【新唐人2012年11月17日讯】随着前中共总书记胡锦涛宣布中共十八大闭幕，他的政治生涯也到了尽头，习近平、李克强正式登场。不过令人大跌眼镜的是，胡“裸退”的同时，在新常委中只有一名是他的人马。但有德国媒体报导说，胡锦涛输了人事，却赢了“立储权”。不过，很多学者并不认同，请看以下报导。
从中共11月15号官方公布的“十八大”7名政治局常委名单显示，常委中只有李克强属于胡锦涛的团派，而江派的张德江、张高丽、俞正声、刘云山都入常，人们传说的“江胡斗”并没有出现。甚至“英国广播公司（BBC）”引述美国“布鲁金斯协会”高级研究员李成的话说，7个人里6个或者5个半都是江泽民的人，这是一个缺乏平衡的政治局常委。
旅美中国民运人士蔡桂华：“十八大召开以后，江泽民根本不把胡锦涛放在眼里，你做你的报告，他就撤退，也不大尊重他。这说明什么，胡锦涛做了军委主席、党的中央总书记，其实做的很窝囊的，他整个一个执政过程，就是个很窝囊的过程。”
79年创办大陆“民主墙”的蔡桂华还指出，江的军委办公室在十八大前刚刚被封掉，他的权力一直延续到现在，胡对江一直是小媳妇的角色，对江派人物也是唯唯诺诺，十八大的这种人事安排也就不奇怪了。
而资深媒体人笑蜀认为，胡最大的毛病，是没有承担作为最高统治者必须承担的政治责任，对问题和危机完全不敢面对，也没有解决的诚意及能力，尤其对特殊利益集团过于放纵。
实际上，胡锦涛从1982年的12大就进入了中共中央委员会，从14大就是政治局常委，自16大开始担任总书记，在中共权利中心呆了30年。
《自由亚洲电台》指出，思想比较开明的胡派大将汪洋、李源潮这些人出局后，人们对保守色彩浓重的新常委班子，在解决历史问题和政治开明方面，已经不抱太多期望了。而十八大前是很乐观的。
独立评论员邢天行：“从民间的呼声对这次十八大常委的人选，普遍是非常的不满：认为中共连内部的改革，现在连一个姿态都不敢做了，所以对中共是彻底的失望。原来民间还有一部分人对它有指望的，也已经站在彻底的要对中共对着干一个角度上了。”
笑蜀指出，中共体制内的顽固势力都是不懂现代文明，尤其不懂宪政民主的文盲。如果他们主动改革是对他们自己好，中国的转型成本就低，他们就越容易救赎自己。如果他们不主动改，中国还是要转型，他们就完全没法向自己的人民、向历史交代。
但中国政治学者陈子明在《德国之声》撰文说，虽然胡锦涛输了十八大的人事，但胡锦涛赢得了“隔代立储”权。他说，“这一次胡锦涛得以隔过习近平，立胡春华为‘王储’，而根据既定的安排，六〇后的胡春华和孙政才这一次‘进局’，下一次‘入常’，中共二十大则成为总书记和总理的接班人。”
不过，旅美中国民运人士沈源表示，现在就预测5年后的事情太早，中共有没有那么长的寿命也很难说。沈源认为，中国已经到了必须变革的前夜。
旅美中国民运人士沈源：“要依靠他们中共这些所谓的当政者良心发现，来提出政改，考虑到还政于民，我觉得还是可能性是不大的，这种估计还太早了一点。”
独立评论员邢天行也指出，目前中国贫富差距巨大、贪污腐败横行、社会极度不公，经济面临崩溃、失业率高升等，老百姓被逼得多次起来反抗。一切都表明，中共到了崩溃的边沿了，这与历代王朝灭亡时的境况极其相似。
采访/易如 编辑/宋风 后制/周天
Hu Jintao Lost Or Won?
Hu Jintao, former Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General
Secretary announced the close of the 18th Congress.
This indicated his political era is ended.
Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang had officially taken the role.
Strangely, only one seat in the new Standing Committee
belongs to Hu’s ally.
