regime
will also conduct Two meetings this March.
People will see the true Xi Jinping through his next set
of new rules.
En Guang: “His quality and personality will decide
his historical position."
Chris Wu indicates that if Xi Jinping continues stability
maintenance, the Communist regime will end faster.
