【新唐人2012年10月30日讯】最近，《路透社》来自北京的一则报导显示，不少大陆外资企业寄望中共高层十八大换届之后，新领导层会藉支出增强经济复苏。不过，各界对于中共领导班子定局接班之后，是否会全力拼经济？看法不一。一名国务院的经济官员认为，明年（2013年）将是中国经济最为困难的一年。
报导说，目前，机械制造商“卡特彼勒”和“浦项钢铁”等一些在中国投资的大型企业，在面对全球经济增长前景暗淡的困境之下，将业绩成长的寄望，转向中国新一届领导人上任之后。“卡特彼勒”执行长道格•奥伯赫尔曼(Doug Oberhelman)向《路透社》表示，两周前他与中国分销商会面时，这些分析师“不约而同的认为这将是转捩点”，他们还期待在“中国新年”之前会出现实质性转变。
宝马汽车首席财务官费里德里希．艾希纳(Friedrich Eichiner)也表示：“相信下届政府将继续追寻‘增加刺激’的路线”。
纽约（城市）市立大学经济学教授陈志飞：“实际上，套句俗话讲‘肥水不流外人田’，中国政府这种刺激对像也是国营企业﹔或者是，国家重点的基础建设项目。譬如，高速铁路、通讯、能源这些方面，它是得到大量资金的。”
陈志飞还分析，目前中共当局唯一能作的只有投资，而且投资速度在加快。
陈志飞：“因为，如果投资这块再趋弱的话，实际上GDP的下降会更加怵目惊心。有外界学者甚至认为，它上半年的数字有造假嫌疑。因为，它第二季度报的好像是7.6％GDP增长。专家从用电量和各方面消费等来看，它GDP增长可能就是1％左右，甚至有人说是负的。”
陈志飞指出，在这种情况之下，中共肯定启动投资、增加基建项目来拉动GDP﹔这也是中共一贯的手法。
陈志飞：“这个钱会不会流到外资的口袋里，我觉得这可能是有点一厢情愿。因为，中国政府现在对外资，对这些常建项目的投资，还是有明确的策略的。除非你在技术上面，能够让它觉得有利可图，否则不让你介入。另外一点，即便你技术上有优势，但是，涉及国家的所谓有战略意义的这种项目，譬如能源、电讯还有金融这种服务性行业，实际上你还是根本没有介入的可能。”
卡特彼勒执行长Oberhelman还表示，从中共官员处得到的讯息是，建筑许可会增多，一系列基建专案将会公布。Oberhelman猜测，所有这些项目推出的时间，是在中共领导层换届之后，大部分会是在明年春天之前。
一位不愿透露姓名的国务院发展研究中心的经济专家向《新唐人》表示，目前，中国的经济一直在倒退。新一届领导班子上台之后，肯定想把中国经济景况，发展得比前几届领导人来得好。不过，欧美经济要复苏还需要时间，外部经济危机影响了中国的经济发展。美国的QE3政策，欧洲、中国等货币宽松的政策，只是暂时解决了经济的困难和危机。
国务院发展研究中心经济专家：“但是，长期的影响是通货膨胀，就是伤害了制造业、消费业﹔长期的来讲它是影响了经济的发展，不管是哪个国家都会受到影响。中国的出口受到影响、中国的制造业受到影响、中国的人民币也会受到影响﹔人民币不得不升值，也对中国的经济造成影响。这中国的经济现在是一塌糊涂。”
这位经济专家还指出，中国的经济并不健全。譬如，只是“发展中国家”的中国，房地产的价格，却因人为的炒作，比发达国家价格还高。
国务院发展研究中心经济专家：“这就是泡沫。这泡沫当然是国家搞的、政策搞的、领导人搞的。它不这样搞经济发展不起来，所以中国现在不是市场经济，是变相的计划经济。所以，这个经济发展泡沫，习近平上台以后，要不要给它挤破？我们的研究结果是，肯定会挤破。结果是经济‘哗’下来了。他不愿意维持，太累了！还要维持每年10％的增长速度吗，不可能了。”
这位专家估计，明年下半年，习近平一定会把经济泡沫捅破。那么，2013年将是中国经济最困难的一年。
采访编辑/梁欣 后制/李月
The Hope of Reviving Economy in China Is Frail
A Reuters report from Beijing states that many foreign
businesses in China hope the new leadership change
of the CCP 18th Congress will pour money into reviving
China’s economy.
