【新唐人2012年10月29日讯】总部设在华盛顿的一个智库，在最新发布的一份报告中说，从2000到去年，中国有3.79万亿美元资金非法流向境外，并且外流的速度在飞速上升。报告指出，这将对中国社会以及政局的稳定产生不利影响。报告还发现，资金非法外流最常用的手段是一种被称为“出口伪报”的洗钱技术。
这家设在华盛顿的“全球金融诚信”组织GFI（Global Financial Integrity），专门关注全球跨境的非法资金流向。经组织研究发现，中国非法资金外流正以飞快的速度增长，从2000年的1726亿美金增长到去年（2011年）的6029亿。综合GFI曾经发表的与此有关的报告，中国已经成为世界上最受非法资金外流困扰的国家。
报告还发出警告指称，资金大规模外流将让中国承受严重的后果。其中指出：“如果非法资金外流量持续呈上升趋势，就无法排除这将对中国社会以及政局的稳定，产生不利影响的可能。”
报告的撰写者之一戴夫·卡表示：“中国的经济是一颗已经被定时的炸弹。从长期来看，在如此大规模非法资金外流的条件下，中国的社会、政治以及经济秩序无法持续。”
北京注册会计师杜延林解释说，从经济的基本原理来说，一个国家的消费和经济增长都需要资金，资金越在国内市场流通，越能提高投入资金的量。
北京注册会计师杜延林：“在一个正常国家，大多数消费者或公民他手里的资金主要是用于消费的，但是如果一个国家，他的收入分配极不均衡，或者有极大差距，在这种情况下，从经济学的角度，消费肯定不足。第二个，经济增长是需要投资的，投资需要资金。这个资金如果在国内银行存放，或者在国内市场上流通的话，他会提高投入资金的量，使得投资不会出现投资不足。”
“全球金融诚信”组织负责人贝克(Raymond Baker)表示：几十年来，他一直关注全球范围内的金融犯罪、腐败和逃税。而中国非法资金外流的幅度令人震惊。他说，世界上没有任何其他一个发展中国家或者新兴国家像中国这样，如此大规模的受到非法资金外流的影响。
杜延林认为，资金外流主要有三个管道：贪官，企业家和投资移民。
杜延林：“因为我们知道中国是一个权力社会。只要有权力，就能够积累大量财富。所以我相信大量的没有被揭露出来的人，他的资金都是流入境外的。还有一个管道就是对未来信心不足，有一些企业家，通过借贷，因为通过正常经营收回成本是很难的，那么他就卷钱离开。这也是一个管道。第三个管道，可能就是我们说的投资移民。”
这份由GFI首席经济学家撰写的报告发现，无论是通过金融犯罪、腐败还是逃税的手段，大量资金从中国非法流入境外时大多都会依赖一种基于国际贸易的洗钱技术，这种技术也被称作“出口伪报”，也就是国内出口商安排国外买主超额收费，而后把超额的款项存入国外账户。
报告显示，过去的11年中，中国非法流入境外资金的86.2%，也就是3.2万亿美金都是通过这种办法流向海外的。“全球金融诚信”声称，组织的经济学家掌握了独家的关于中国“出口伪报”的信息。将在最新发布的杂志中刊登相关内容。
采访编辑/秦雪 后制/王明宇
USD 3 Trillion Illegal Outflows in China Effect Economic and Political Stability
Recently, Washington DC’s Global Financial Integrity’s
(GFI) Headquarters reported that between 2000 to 2011,
China has USD 3.79 Trillion of illicit financial outflow.
The outflows are said to be rising.
The newly released GFI report stated that it will badly
effect Chinese society, and the countries political stability.
The report said that a common form of illegal outflow
is money laundering, known as “trade mis-invoicing”.
Washington DC-based GFI specializes in focusing
on the global cross-border illicit outflows.
GFI discovered that China’s illicit
outflows are increasing sharply.
It has increased from USD 172.6 Billion
in 2000, to USD 602.9 Billion in 2011.
Past studies observed such massive outflows are making
China the Worlds largest victim of illicit financial outflows.
The report warns that such massive outflows
will have serious ramifications for China.
The report said that “if outflows continue to ratchet
upwards, adverse repercussions on social and political stability can’t be ruled out.”
Dr. Dev Kar, one of the authors of this report:
“The Chinese economy is a ticking time bomb.”
Social, political and economic order isn’t sustainable
in the long-run, given such massive illicit outflows.”
Du Yanlin, a Beijing Chartered Accountant said
that basic economic theory tells us that consumption and economic growth need funds.
The more flow of funds within the home market,
the more investment can be increased.
Du Yanlin: “In a normal country, the majority
of consumers have money in hand to spend.
However, in a country where incomes are
uneven or there is a great gap existing, consumption is certainly insufficient.
In addition, economic growth needs
investment, which in turn needs money.
If money is deposited in banks, or flowing within the domestic
market, investment will grow, and won’t lack funds to invest.”
Raymond Baker, Director of GFI said that he’s studied
proceeds from crime, corruption and tax evasion for decades.
Raymond Baker: “The magnitude of illicit
money flowing out of China is astonishing.
There’s no other developing or emerging
economy that even comes close to suffering as much in illicit financial outflows.”
Du Yanlin believes that there are three channels for money
outflows: corrupt officials, entrepreneurs and immigrants.
Du Yanlin: “As we know, in China, power is above all.
If you have power, you can accumulate
a huge amount of properties.
I believe that a lot of people have not been
exposed yet whose money are all outflows.
There is another channel that is lack
of confidence for the future in China.
Some entrepreneurs have borrowed money,
then escaped, as it is difficult to recover the cost via normal operations.
This is one of the channels that is causing outflows.
The third channel is immigrants’ investment.”
The report conducted by GFI Lead Economist, stated
that with illegal outflows from China, which are
proceeds of crime, corruption and tax evasion,
were largely due to a trade-based money laundering.
This is a technique known as “trade mis-invoicing.”
That is, domestic exporters arrange foreign buyers
to overcharge, then the overcharged amount will be deposited in the sellers’ foreign bank account.
The report shows that in the past 11 years, 86.2% of the total
illicit outflows, or USD 3.2 Trillion has been removed this way.
GFI said that “trade mis-invoicing” figures were
provided exclusively to “The Economist” magazine.
It published the figures in the latest edition.
