【新唐人2012年9月1日讯】继广东省委书记汪洋强调“党纪”之后，中共中组部部长李源潮紧跟着重申胡锦涛“党性”话题，而他们两人，果然出现在最近曝光的一份十八大人事布局的“七常委”名单中。自从薄熙来事件，揭开中共牌面下暗潮汹涌的争斗内幕之后，究竟下一届领导班子出台后，中共政坛又将如何演变？下面请看专家的分析。
广东省委书记汪洋公开强调加强“党性”修养，强化纪律观念，指称政治纪律是“紧箍咒”、是“高压线”的话刚刚落下；中组部部长李源潮也重申胡锦涛“建设模范部门、打造过硬队伍”的要求，他同时强调“讲党性、重品行、做表率”。外界认为他们两人，与胡锦涛保持一致，并及时“迎合”、“靠拢”了习近平24号“党建”问题的谈话。
果然，在31号被曝光的十八大人事布局名单中，李源潮任副国家主席﹔汪洋任中央纪委书记，两人双双上榜。
中共下一届常委名单，不断为外界猜测﹔如今，十八大即将召开，常委的布局也呼之欲出。如果曝光的名单不假，那么，李克强，汪洋和李源潮这三人的“政治调性”，被认为一致支持胡温;而薄熙来、周永康等“血债帮”江系人马，外界则认为已难翻身。那么，第五代领导班子上马之后，被认为走中间路线的习近平，将来会抱“团”吗？
对此，时事评论家横河指出，中国整个经济、政治、社会的矛盾，已处于临界点，一旦爆发，政权就垮﹔中共政权如果再搞政治斗争，就垮的更快。
时事评论家横河：“所以，选下一代领导人又是按照中共的规矩，就是选自己派系的或者是听自己话的，或者是一直跟自己工作过的，这就是所谓团派的来历。那么，这样选择的人，不可能有很大的魄力。他怎么敢动这个系统呢﹔他们最终是看着中共垮。”
横河分析，中共这些所谓领导人派系，可以随时调整﹔因为，每个人有各自的利益集团和个人利益。
横河：“但是，有一个派系就是当时江泽民传下来的一个‘帮派’，是为了维护他们自己集团的利益，和不被清算才组建起来的。再到下一代呢，如果没有一个重大的血案，没有重大的人权侵犯的大案，那么，他们不大可能会抱成团，来防止自己和他们的后代家属不被清算。因为在最高领导层已经达成协定，到政治局常委这一级一般都不清算了。”
时政观察人士华颇观察指出，习近平非常隐晦自己的观点。因此，一切谜底要等他上台揭晓。
时政观察人士华颇：“他不可能公开阐明自己的观点，和组织自己的班底，这是中国政治文化的一个传统。这个人的真正面目，只有他上台之后才能显现出来。7.23胡锦涛的讲话，是为将来定了调子，就是科学发展观部分，他变相的堵死了习近平将来有产生自己东西的路子。”
华颇分析，胡锦涛为保证自己的思想延续，也相应的在人事布局上做了一个调整，指定自己的衣钵传人，进一步清洗了江派的力量。
华颇：“所以，将来习怎么走，是不是胡锦涛这个科学发展观；如果习是真心拥护，真心的买账，问题不大﹔如果习另有自己的打算，我想中国政坛将来还会产生一些变动。问题是，中国现代的社会矛盾冲突非常严重。这个时候，习一上来就要办一些实实在在的事情，来收取民心。”
不过，横河指出，中共十八大班底是七人或九人、人事如何布局，都解决不了中国目前的政治问题。唯一的可能就是，其中有人敢于学“戈尔巴乔夫”，登高一呼解体中共，这是一个最好的选择。
采访编辑/梁欣 后制/孙宁
Will New CCP Top Leadership Follow Hu Jintao’s Line?
Guangdong Party Chief Wang Yang has stressed
the need to enforce Party discipline.
