【新唐人2012年11月3日讯】中共最高层的权力争斗，在经历了薄熙来案引发的军队震荡、习近平神隐14天，和温家宝家族被揭坐拥巨额财富等事件后，终于到了最后摊牌的时刻。不过这次中共党代会，能不能像中共宣称的那样“胜利召开、胜利闭幕”﹖还颇受外界关注。评论指出，这次中共内部的打斗比以往任何一次更为激烈，民众的愤怒也达到了空前的程度，中共这次聚会如何开成所谓“团结的大会、胜利的大会”仍有变数。
中共高官11月1号已经齐聚北京，在北京京西宾馆举行十七届“七中全会”，为下周的十八大作准备。按照惯例，十八大的会期为7天，随后举行“一中全会”，中共新领导班子预计在11月15号诞生。
评论指出，对于中共十八大如何开成团结、胜利的大会，观察的重点有四个：一是﹕在中共最高层的权力分配中，江泽民、胡锦涛、习近平的亲信分别拥有几席？二是﹕胡锦涛是否留任中央军委主席？三是﹕毛泽东思想是否退出中共党章。四是﹕十八大政治报告对民众期待的政治体制改革将如何表述？
此前，这些方面的传言在海外媒体已经广泛流传，中共新一届政治局7名常委的名单、分工也有详尽报导。
不过时政评论家陈破空认为，这次中共的内部斗争是文革以来最激烈的一次，目前还不能排除再次出现变数，尤其“差额选举”制给变数更增添了砝码。
时政评论家陈破空：“不仅在七中全会上人事名单出现变数，甚至到十八大开幕和闭幕那一天都可能出现人事名单的变数，因为中共党内的斗争是空前的激烈，就是文革后，各界党代会斗争，高层权力斗争最激烈的一次。权力斗争同时也有路线斗争，也就是十八大走什么路的问题。”
目前北京随处可见公安抽查身份证，京西宾馆一带，不但宾馆门口有军人站岗，随处可见警察维持秩序和临时封路。
陈破空：“因为目前中共非常没有安全感，他们把安保工作放在第一位，所以十七届七中全会也会检测一下他们目前的保卫工作做的怎样。因此接下来他们要所谓坚决打赢十八大保卫战，誓死保卫十八大，因为党内斗争空前的激烈，因此十八大要保障安全，尤其他们内部的安全。”
陈破空认为，对薄熙来的盖棺定论也是这一次会议的重点。
陈破空：“这个聚会我觉得他们的重点还是中纪委的工作报告，那就是关于薄熙来还有其他部长的处分，但是重点是薄熙来，中纪委的报告估计是个看点。这个看点会列举薄熙来具体的在党内违法违纪的证据和罪状，会说宣布移交司法机关的处理，我想这是个重要的看点，这个看点就会彻底倒薄，为十八大扫清路障。”
《百度》的搜寻显示，“十八大胜利召开”的新闻多达88万条。
中国问题研究人士张健认为，今天中共政权到了风雨飘摇的程度，它还是想用“缪论重复一千遍就是真理”的逻辑来蒙骗世人。
中国问题研究人士张健：“无论是今天，哪怕是最后，它都会是胜利、团结，它始终都是以这种形式，一、对国民进行教育，第二是、给自己一个壮胆的作用，它从来不顾及国际上人民，乃至其它民主国家，怎样看它这无耻的表演。”
陈破空表示，中共的权力斗争会体现在人事安排上，而它的路线斗争会体现在党章修改上。有传言说，可能会删掉总纲中的“毛泽东思想”﹔也有说要加进胡锦涛的“科学发展观”﹔还有传言说，可能会增加一些反腐条例等等，这些的增减都会影响到十八大的政治路线的走向。
北京宪政学者陈永苗曾对《新唐人》表示，民众关注的是﹕中国以后是走“民主宪政”路线，还是走“集权”路线﹖而不是中共的内斗中谁来主宰中国。
采访/梁欣 编辑/刘惠 后制/孙宁
Beijing’s 18th Party Congress: Uncertainty Remains
It is time for a showdown for the top-level infighting of
the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) authorities.
Over the past months,
the regime has suffered a series of shocks.