German media reported that Hu lost the battle in Standing
Committee but had a victory to arrange new leaders.
However, many scholars disagree.
Let’s take a look.
Amidst the seven members of the Standing Committee,
only Li Keqiang belongs to Hu Jintao’s faction.
However Jiang Zemin’s faction: Zhang Dejiang, Zhang Gaoli,
Yu Zhengsheng and Liu Yunshan took the seats.
Jiang and Hu’s power struggle didn’t happen as expected.
The BBC cited Li Cheng, a senior researcher
at Brookings Institute.
Li said six of seven seats belong to Jiang Zemin’s faction,
it shows the imbalance of the Standing Committee.
Cai Guihua, democracy activist in the US: “Jiang Zemin has
looked down on Hu Jintao since the 18th Congress.
When Hu did his remarks, Jiang left with no respect.
What’s the reason?
Hu took the role as Party General Secretary
and Chairman of the Military Commission,
but he was in a awkward position as
his entire political era is a poor performance.”
Cui Guihua, founder of Democracy Wall said that Jiang
Zemin’s Central Military Commission Office was removed right before the 18th Congress.
Jiang’s influence has continued to the present day.
Hu had played a small role in front of Jiang,
including Jiang’s faction.
Thus it isn’t surprising how the personnel arrangement of
the 18th Party Congress is.
Senior media person Xiao Shu believes Hu’s biggest issue
is not fulfilling his political responsibility as top leader.
He didn’t dare to face the problems and crises.
He is incapable and lacks sincerity to resolve the problems,
especially unrestraint of his interests group.
Hu entered the Central Committee in 1982 12th Party Congress.
He then had a seat at Standing Committee in 14th Party Congress.
in the 16th Party Congress he became Party General Secretary.
Hu spent 30 years in central government.
Radio Free Asia reported that Hu’s allies Wang Yang and Li
Yuanchao were kicked out.
It was over historical problems and political reform and
people lost confidence in the new Standing Committee.
However, before the 18th Party Congress,
situation is different.
Xing Tianxing, independent commentator: “People are not
not happy about the name lists of the Standing Committee.
They believe that the CCP can’t handle its internal reform,
or dare to show a single sign of reform.
They are completely disappointed in the CCP.
Some people dreamed the CCP would change, but
now totally changed their mind to the opposite.”
Xiao Shu stated that those stubborn forces in CCP’s system
actually have no idea about modern civilization.
They are especially illiterate on constitutional democracy.
They don’t understand that political reform can only help them.
If they take action to create political reform, the cost would
be lower for China to complete the transition to democracy.
Thus, it’s easier to rescue themselves.
If they don’t take the initiative to perform political reform,
China will still experience the transition.
If so, how can they explain themselves to the
Chinese people and to the history?
Chen Zimin, Scholar in China’s affairs, published an article
in “Voice of Germany”.
He stated in his article that Hu Jintao lost in the personnel
arrangement in the 18th National Congress.
However, Hu gained the power of nominating China’s
next leadership after Xi Jinping’ term.
He said that Hu Jintao was able to nominate Hu Chunhua
as the successor of Xi Jinping.
Based on the arrangement, Hu Chunhua and Sun Zheng,
born in 1960s, have been elected into the Politburo.
They will be elected into the Standing Committee next time.
In the 20th Nation Congress, Hu Chunhua and Sun Zheng
will be CCP’s General Sectary and Premier Minister.
However, democracy advocate Shen Yuan stated that
it’s too early to predict what will happen in five years.
It’s hard to say whether or not the CCP can last that long.
Shen Yuan thinks that it’s right before revolution
comes within China.
Shen Yuan: “It’s almost impossible to rely on the conscience
of CCP’s senior authority to perform political reform.
It’s very unlikely they would return the power to people.”
Independent Commentator Xin Tianxing also pointed out
that the rich and poor are polarized, officials corrupt,
economy collapsing and unemployment increasing.
Ordinary people are forced to stand up and
protest again and again.
All of these show that the CCP is on the edge of collapsing.
It’s extremely similar to all other historical dynasties when
they were about to come to the end.
