【新唐人2012年10月20日讯】距离中共十八大已不足3个星期，目前中南海改革的声音似乎越来越多、也越来越强，经济、民生、文化等各个领域都在摩拳擦掌。那么，到底是中国要跟上世界潮流进入民主法制社会？还是18前打“高射炮”，让民众对新政充满希望？或者，“小打小闹的”做一些调整，以延续共产党的统治，让习近平、李克强从“改革”和“维持一党独大”的两难中突围出来。下面请看专家分析。
目前中南海发出改革的声浪，一浪高于一浪，在法制改革后又出来了“两个凡是”，《国务院关于第六批取消和调整行政审批专案的决定》里声称，凡是公民、法人或其他组织能够自主决定等的事项，政府都要退出﹔凡是可以采用事后监管和间接管理方式的事项，一律不设前置审批。
这一切好像表明习近平、李克强等人正按部就班进行主政的“热身”。
而国际舆论对中国的前途持两种看法，一种认为习近平、李克强会推动进一步的改革开放，甚至包括政治体制改革，以此来对付纠缠中共很久的贪污腐败，民主、人权不彰等问题，让中国可以在社会矛盾总爆发之前软着陆。
另一种看法认为，中共已经改革无力，利益集团阻挠了任何的进步可能性，而腐败最终将导致社会大动乱，中共这条船将在习近平主政的十年内沉掉。
时政评论家蓝述指出，目前中共媒体上所提到的这些改革，还是局限在行政改革层面，谈不上政治改革。
时政评论家蓝述：“在中共现行的一党体制之下，政治改革都没有任何成功的可能，就何况要搞不谈政改的行政改革，那就更没有任何希望了。中共在政治层面的改革之所以不可能有任何进展，是因为中共的文化已经完完全全被时代给淘汰了。”
蓝述说，中共枪杆子里面保政权的党文化，从根本上是反人道的，加上中共的“无神论”又失去信仰基础，让人民仇视神佛，也就不可能得到神佛的护佑，无法从精神文明上营造出盛唐和美国这样的太平盛世。
有评论指出，因为中国的经济增长，并没有像前“世界银行”副行长林毅夫所预测的，还可以持续20年，而是出现了下滑的趋势，这种趋势持续，自然就会丧失以前通过GDP两位数的经济增长来掩盖社会矛盾，延后政治改革的所谓“优势”，因此，增加了社会矛盾爆发的危机。
蓝述认为，中国下一代领导人如果拒绝放弃中共的政治体制，最后不得不面对中国社会的大动荡，民众将起来彻底推翻中共。
蓝述：“不论中共现在的这批领导人愿不愿意，中共垮台只是时间问题，而且是一个非常短的时间内就会发生问题，只不过在这个大的形势面前，如果有一批人愿意从中共体制内走出来，那么，会给中国社会带来社会成本比较小的社会转型。”
蓝述认为，在巨大的国际和国内社会的压力之下，中共内部有可能出现象戈尔巴乔夫这样的人物。
不过政论家伍凡认为，中共放出的改革言论越放越多，也越放越空。伍凡说，目前的舆论是在为18大营造气氛，让人们对习近平、李克强抱有期望。
政论家伍凡：“根据他们所公布的资料来分析的话，你还真的能上当、受骗。但是你把它的东西拿来一层一层剥开来看，就不是那么回事啦。它们不想改。它们要维持共产党这个专政，这是第一，要保留共产党这个体系，在有些地方做些小改小闹，那叫做‘行政改革’，不是政治改革。”
北京国情内参首席研究员巩胜利希望世人在谈论中国时，把中共和中国分开。他说，告别独裁，走向民主，是世界的大趋势，不过中国改革千头万绪，如果不先废除“共产党”，改革寸步难移。
采访编辑/刘惠 后制/王明宇
What is Behind Zhongnanhai’s Claims of Reform?
The 18th National Congress of the Chinese Communist
Party (CCP) is to be held within three weeks.
Voices from Zhongnanhai alleging to make reforms
continue to spread through official medias.