However, people have differing opinions regarding whether
the new leadership will strive to improve the economy.
One State Council official believes 2013 will be the most
difficult year for China’s economy.
The report states that large enterprises, such as machinery
manufacturer Caterpillar and steel manufacturer POSCO,
who face dim global economic prospects, hope for sales
growth after China’s new leadership takes over.
Caterpillar CEO Doug Oberhelman told Reuters that when
he met two distributors in China two weeks ago, these analysts think there will be a turning point.
They also look forward to substantial changes
before the Chinese New Year in 2013.
BMW CFO Friedrich Eichiner also expressed that he believes
China’s new leaders will continue down the path to stimulate economy.
NYC University Professor of Economics Chen Zhifei:
“In fact, the object of the Chinese Government’s stimulus
will be state-owned enterprises and key infrastructure projects
such as high-speed railways, telecommunications, energy, etc.
They will get a lot of money.”
Chen Zifei analyses that currently the only thing the Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) authorities can do is invest, and at an accelerated pace.
Chen Zhifei: “If the investment is weak, the GDP will decline.
Some scholars even suspect China’s H1 data is fraudulent.
For example, Q2’s GDP growth was reported to be 7.6%.
Experts think it could be 1%, or even negative, based
on the consumption of electricity and other materials.”
Chen Zhifei points out that in this situation, the CCP will
for sure turn to investment and increase infrastructure projects to increase GDP.
Chen Zhifei: “Will the money go to foreign businesses?
I think this may just be wishful thinking.
The Chinese government now has a clear view
of investments in these projects.
Unless it thinks there is a benefit to the technology,
it will not let you in.
Moreover, even with a technology advantage, there is no
possibility to get into the so-called national projects
of strategic significance such as in energy,
telecommunications, and the financial service industry.”
Caterpillar CEO Oberhelman said the message from the CCP
officials is that building permits will increase and a series of infrastructure projects will be announced.
Oberhelman guesses that all of these projects will be launched
after the new leadership takes over in the spring of 2013.
An economic expert from the Development Research Center
of the State Council told NTD China’s economy has been moving backwards.
After the new leadership takes office, they will certainly
want to turn China’s economic situation over.
However, it will take time for Europe
and the U.S. economies to recover.
External economic crisis has affected China’s development.
U.S.’ QE3 policy and other monetary easing policies
in Europe, China, and other countries only temporarily solves the economic difficulties and crises.
Economic expert from the Development Research Center:
“The long-term impact is inflation, which hurts the manufacturing sector and consumers,
and affect economic development.
All countries will be affected.
China’s export is impacted, as well as the manufacturing
industry and RMB are affected.
RMB is forced to appreciate, impacting China’s economy.
China’s economy is now a mess.”
The economic experts also pointed out that China’s economy
is not robust.
For example, as a developing country, China’s real estate
is higher than developed countries as the result of inflated prices.
The economic experts: “This is a bubble created by the state
policies and leadership, the only way to boost the economy.
So China does not have a free market.
It has a twisted, controlled economy.
Will Xi Jinping break the bubble after he takes over?
We think for sure, based on our research.
The economy will decline sharply.
He does not want to maintain it. It is too exhausting.
It is not possible to maintain a growth rate of 10%.”
The expert estimates in H2 2013 Xi Jinping will break
the bubble.
2013 will be the toughest year of China’s economy.