Li Yuanchao, Central Organization Department
Minister of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) later reaffirmed Hu Jintao’s political requirement.
Both Wang and Li appeared on a list of seven names
of members of the CCP Politburo Standing Committee.
The list was recently leaked unofficially.
In the face of intensified infighting, what direction will
the CCP regime head in with its new top leadership team?
Let’s see what the experts can tell us.
Wang Yang has publicly emphasized to CCP
members the need to cultivate the “Party spirit”.
There is a need to strengthen political discipline.
Li Yuanchao restated Hu Jintao’s speech, “to built up
exemplary departments and qualified party member teams”.
Li Yuanchao highlighted the need “to be Party-spirit minded,
to be well-behaved and to set a good example”.
Observers think that both Li and Wang
are following the line of Hu Jintao.
Wang and Li’s remarks were deemed timely
for “catering" and “approaching" Xi Jinping’s recent speech on Party construction.
The list of names of the top CCP leadership team
for the 18th Party Congress was exposed on August 31.
Li Yuanchao appeared on the list as Vice President.
Wang Yang appeared as Chief of the Central
Discipline Inspection Commission.
Speculations on the new generation
of the CCP top leadership continues.
As the 18th Party Congress is approaching, Li Keqiang,
Wang Yang and Li Yuanchao have political minds in common
and are all considered to be on Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao’s side.
It is thought that the blood-debt faction, under Jiang Zemin’s
clique, and represented by Bo Xilai and Zhou Yongkang, will find it difficult to rise to power again.
Will Xi Jinping, after taking office, be united with these three?
Critic Heng He observed that the clashes existing in China’s
economy, politics and society have arrived at a tipping point.
Once it explodes, the CCP regime will collapse.
A quicker demise would be seen if the regime
continues with its political struggle, says Heng He.
Heng He: “Following CCP customs, the incumbent leader
usually picks his successor from his own faction,
or the person follows his words or his minor.
So those selected are unlikely to have unusual capabilities.
How will he dare to change this systems operation?
So they will end up witnessing the CCP’s collapse."
Heng He says that the CCP factions
can be adjusted when needed.
This is because the top CCP leaders are linked to their own
interest groups, and have their own individual interests.
Heng He: “But a faction, led by Jiang Zemin,
was established to safeguard their own group interests and to escape being punished by law.
The faction members possibly wouldn’t be united
if it was not for having committed serious massacres, and major human rights violations.
In reality, the CCP top leadership has come to terms
with the fact that the Politburo Standing Committee leaders are exempt from punishment."
Political observer Hua Po noticed that Xi Jinping
has scarcely expressed his point of view.
All the answers will only be unveiled after he takes office.
Hua Po: “He cannot openly clarify his own point of view
and select his own team.
This is a tradition observed in CCP politics.
His true colors won’t be shown until he takes office.
Hu Jintao’s “7.23-talk” sets the tone for the next leadership.
That is, the concept of scientific development.
Hu has indirectly blocked the possibility for Xi Jinping
to follow his own idea in the future.”
Hua Po analyzes that Hu Jintao wants to keep his own
ideology continuing by appointing his own successors.
Hu’s arrangement of personnel has further
reduced the power of Jiang’s faction.
Hua Po: “So let’s wait and see what Xi Jinping will do.
Will it be Hu Jintao’s scientific development concept, or not?
If Xi really follows Hu, there won’t be big problems.
If Xi has his own plans, I expect further
changes will occur in China’s politics.
The current issue in China is very sharp
social conflicts over various social factors.
On this point, once Xi Jinping comes to office, he is expected
to do some real things to gain the people’s support."
Heng He points out that whether it’s down-sizing of the CCP
Politburo Standing Committee or appointing new personnel,
this cannot truly solve the current political problems in China.
Heng He suggests that the only and the best way out
is to emulate the actions of Mikhail Gorbachev.
That is, to publicly announce the disintegration of the CCP.