Reforms were reported to involve various areas,
including the economy, livelihood and culture.
Is China really keeping up with
the worlds trends in democracy?
Or is it just CCP hype to create public
expectation for its new leadership?
Is it also perhaps the regime’s tactic to keep maintain
CCP rule by making minor changes in some fields.
Is this helping Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang
break through this dilemma, to make reforms or to maintain CCP one-party rule?
In recent months, Zhongnanhai has continuously
alleged that it will implement reforms.
In suggesting it will make legal reforms, the regime
released a new version of the “Two Whatevers",
a statement which originally referred to undertaking
Chairman Mao’s wishes without question.
The CCP State Council asserted that the
government shall end its control over whatever
issues that citizens, legal persons or other
organizations can exercise their own discretion.
No pre-approval shall be made for whatever items that
can be supervised either retroactively or indirectly.
All these seem to be a “warm-up" for the new CCP
leadership to take office, led by Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang.
Internationally, the public holds two
point of view on China’s future.
The first point of view believes that Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang
will promote opening-up, including political reform.
In this way, Xi and Li will address the issues
that have long entangled the CCP.
These issues include corruption,
democracy and human rights.
This will offer China a soft landing before unleashing
a firestorm of social conflicts, according to this view.
Another view holds that the CCP
is helpless to make any reform.
The interest groups are thwarting all possible progress.
CCP corruption will finally cause large social turmoil.
The CCP regime boat will sink within
the decade under the reign of Xi Jinping.
Critic Lan Shu says that alleged CCP reforms in
state media are still at the level of administration.
They do not represent political reform in a real sense.
Lan Shu: “It’s not possible at all to make
political reforms under one-party CCP rule, let alone its so-called administrative reform.
There’s no way for the CCP
to make successful political reform.
The core reason is that the CCP culture and mode
of thinking have completely been weeded out.”
Lan Shu explains that CCP party culture is against humanity.
It embraces the view that resorting to
violence to hold onto the regimes power.
Besides, the CCP’s “atheism" totally does not believe in gods,
Thus, those Chinese people wouldn’t be protected by heaven.
This is why Communists China wouldn’t achieve high level of
prosperities such as the Tang dynasty or the U.S.A.
Some observers said that China’s economy did not
follow Justin Yifu Lin’s prediction, but is slowing down.
Lin, the World Bank’s ex-Vice President, forecast that
China could maintain 8% growth for the next 20 years.
The downward trend exposes that in the past, the truth that
social conflicts were covered up by double-digit GDP growth.
The slowdown also downplays the role of so-called
“superiority" of implementing political reforms.
This will fuel the potential explosion of social
conflicts, according to commentaries.
Lan Shu warns the CCP’s new leadership team.
If they still keep holding onto the CCP political system,
large social unrest will erupt, overthrowing CCP rule.
Lan Shu: “It’s just a matter of time for the CCP
to collapse, which is beyond its leaders’ willingness.
It will occur very shortly, I believe.
But if some people inside the CCP system choose
to desert it by quitting the CCP, that will lower the risk in making social transformation.”
Lan Shu thinks that under huge international and domestic
pressure, figures like Mikhail Gorbachev may emerge.
Political commentator Wu Fan remarks that
CCP reform claims only show its flimsiness.
The regime is creating a positive
atmosphere for its 18th Party Congress.
These official assertions were released to create
public expectation toward Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang.
Wu Fan: “You’ll be really fooled by it if you
just read the information that is released.
But you can discern the truth after you dissect the remarks.
They’ve never really wanted to make political reform.
It insisted to maintain the CCP one-party
rule and maintain the system.
So, their trivial changes in some areas can only be called
‘administrative reform’, instead of true political reform."
Gong Shengli, Chief Researcher of Beijing-based
periodical Internal Reference on the State of China, reminds the public to distinguish the CCP from China.
Gong Shengli says that the world trend is deserting
dictatorship and moving towards democracy.
Purging the CCP should be the top priority of China’s reform.
Otherwise, it will be virtually impossible for any
other reform, according to Gong Shengli.
