【新唐人2012年9月26日讯】最近中国官媒爆出薄熙来打王立军耳光后，引起外界议论，人们开玩笑说：“那是一记导致薄熙来下台的耳光”，如果没有那记耳光导致王立军出逃美领馆，薄熙来有可能跻身政治局常委，将中国带进又一次“文革”的深渊。不过，有人针对这种说法，从6方面阐述了薄熙来倒台的必然性。
中国政情分析人士牛泪撰写了《薄熙来必然倒台的六个理由》。他从胡温对薄熙来的态度、和习近平对薄熙来的态度、以及其他政治局常委对薄熙来的态度等6个方面，分析了薄熙来从上到下失去支持及倒台的必然性。
曾经在大陆教授历史学的旅美民主人士刘因全认为，牛泪的分析很有道理。他说，薄熙来仗着“红二代”的所谓优势，养成了趾高气扬的性格，这是他敢于打王立军耳光的心理基础，也是招致他倒台的重要原因。
原大陆历史学教授刘因全：“因为薄熙来是太子党出身，他非常非常狂妄，他认为这个江山是他老子打下来的，理所当然的应该接老子的班，应该掌权，在这种心理的支配下，他不把平民出身的官员放在眼里，甚至认为他们是我们的家奴 。”
牛泪指出，薄熙来被“明升暗降”贬到重庆，就表明他在胡面前是个不受欢迎的人物。对于薄熙来在重庆的“唱红打黑”，温家宝提出过要防止“封建残余和文革遗毒”的警告。
刘因全也认为，胡锦涛和温家宝的父亲深受文革的迫害，必定“不会提拔”喜欢血腥文革的薄熙来。
据牛泪分析，习近平和薄熙来是中共“双保险”接班安排下，所谓“备胎制”的产物，只要有一个上位，另一个必定废除，因此习近平也不会容下薄熙来。
刘因全说，习近平和薄熙来除了政治上的竞争关系外，习近平的爸爸习仲勋，和薄熙来的爸爸薄一波本来也是仇家，习仲勋因支持胡耀邦而受到薄一波的打击。
刘因全：“他们的老子就是斗的你死我活的，他们的儿子自然对他们老子斗的你死我活的这件事情是记忆犹新的，当时他们已经是成年人了。两个人的老子当时就不是一派的，习仲勋为人比较好，是开明派的代表人物，薄一波是典型势利小人，两个人老子就不是一路货，他们的儿子怎么会完全一致呢？斗争是必然的。”
牛泪认为，在政治局常委中，除了排名老九的周永康，其他未必都是薄的铁杆盟友。而在中共退下来的政治老人中，除了江泽民，没有支持薄熙来的。
刘因全：“有一些别有用心的人，像江泽民他是因为法轮功问题，薄熙来一直紧跟他嘛。除非这些人他们会对薄熙来赏识，会提拔。薄熙来在其他政治局里面也没有人缘，他这种作风，他谁都瞧不起，连胡温都不放在眼里，他这种心态，一定在其他政治局委员里留下很恶劣的印象。”
刘因全表示，薄熙来利用唱红，来向红二代暗示“把权力拿下来”，太子党们“为对付平民出身的官员”，可能暂时的抱团，但在争夺席位时就会打得不可开交。
牛泪也指出，薄熙来利用民众对贪污腐化和分配不公等社会问题的不满，在唱红打黑中满足了一部分人的心理诉求。但绝大部分人能认清薄熙来在重庆当“土皇帝”，践踏法治精神和程序的极权统治。
刘因全：“绝大多数的老百姓都受尽了共产党的这种折磨，受尽了毛泽东的这种迫害，薄熙来再去举起毛泽东那个破旗来，在那里摇旗呐喊，怎么能得到他们的拥戴呢？不可能嘛，上层有些人看到民意这样，也不会支持薄熙来。”
刘因全规劝下一届执政者们：记住“水可载舟，亦可覆舟”。一定要倾听人民的声音，顺应民意，来进行政治体制改革，还政于民。
采访编辑/刘惠 后制/王明宇
The Downfall of Bo Xilai: Accidental or Inevitable?
Recently, the CCP official media broke word that Bo Xilai
slapped Wang Lijun in the face, which elicited much discussion.
