【新唐人2012年10月3日讯】过去半年，因为“薄熙来丑闻”引发的中共权力交接危机后，全世界都想知道：中共还能维持政权多久？最近的美国《外交学者》杂志评论指出，如果中共不立刻放弃极权统治，向民主转型，等待它的只有苏联式崩溃一条路。
《外交学者》网站10月1号的文章指出，尽管北京宣布十八大将在11月8号召开：中共最高领导人也如释重负的终于就处理薄熙来，和由谁进入最高层，达成了一致；人们也可以预计，中共会在未来几个月，极力打造一个团结的形象，来继续维持它的中央集权专制，但是人们已经看到中共来日无多。
文章认为，中共内部的凝聚力和领导力的信心已经被撼动，其中的因素包括：薄熙来事件、深度腐败、改革停滞、经济放缓、社会动荡加剧、与邻国及美国关系恶化等。作者说，任何对此怀疑的人都去看一看中国的微博，感受一下普通中国人对他们政府的看法就明白了。
美国加州“克莱蒙特麦肯纳学院”政府学教授裴敏欣是这篇文章的作者。他在文章中说，中共和其他极权统治一样，面临两条道路：一是，苏联的“自我毁灭道路”，另一条则是像台湾和墨西哥的“自我改造道路”。但是，他说，中共是一个极权主义政党，它们控制军队、司法、政府和经济的程度，远远超过专制形式的国民党和墨西哥的革命制度党，因此，也就更难摆脱原有的形式。
文章还指出，世界上最长寿的一党专制政权是前苏共的74年，中共已经在中国执政63年，也进入了老年。如果它不立即进行政治改革，去掉极权化并把共产党转型，“苏联式的崩溃”将是它唯一的未来。
时事评论员张杰连：“全世界看清了中共真的失去了它的执政基础，完全被中国人民不信任。大家可以看到一个事件一出来，很快的就是质疑声。尤其是最近发生的薄熙来这个事件，把百姓对中共的唾弃以及不信任推向了最顶点。”
张杰连指出，中共背后是一个非常邪恶的独裁专制，用一套党文化来愚民和对民众洗脑，扼杀中华五千年传统和文化。一个民族失去了文化和传统，它就失去了生存的根，所以中共的运作机制是毁灭民族的，中共体制内的人也是这种机制的牺牲品。
而旅美的“中国和平民主联盟”主席、“中国民主大学”校长唐柏桥认为，现在世界上包括中共体制内越来越多的学者达成的共识是，中共再不放弃这个极权的统治，它崩溃起来的后果比前苏联还要严重。
美“中国和平民主联盟”主席唐柏桥：“实际上只有一条出路了，就是放弃这个一党专制，然后重新跟国际社会，跟民间接轨，实行民主制度。我估计两年之内18大开完以后，如果他们没有动作的话，不向全国人民承诺放弃一党专制，我估计它就会被人民推翻，国际社会也不允许它们现在这样子胡作非为下去。”
唐柏桥表示，如果中共主动放弃极权专制，虽然这个体制和政权完了，但，那些像前苏联戈尔巴乔夫，或者叶利钦那样的个人，还能够自救，他们将来在政治舞台上还可以扮演角色，但是，如果他们不放弃，面对人民革命时，他们就是罪人。
文章还指出，中共党员超过八千万，大多数人入党是为了利用它提供的金钱利益，他们本身已经成为一个跟中国社会脱节的特定利益集团。中共应该明白，当遭遇政权危机的时候，他们会像苏共的几百万党员一样注定要叛逃，苏联的命运等待着中国共产党。
采访/陈汉 编辑/宋风 后制/王明宇
US Media: Soviet-Style Collapse Awaits Totalitarian CCP
In the past six months, the Bo Xilai scandal endangered the
leadership transition of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Since then the public want to know: How long can the CCP regime be sustained?
A commentary published by “The Diplomat” magazine
said that if the CCP does not give up its totalitarian rule immediately,
and allow transition into democratic governance,
a Soviet-style collapse is its only future.
