【新唐人2012年11月14日讯】中共总书记胡锦涛“十八大”后，是否会继续保留“中央军委主席”一职，是正在举行的“十八大”一大看点。12号，香港《南华早报》引述不具名的消息来源说，胡锦涛“将不再留任中央军委主席”。分析认为，就中共目前的形势来看，胡锦涛不管是自愿还是无奈，却有两个关键原因，可能继续“留任”军委主席。
中央军委主席与总书记和国家主席三合一——由同一个人担任，是中共政坛上最有权力的职务。
据了解，“十八大”派系之间的谈判，将在14号达到高潮，届时，将选出200多名中央委员会委员。而15号举行的“18届一中全会”，则由新一届的中央委员会委员开会任命新的政治局委员和新的常委，还将选出新的中央纪律检查委员会——一个反腐败的内部机构的委员，以及中央军委。
在此关键时刻，香港《南华早报》引述不具名的消息来源报导说，中共“十八大”结束后，现任三合一职务的胡锦涛也将“卸任中央军委主席”一职，接班人——习近平在接任中共总书记的同时，将接任军委主席。
独立评论员韩武虽然认为胡锦涛不会留任，但却表示﹕这个报导是一种试探，没有实质性的意义。
独立评论员韩武：“他报的意图主要是想看，一个是国内太子党这一派的人、江派的人看有什么动向，第二想看看西方世界——海外的媒体会有什么反应，这一切都没有什么实际意义，就是说，中国的政治非常的黑暗，外界凭它的表象上想来分清楚，是不容易猜清楚的。”
美国“哥伦比亚大学”政治学博士、时政评论家李天笑认为，这可能是江派为试探各界对胡锦涛留任的态度所放的风。李天笑认为，王立军和薄熙来事件导致江派人马失势，使一度受江系人马箝制的胡锦涛，终于走出“政令不出中南海”的困局，胡锦涛历经十年的压制，才刚刚掌控军队，在这关键时刻，李天笑说，胡锦涛不会轻易放弃。
美“哥伦比亚大学”政治学博士李天笑：“为什么不能轻易放掉，最关键的原因就是清算、反清算这么一个关键问题，如果说他轻易把军权放掉的话，很可能薄熙来和江派利用他们的军队势力，反扑过来，这个对他是不利的，是个生死攸关的问题。”
同时，李天笑还分析，胡锦涛留任中央军委主席还有另一个原因。
李天笑：“可以帮习近平在军队上面能撑一把，因为习近平毕竟还比较嫩，将来习近平执政之后，如果要进一步清理江家帮的话，很可能就需要有军权，胡锦涛现在在军队的人脉呀，基本上已经很深入了，那么在这一方面，我觉得他能起很重要的作用。”
就在香港《南华早报》报导“胡锦涛将不再留任中央军委主席”的同一天，还刊登特别报导，其中提到﹕“习近平可能在接任中共总书记之后，继续等待两年，才能掌控解放军这一世界上最大的军队。”
早在“十八大”召开的几个月前，高层派系之间的博弈就已经进入白热化，而被外界猜测的热点之一，就是胡锦涛是否会继续留任中央军委主席。
军事专家、《汉和防务评论》杂志总编辑平可夫认为，胡锦涛很可能会继续留任。
今年9月，曾担任香港特首的中共全国政协副主席董建华，在接受美国有线新闻网(CNN)访问时暗示，现任中国最高领导胡锦涛不会“裸退”。
董建华相信胡锦涛可能继续担任中央军委会主席一段时间。他还强调，并没有获得任何消息，只是根据过往做法，所以，胡锦涛会保持这个职位一段时间。
采访编辑/常春 后制/薛莉
Will Hu Remain as Central Military Commission Chairman?
Whether Chinese Communist Party(CCP) general secretary,
Hu Jintao, will remain as Central Military Commission (CMC)
chairman is a hot topic alongside the 18th National People’s Congress (NPC) meeting.
On November 12, Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post
quoted unnamed sources saying that,
Hu Jintao “will not remain as the Central Military
Commission Chairman”.
Analyses on the CCP’s current situation shows that,
willingly or not, Hu Jintao has two key reasons to continue
his role as the chairman of the CMC.
In China, one person simultaneously adopts the roles of
CMC chairman, general secretary and state president—
the most powerful positions within the CCP.
It is understood that negotiations between different factions
of the 18th NPC will reach their peak on November 14;
over 200 Central Committee members will be appointed.
The first Plenary of the 18th NPC will be on November 15,
held by the new session of the Central Committee.
They will appoint new members of the Political Bureau,
the Standing Committee, the Central Commission for
Discipline Inspection—internal anti-corruption institution—
and the Central Military Commission.
At this critical moment, South China Morning Post quoted
unnamed sources, reporting that after the 18th NPC,
the current 3-in-1 officer, Hu Jintao,
will also resign from his post as CMC chairman.
Successor Xi Jinping is said to take the positions of
CCP General Secretary and the CMC chairman.
Although independent commentator Han Wu believes
Hu Jintao will not remain in office,
he says the news report is just a kind of ‘probing’
without any substantive significance.
[Han Wu]: “The report is trying to probe a response from
the faction of domestic princelings and the Jiang Zemin faction,
as well as from the western world and overseas media.
It has little practical significance—that is to say,
China’s politics is very dark;
the outside world cannot distinguish it
very clearly from its appearance."
Columbia University’s Ph.D. graduate in Political science,
Li Tianxiao, believes that it could be a tentative message released by Jiang’s faction,
to probe the attitudes towards Hu retaining
his role as chairman of the CMC.
Li says that in the Wang Lijun and Bo Xilai cases,
Jiang’s faction had lost its ground.
Hu Jintao, who had been clamped by Jiang’s faction
and unable to make any political decisions that would be
effective outside of Zhongnanhai, finally got out of this catch.
After 10 years of repression, Hu has only now started to
have control over the military.
Li Tianxiao says, at this crucial moment,
Hu will not give up this position easily.
[Dr. Li Tianxiao, Political Scientist]:
“Why can’t Hu let go easily?
The most important reason is liquidation and anti-liquidation
—such a key issue.
If he let go of military power easily, it’s likely that Bo Xilai
and Jiang’s faction will counterattack with their military force,
which is unfavorable to Hu—it’s a ‘life and death’ issue.”
Li Tianxiao says there’s another reason for Hu Jintao to
remain as CMC chairman.
[Dr. Li Tianxiao]: “Hu can help Xi Jinping in the military—
after all, Xi has weak military foundations—
when Xi takes power and tries to liquidate Jiang’s faction
further, he may need military power.
Basically, Hu’s military contacts have now become very
in-depth; so in this way, he can play a very important role."
South China Morning Post reported that Hu will no longer
remain as CMC chairman.
On the same day, it reported: “After Xi Jinping takes over
as CCP General Secretary,
he may still need to wait another two years to control
the world’s largest army—the People’s Liberation Army."
A few months ago, infighting between CCP senior factions
had been heating up;
one of the hot spots was over whether Hu Jintao
will continue to serve as CMC chairman.
Ping Kefu, military expert and editor-in-chief of Han Defense
Review magazine says, Hu is very likely to continue in office.
In September this year, Tung Chee-hwa, who has served as
vice-chairman of the National Committee of the CCP’s
Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference(CPPCC)
and as Hong Kong’s chief executive, took a media interview.
The U.S. Cable News Network(CNN) who took the interview
reported that Hu Jintao will not resign from all positions.
Tung believes Hu Jintao is likely to continue serving as
CMC chairman for some time.
Tung also emphasizes that he has not obtained any solid
information; his views are speculations based on history.
