【新唐人2012年10月8日讯】自中共中央政治局会议决定，前重庆市委书记薄熙来被“双开”，以及确定中共“十八大”会期，10月成为中共“十七届七中全会”，和中共“十八大”最关键的筹备期。有报导指称，这最后筹备期之所以“关键”，是因为有个“翻盘”之忧。分析认为，从当局对薄熙来的态度来看，在“十八大”前“翻盘”的可能性很小，“十八大”之后，才是中共真正变局的开始。
有海外媒体报导说，中国十八大前有“翻盘”之忧，可能翻的是什么盘呢？报导指出，主要体现在两大方面，一个是人事大盘，一个是政治大盘。
报导说，人事大盘，主要指政治局常委的名单，将影响到明年3月国家领导体制的人事调整，以及政府、人大、政协三套班子的调整。
而政治大盘，则由中共“十八大”的政治报告来承载，胡锦涛做最后一份政治总结报告，同时，也是习近平、李克强宣布新领导层的大政方针—-施政新纲领，因此，是各方势力必然进袭的一个盘子。
美国“乔治梅森大学”教授、时事评论家章天亮认为，“十八大”之前出现变数的可能性不大。
时事评论家 章天亮：“现在基本上已经定盘了，就是说，薄熙来会受到重判，现在有人预料，他甚至可能判处死刑立即执行，也就是说现在胡温已经彻底的把周永康、江泽民、薄熙来，这一派系‘血债帮’已经给打垮了，打垮了之后的话，剩下的事，是怎么样安排人事的问题了。”
章天亮还指出，在“十八大”之前，“血债帮”没有翻盘机会，“十八大”之后，才是中共真正变局的开始。
章天亮：“因为十八大之后，除了审薄熙来之外，习近平上台，他现在也要考虑到自己还能做多长时间，中共不会再有十年的寿命了，从现在的情况来看，所有中共能够用了维系统治的那些，手段也好，或者说借口也好，已经都用尽了。”
外界认为，在中共双开薄熙来的公告中，有一句“调查中还发现薄熙来其他涉嫌犯罪问题的线索”，留下了对薄熙来判刑的巨大议论空间。与此同时，大陆网上短暂解禁了“活摘器官”和“薄熙来”“王立军”等敏感词。
今年4月，王立军事件后，大陆百度网站和中国四大微博，也曾经一度解禁“活摘器官”等关键词，从而引发揣测。
章天亮：“现在大陆民怨四起，至于共产党来，如果再延续过去的政策，可能很快就被抗暴也好。或者其他别的因素所吞没，现在就是说，活摘法轮功学员器官，这种人神共愤的事情，也掩盖不住了，中共政权可以说集体待毙了，只是看当权的这些人，他们自己是怎么选择。”
此外，海外中文媒体发文指称，被公认已成“活死尸”的前中共党魁江泽民，9月22号晚“罕见现身”国家大剧院，观看西方音乐剧。但是，大陆官方媒体对此没有任何报导。舆论认为，江泽民在中共十八大权力更迭前夕亮相的消息，官媒至今绝口不提，却由海外媒体替江系放风，暗藏“诡异”，对江派势力来讲是一个很不好的兆头。
章天亮：“这说明江泽民已经衰的不行了，就包括本身都可能是个假消息，周永康是死保他（薄熙来）的，薄熙来被重判，说明周永康不但保不住他，可能自身都难保。”
因此，中共新一届所谓的领导班子，是选择抛弃中共，从新审视历史，还是选择为中共陪葬，就显得尤为重要。
采访编辑/常春 后制/周天
Political Upheaval in CCP Rule: Veil Will Be Uncovered After 18th National Congress
The Chinese Communist Party recently
made two announcements.
Bo Xilai, former party chief in Chongqing, was expelled
from the party and removed from his post.
The date for the 18th National Congress was also decided.
October is now the period of preparation,
ahead of the Congress in November.
Reports state that October is a very critical time,
because there may be upheavals taking place.
Some analysts think there is little chance that upheavals
will occur before the 18th National Congress.
This is based on observing Bo Xilai’s current situation.
However, after the 18th National Congress,
a real upheaval might take place in China.
Some overseas media reported that upheavals may take
place in China before the 18th National Congress.
How might upheaval manifest?
The reports state that there could be personnel
changes, and political changes.
The report further stated that the personnel situation refers
to committee members in the Standing Committee.
This will impact the personnel modification
of the senior authorities in early March next year.
It also impacts administrative governments, National
Congress members and Political Consultative members.
China’s political situation will be dominated by the last
political report that Hu Jintao is going to make in the 18th National Congress, before his term of presidency expires.
It’s also about new political policies that Xi Jinping
and Li Keqiang are going to announce.
This is also what all the party factions are trying to pin down.
Zhang Tianliang, Professor from
George Mason University, commented
There is little chance that any upheaval will take
place in China before the 18th National Congress.
Zhang Tianliang: “Now the political situation in China
is almost clear. Bo Xilai will be convicted.
Some people predict that Bo will be given
the death penalty, and an immediate execution.
This means that Hu Jintao & Wen Jiabao have
already defeated the blood-debt faction of Jiang Zemin, Zhou Yongkang and Bo Xilai.
The next step is about rearranging personnel.”
Zhang Tianliang also highlights that the blood-debt faction
does not now have another chance to plot interference before the 18th National Congress.
Only after the 18th National Congress
could a political upheaval happen in China.
Zhang Tianliang: “After the 18th National Congress,
Xi Jinping will need to think about how long his term of presidency can last.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in China
cannot last another 10 years any more.
The CCP has already used up all means
or excuses to maintain its rule in China.”
In the announcement of Bo Xilai’s expulsion from the party
and removal from his post, there is a sentence stating
“during investigation, Bo Xilai was found to have
been involved in other criminal activities.”
This sentence provides a wide range of possibilities
about what crimes Bo will be convicted of.
Meanwhile, China has temporarily lifted
an internet ban on sensitive words, such as “Live organ harvesting”, “Bo Xilai” and “Wang Lijun”.
After the “Wang Lijun Incident” in April, Baidu and
other micro-blogging sites also temporarily un-banned sensitive words like “Live organ harvesting”.
This phenomenon trigged a lot of speculation.
Zhang Tianliang: “In China, people’s
discontentment is widespread.
If the CCP continue’s to rule as it has in the past, it might
be overturned very soon, or be undermined by other factors.
This brutal and inhuman crime, live organ harvesting
from Falun Gong practitioners, can no longer remain hidden.
All the CCP senior authorities are facing the death penalty.
We are watching what choices they are going to make.”
Some overseas media reported that Jiang Zemin,
widely known to be in a vegetative state, appeared in the National Theater to watch a western opera.
However, China’s official media didn’t report a word about it.
Some observers think that it’s not a positive sign for Jiang’s
faction, when they used Jiang Zemin to influence the 18th National Congress but official media haven’t reported on it.
It’s strange that that the news about Jiang’s appearance
in the National Theater was only reported by overseas media.
Zhang Tianliang: ”This means that Jiang Zemin
has no influence in China at all now.
Even the news about Jiang’s appearance
at the National Theater might be fake.
Zhou Yongkang has been firmly supporting Bo Xilai.
It has turned out that Zhou Yongkang was not able to protect
Bo Xilai, and Zhou is not even able to protect himself now.”
Therefore, it is now critical whether the new leadership
will abandon the CCP and re-evaluate history.
Or will they choose to be buried with the CCP?