On October 1, ‘The Diplomat’ published an article,
entitled “Is China’s Communist Party Doomed?”
It mentioned the CCP’s announcement
of convening its 18th congress on November 8.
It said, “The party’s top leaders seemed to have agreed
on what to do with the disgraced former Chongqing
party boss Bo Xilai and on whom to promote into the
Politburo and its more powerful standing committee.”
“China’s ruling elite will do their best in the next few months
to project an image of unity and self-confidence…
convince the rest of world that the next generation of leaders
is capable of maintaining the party’s political monopoly.”
That is, unfortunately, a tough sell.
The article said, “Confidence in the party’s internal cohesion
and leadership has already been shaken by the Bo affair,
endemic corruption, stagnation of reform in the last decade,
a slowing economy, deteriorating relations with neighbors
and the United States, and growing social unrest.”
“Anyone who is unconvinced of this point should take
a look at Chinese Weibo (or microblogs) to get a sense of what ordinary Chinese think of their government.”
The article’s author is Minxin Pei, a professor on governance
at the California-based Claremont McKenna College.
Pei pointed out that the one-party regime has two paths:
1. “The Soviet route to certain self-destruction.”
2. “Taiwan-Mexican route to self-renewal and transformation.”
Pei wrote, “it is a totalitarian party, not an authoritarian party.”
“The CCP controls the military, the judiciary, the bureaucracy,
and the economy to a far greater extent than the Kuomintang and the Revolutionary Institutional Party of Mexico did.”
“Extricating a totalitarian party from a state is far more difficult.”
The article said that the world’s most durable
one-party regime was the 74 years of the Communist Party of the former Soviet Union.
“Having governed China for 63 years, … the CCP also ages”.
“Without taking this intermediate step immediately,
i.e. ‘the de-totalitarianization’ and ‘the transformation’, the
CCP may find that a Soviet-style collapse is its only future.”
Critic Zhang Jielian: “The whole world has
seen that the CCP’s ruling legitimacy has gone.
It has been completely distrusted by the Chinese people.
For example, once an event erupted, the people responded
by raising doubts. The Bo Xilai incident is a typical one.
It has driven the Chinese civilians’ spurning
and distrusting the CCP to its farthest point.”
Zhang Jielian comments that the CCP is running
based on a very evil autocratic system.
It uses its “Party culture” to brainwash the Chinese, and
has wiped out 5,000-year’s of traditional Chinese culture.
For a nation, losing its culture and traditions
amounts to losing its root of survival.
Thus, the CCP’s operating mechanism
was designed to destroy the Chinese nation.
People within the CCP ruling system are also
victims to its mechanism, Zhang Jielian thinks.
Tang Baiqiao, Chairman of China Peace & Democracy
Federation, reveals that
a consensus has been reached among the global scholars,
including those inside the CCP.
He says these scholars believe that the totalitarian
CCP will face a more serious collapse than the former Soviet Union Communist regime.
Tang Baiqiao: “In fact there’s only one way out for it, to give
up dictatorship, and introduce a democratic government.
I estimate that we’ll see it being overthrown within two years
after its 18th congress, if it still walks it’s the old path.
In reality, the international community
won’t continue to tolerate its criminal actions.”
Tang Baiqiao says that if the CCP leaders proactively give up
its totalitarian rule, it will help end the system and the regime.
And these leaders will gain a chance for self-renewal,
like Mikhail Gorbachev or Boris Yeltsin did.
They can still play an active role
in China’s future political arena.
However, if they still hold on to totalitarianism, they
will become sinners in the face of the people’s revolution.
In his article, Minxin Pei wrote that the CCP “may have
over 80 million members, but most of them join the party to exploit the pecuniary benefits it provides.”
“They themselves have become a special interest
group disconnected from Chinese society.”
Pei predicts, “the CCP should know that,
like the millions of the members of the former Soviet
Communist Party (CPSU), … when the CPSU fell,
there was not a single instance of loyalty.
Party members did not come to the defense
of the regime, and such a fate awaits the CCP.”