This includes a major military reshuffle;
Xi Jinping’s sudden Disappearance for 14 days;
and the expose of Wen Jiabao’s
billions-of-dollars of family wealth.
Will the 18th CCP Congress be “convened and concluded
triumphantly” as it has claimed in years of propaganda?
Political observers see the CCP infighting
has reached an unprecedented high level.
Meanwhile, Chinese citizens’ fury has also, peaked.
Therefore, the Party Congress situation remains somewhat in flux.
On November 1, CCP senior officials all gathered in
Beijing to attend the 7th plenary session of the 17th CCP Central Committee.
It is a conference leading up to the 18th Party Congress.
By convention, the Party Congress will last seven days
and subsequently, a first plenary session will be held.
A new CCP team leader is expected to be
decided on November 15.
Commentaries have been focused on four points
in observation of the CCP’s 18th Congress.
1. How many top seats will be taken by cronies of
Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao and of Xi Jinping?
2. Will Hu Jintao remain in office as head of the military?
3. Will Mao Zedong thought be removed from
the CCP’s Party Constitution?
4. How will the much-anticipated political reform be
expressed in the 18th Party Congress Report?
Earlier on, overseas media disclosed relevant news.
News reports also covered the list of the CCP’s seven
new top politburo leaders and their work assignment.
Critic Chen Pokong says, the CCP infighting has reached
the most intense peak since the Cultural Revolution.
He thinks that variation still cannot be ruled out yet.
The introduction of a multi-candidate election system is
expected to add variation to the final result.
Chen Pokong: “Change may occur on the list of candidates
for top leaders at the 7th plenary session.
It may even not be finalized until the day when the 18th
Party Congress opens or closes.
It’s also involved is a struggle over political line, that is,
which road will the 18th Party Congress leadership take.”
Now policemen scatter over Beijing to examine
the ID of suspicious people.
Soldiers are even mobilized to stand guard at some hotels.
The police are seen everywhere maintaining order and
erecting temporary road blocks.
Chen Pokong: “The CCP feels very insecure right now,
they put security as top priority.
The 7th plenary session’s opening is a chance for them
to test how security is achieved.
Next, they’ll prepare for “safeguarding
the 18th Party Congress”, in their words.
The unprecedented intense infighting has pressured
the CCP to assure security, especially of top leaders.”
Chen Pokong estimates that the regime’s final verdict will
top the agenda of the 7th plenary session.
Chen Pokong: “I think this conference will focus
on the work report made by the Central Discipline Inspection Commission.
That is, the punishment given to Bo Xilai and other
implicated ministers, but the emphasis is on Bo Xilai.
The Commission work statement is a high point, I believe.
It will detail evidence of Bo’s violation of Party discipline.
They will announce the moving of the case
through the legal process.
This high point will completely purge Bo Xilai and
clear the way for the new CCP leadership.”
Search engine Baidu showed over 880,000 search results
for phrases of “the 18th Party Congress and the triumphant opening”.
Zhang Jian, researcher on China issues,
remarks that the CCP rule has been tottering.
However, the regime still attempts to fool the public by
continuing with the philosophy that
‘A lie, repeated a thousand times, becomes a truth.”
Zhang Jian: “No matter whether it’s today or
the day it (the CCP) collapses,
it will always claim that it enjoys victory and solidarity.
This is a means that it has used it’s time to inculcate
the Chinese people and boost its morale.
But it never cares how such a performance proves it’s
shamelessness in the eyes of the international community.”
Chen Pokong interprets that the CCP’s power struggle often
can be seen on its personnel appointment.
The modification of its party constitution can illustrate clearly
its struggle over the political line to be taken.
There are rumors saying that Mao Zedong thought
will be removed from the party constitution,
and replaced by Hu Jintao’s scientific development concept.
Anti-corruption provisions were rumored to be included,
and so on.
All these changes will affect the political line to be held by
the 18th Party Congress, Chen Pokong remarks.
Chen Yongmiao, constitutional scholar in Beijing, says that
the Chinese public’ concern is which path will China take:
to follow constitutional democracy or the concentration
of it’s power?
It is not the issue of CCP infighting, but of how China
will be governed, according to Chen Yongmiao.