People joked: “Bo Xilai stepped down with a slap in the face.”
Without the slap, Wang Lijun may not have fled to the United
States Consulate, and Bo Xilai may have become one
of the Politburo Standing Committee members, which could
have brought another culture revolution to China.
However, according to this argument, somebody listed six
reasons for the inevitability of the Bo Xilai’s downfall.
Niu Lei, a China political analyst, wrote an article titled,
“Six reasons for the inevitability of Bo Xilai’s downfall.”
After analyzing Hu – Wen’s attitude toward Bo,
Xi Jinping’s attitude towards Bo, and other Politburo Standing
Committee members’ attitudes towards Bo, he believes that
Bo Xilai’s loss of support and step down was inevitable.
U. S. democrat Liu Yinquan, who once taught history
in Mainland China, thinks Niu Lei’s analysis makes sense.
He commented that Bo Xilai relied on the advantage
of the so-called “second generation of red” and developed a character of arrogance.
It is his psychological foundation to slap Wang Lijun’s face
and the reason for his downfall.
Liu Yinquan, former history professor in mainland: “Bo Xilai
is one of the Princelings and he is very presumptuous.
He believes that his father beat down the country and
certainly he should take the position of his father.
Under this kind of psychological domination, he looked down
on officials with civilian backgrounds and even thought of them as his slaves.”
Niulei pointed out that Bo Xilai’s “banishment” to Chongqing
means he is an unpopular figure before Hu Jintao.
Due to Bo’s “Red Songs, Strike Black” movement in Chongqing,
Wen Jiabao put forward a warning about preventing another cultural revolution.
Liu Yinquan thinks both the fathers of Hu Jintao and Wen
Jiabao felt the persecution of the Cultural Revolution.
Therefore, they would not promote Bo Xilai,
who is partial to the bloody cultural revolution.
According to the analysis of Niu Lei, both Xi Jinping and Bo
Xilai belong to the “double insurance” succession arrangements of the so-called “spare tire” system of the CCP.
As long as there is a higher-level , the other must be repealed.
Therefore, Xi Jinping would not have gotten along well with Bo Xilai.
Liu Yinquan said that in addition to the political competition
between Xi Jinping and Bo Xilai, Xi Zhongxun, Xi Jinping’s
father, and Bo Yibo, father of Bo Xilai are also mutual enemies.
Xi Zhongxun was hit by Bo Yibo due to his support of Hu Yaobang.
Liu Yinquan: “Their fathers fought against each other a lot,
and both Xi Jinping and Bo Xilai must remember the fights, as they were adults at that time.
Their fathers are not in the same group,
they are totally different.
Xi Zhongxun is a better man and can be seen
as the representative of the liberals.
And Bo Yibo is a typical snob. So how could their sons
get along well? They must fight.”
Niulei thinks that besides Zhou Yongkang, other members
in the Politburo Standing Committee are not necessarily supposed to be Bo Xilai’s loyal allies.
Liu Yinquan: “Some people with ulterior motives, for example,
Jiang Zemin, wanted to promote Bo Xilai due to his following Jiang’s order to persecute Falun Gong.
Otherwise Bo Xilai followed repressive policies
and was not popular in the Politburo.
Due to his style, he looked down on everyone including
Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao,
and this state of mind must leave a very bad impression
on other Politburo members.”
Liu Yinquan said that Bo Xilai’s use of the “red songs”
movement to imply the second red generation to win power.
The Princelings may temporarily get together to deal with
the officials with civilian background’s but they must fight for seats.
Niulei pointed, Bo Xilai just used public dissatisfaction
with social problems such as corruption and unfair
distribution to his advantage and he satisfied some people
in the “Red Songs, Strike Black” movement.
But most people recognized that Bo wanted to be the Tyrant
of Chongqing, and his movement was a kind of totalitarianism trampling the rule of law.
Liu Yinquan: “Most people have suffered tremendously
at the hands of the CCP and Mao Zedong.
Therefore, how could Bo Xilai succeed by taking Mao Zedong
as a flag? No way.
Some upper people are aware of the public opinion and
will not support Bo.”
Liu’s advice for the next session of rulers is to remember
that “water can carry a boat, and can also capsize it.”
They must listen to the people and conduct political reform
to give the government back to the people.
