【新唐人2012年10月3日讯】最近大陆的经济研究人员，以“黄奇帆和戴相龙的双簧泄露天机”为标题，撰文说：两名本来不搭嘎的官员，因为他们两人的言论有相似之处，有“唱双簧”的意思。到底是怎么回事，让我们一起来了解。
“中国社会保障基金理事会”理事长戴相龙上个月25号在上海表示，养老金确实有缺口，而解决的方式“不是被动的准备钱而是调整这个制度”，据戴相龙介绍，完善养老金制度，可能涉及“延长退休年龄”和“延长养老金缴纳年限”等措施。
“北京大学”经济学院教授夏业良表示，中国养老的问题早在1949年共产党取得政权之后，就以“只要为社会主义作贡献，所有的养老由国家（政府）来负责”，向劳动者做出了承诺。
“北京大学”经济学院教授夏业良：“当年那一代人都是很辛苦的，为建设做出很多。结果，到他们退休的时候，就没有这样一笔钱在等着他们。所以只好临时凑，凑的钱都很少。所以他们那一代的人得到的退休金都非常微薄。”
到了1990年代之后，中共当局才正式考虑建立“养老金账户”，由国家、个人和企、事业机构，分别拿出一部分钱，储存作为“退休养老金”。夏业良指出，“中国社保基金缺口”已是持续很多年的问题。
夏业良：“早在10前我跟经济学家吴敬琏在一起，就听他说道，说他在朱镕基任总理期间就曾经跟他谈过这个问题。说那个时候，大概社保基金缺口只有7百多亿。而现在这个差口越来越大，它不是几百亿，而至少是几千亿，那么，甚至上万亿这样的一个缺口，如果国家不来填补，谁能够填这么大一个差距、缺口。”
另一方面，上个月19号，重庆市召集当地68家金融机构和金融监管机构，开了一个“协调联席会”。与会上，重庆市市长黄奇帆要求重庆市属的“三大银行”带头，在2015年，“中间业务费”占总收入的比重要达到30%，至少25%；2020年要达到40%或者45%。
夏业良：“这是完全在瞎指挥。政府过多的干预经济，就会造成，又回到计划经济时代那样一些怪圈，那样一个陷阱。中国经济现在处于一个衰退的状态，所以说如果再这样瞎搞下去的话，自然规律经济、经济规律一定会发生作用，来惩罚那些自以为是的政府官员。”
目前，大多经济专家、学者看坏中国的经济形势。会议上，黄奇帆为当地金融界“打气”说，中国比欧美、日本等资本主义国家，多了至少“3个三万亿美元”的调控能力。
《新唐人》特约经济评论专家杰森．马表示，“外汇储备”本身已经发行，不能拿回国内再用。
《新唐人》特约经济评论专家杰森．马：“它不能把外汇储备三万亿拿来还他政府债务，经济上是不允许这么做。以前它这么做过，事实上是有很大争议的。他变相的是在凭空的印钞票，冲稀中国的人民币的价值，换句话说，就造成人民币通货膨胀。”
杰森．马指出，美国等西方国家，财政的60％负债，是因为支付百姓的各项福利支出所造成。而中共当局用于百姓福利的支出非常低，是在中共官员“三公吃喝”的情况下欠债40％。
杰森．马：“这时候他舔不知耻的说，按人家的标准，我还能再多欠三万亿。换句话说，他整个贪污的份量，三公的消费、政府的浪费，国内维稳的透支还能再大一些。第三个就是，现在的这个国有企业，把他卖给私人企业，他本身机构臃肿、效率低下，失去垄断地位，这些企业是一个负债，它禁不起任何自由市场竞争的冲击。”
大陆经济研究人员马宇认为，不知谁捅破了谁的肥皂泡，恰好泄露了天机。其一，钱可以有，但不是给你们老百姓的，你们交的养老金最好也别往回拿﹔其二，钱真的没有，那三件“ 防弹衣”(外汇储备)都是假的，是纸糊的！
采访编辑/梁欣 后制/钟元
China’s Pension, Foreign Exchange Reserve Becomes ATM.
Recently, economic researchers in Mainland China
published articles saying
two officials who seem not to have anything to do with
each other – Huang Qifan and Dai Xianglong,
seem to be giving a two-man show.
Let’s take a look at what is going on.
On September 15th, China Social Security Fund Council
chairman Dai Xianglong expressed in Shanghai that
there really is a gap in retirement pension,
and the way to solve it is not to prepare money
passively but to adjust the system.
According to Dai, improving pension system may involve
extending retirement age and extending the number of years one pays for pension.
Peking University School of Economics professor
Xia Yeliang expresses,
after the CCP obtained political power in 1949,
it promised to workers that as long as they contribute to social democracy,
all retirement expenses will be the
responsibility of the nation.
Xia Yeliang: “People in that generation all had a
very difficult time, they did a lot for development,
but at the end, when they are retired,
there is no fund waiting for them,
so they can only try to gather money here and there,
the money they get is very little, so the retirement fund they received is very meager.”
The CCP only started to officially consider the
establishment of the “pension account”.
The nation, individuals and enterprises all take out
some money as retirement pension.
Xia Yeliang points out, China’s social security fund gap
is a problem that has been continuing for years.
Xia Yeliang: “As early as ten years ago, I was with
economist Wu Jinglian,
and I heard him say he had talked to Zhu Rongji about
this problem when Zhu was in office.
Said at that time, social security fund gap was only
more than seven billion, but now this gap is bigger.
It is not a few billion, but at least a few hundred billion.
So, if the nation cannot fill this gap, then who can fill
such a large difference, such a large gap.”
On the other hand, on September 19th, Chongqing City
held a coordination meeting with 68 financial institutions and financial regulators.
At the meeting, Chongqing City Mayor Huang Qifan asked
Chongqing’s three largest banks to take the lead,
that the intermediate operating expense must reach at least
25% of total earnings in 2015, and at least 40% by 2020.
Xia Yeliang;” This is completely giving orders in vain.
Government intervening in economics too much will create
that weird loop, that sort of trap during the era of planned economy.
China’s economy is now in a state of decline,
so if they continue to give orders blindly,
then the natural laws of economy must take affect and
punish those presumptuous government officials.”
Currently, many economic experts and scholars look badly
upon China’s economic trend.
At the meeting, Huang Qifan tried to “pump up”
local financial institutions and said compared to Europe,
United States, Japan and other capitalist countries,
China has at least nine trillion more U.S. dollars of regulatory capacity.
New Tang Dynasty special economic commentator
Jason Ma expresses,
foreign exchange reserves has been released and
cannot be taken back to China to use.
Jason Ma: “It cannot take the three trillion worth of
foreign exchange reserves to pay back the government debt, economically it is not allowed.
It has been done before, in reality it was very controversial,
it is printing cash with no backup, diluting the value of RMB.
In other words, it created inflation of RMB.”
Jason points out, 60% of debt in western countries
such as the United States is created by welfare and various expenses paid to the people,
but the welfare expense for the Chinese regime is very low,
40% of debt are created due to CCP officials’ personal squandering of public funds.
Jason: “Now they shamelessly say according to the standard,
I can still owe three trillion.
In other words, the amount of corruption, personal
squandering of public funds, government’s waste,
and stability maintenance overdraft can be a little bit more.
The third is, the state-owned enterprises are sold
to private enterprises now.
Its own institutions are overstaffed, inefficient,
have lost monopoly position,
these enterprises are a liability, it cannot withstand the
impact of free market competition.”
Mainland economic researcher Mayu believes,
it is not clear who busted whose bubble, but coincidentally it leaked heavenly secrets.
For one, it is ok to have money, but it is not for the citizens,
and it is better if you don’t take back the pension fund you’ve paid.
For two, there is really no money, those three
“bullet proof jackets” (foreign exchange reserves) are all fake, is glued together with paper!
