【新唐人2012年8月29日讯】目前，中共的18大正紧锣密鼓的准备着，“北戴河会议”后再次传出中共常委由9人变为7人，在中共政坛动荡和政权风雨飘摇的时刻，中共红二代——薄熙来的命运，已成为外界关注的焦点。日前有亲近中国的日本媒体披露，中共在“北戴河会议”上，已经拟定开除薄熙来党籍，取消他的人大代表资格，薄熙来有可能被追究刑事责任。外界推测，薄熙来应该会被处以死刑，否则，会给中共的现行领导和下界核心以及中国人留下后患。
中国共产党章程第38条中规定，严重触犯刑律的党员必须开除党籍。据日本《朝日新闻》报导，“北戴河会议”除了拟定将开除薄熙来党籍，还围绕“人大代表有不被逮捕的特权”讨论，打算取消薄熙来的人大代表资格，薄熙来有可能被追究刑事责任。
北京时政观察人士华颇认为，薄熙来一定会被处以死刑，他说中共现在的局势和76年非常相似，如果不置薄熙来于死地，他就会像当年的邓小平一样，习近平就会是第二个华国锋。
北京时政观察人士华颇：“只开除党籍，我看不可能，而且薄熙来的下场会非常非常惨。不管胡温、习也好，绝不能给薄熙来东山再起的机会，不把他置于死地的话，薄熙来这些左派的人士也是手毒心狠的，如果他要是起来的话，胡温的下场非常惨，因为胡温与薄熙来的关系，还不如毛泽东和邓小平的关系。”
时政评论家唐柏桥认为，开除薄熙来的党籍和取消他人大代表资格，是为追究刑事责任铺路。他说，薄熙来至少应该处以死刑，不过在和江派争夺18大席位的博弈中，胡温可能在处理薄熙来的问题时会做出一些让步。
时政评论家唐柏桥：“按道理说他应该追究他很多的责任，比如说贪污腐败、行贿受贿、然后 滥用职权、私设酷刑、甚至活摘器官的一些事情、人体展的事情，它们不会追究，中共除非倒台了，不倒台它不会追究。”
唐柏桥指出，如果不果断处死薄熙来，遭殃的不只是胡温一派，还会殃及百姓，他说薄熙来只要还有一口气就会伺机反扑，胡温家族会比江青更惨。
唐柏桥：“中国民众对这个政权更不会有信心，同时邪恶它也没有得到有效的惩治，然后这种公安政法系统权力更加嚣张，因为他们觉得他们的后台很硬的，可以万无一失，更胡作非为，活摘器官也好、人体展也好、酷刑也好、对付高智晟也好，公安就想…原来以为他要倒台了，结果发现现在没有，又原形毕露，那中国人又要遭殃了。”
据《朝日新闻》分析，开除薄熙来党籍，是力挺薄熙来的前国家主席江泽民与胡锦涛之间较量的结果，不过看来江泽民完全没法显示他的存在感了，占据优势的胡派，在调整新的最高领导层人选上，将保持强大的影响力。报导指称，胡锦涛力争将9人政治局常委削减到7人，胡温人马将占绝对优势。
7月12号，华颇对18大“入常人选”作过预测，现在传出的名单和他的预测不相上下。华颇表示，江泽民利益集团是人民期待胡温清算的对像，“入常”的概率不会太大。他说，当时他估计俞正声当选概率只有40%。
华颇：“俞正声的事，大家觉得他入常是属于一种调和，我觉得将来这个7常委，给这种调和性的人物入常的概率倒是不大，而且他俞正声还是属于红二代这些人，他不可能把这些人太多的塞入常委，如果真的要这么多的话，就跟清末的皇宗内阁一样。”
华颇还表示，胡温在任时，江泽民安排的人马班底，使得胡温处处受阻，无所作为，人们对日益扩大的贫富之差心怀怨气，现在薄熙来死党可能反过来利用这点给胡温施加压力。
采访编辑/刘惠 后制/钟元
Bo Xilai Subject to Expulsion and the Death Penalty?
The 18th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
is being prepared as high profile.
The Party’s Politburo Standing Committee reportedly
once again cut to seven seats from the previous nine.
During the political storm, how the CCP regime will handle
Bo Xilai’s case has been closely followed by the world.
Japan’s pro-CCP media revealed that the Beidaihe meeting
intends to expel Bo who is likely to be criminally punished.
Analysts speculate that Bo may face the death penalty.
Otherwise, he would be a threat to the incumbent and
oncoming CCP top leadership and to the Chinese people.
The CCP’s Party Constitution stipulates that Party members
who seriously violate criminal law be expelled from the Party.
Japan’s Asahi Shimbun reported that the Beidaihe meeting
plans to expel Bo Xilai and remove his status of deputy to the CCP’s National People’s Congress.
The Japanese media expected that
Bo might be held criminally liable.
Beijing-based political observer, Hua Po, thinks that
Bo Xilai will definitely be sentenced to death.
He said that China is now in a political situation
very similar to that was in 1976.
If Bo was not purged, he would become the 2nd Deng
Xiaoping. Xi Jinping would become the 2nd Hua Guofeng.
Hua Po: “I don’t believe they’ll only expel Bo.
I think Bo Xilai will end up very, very miserable.
For Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao or Xi Jinping,
all three shouldn’t leave Bo any chance to rise again.
The leftists under Bo are also very wicked and cruel.
If Bo is not killed and later stages a comeback,
Hu and Wen would face a very miserable end.
The relationship between Hu & Wen and Bo is not as good
as that between Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping."
Critic Tang Baiqiao comments that the move to expel Bo and
to remove his deputy eligibility is intended to give Bo criminal sanctions on the next step.
Tang Baiqiao says that Bo should
at least be given death penalty.
Tang Baiqiao estimates that Hu & Wen may yield to an extent
in handling Bo’s case.
This is to contend for the power bargaining at the 18th Congress
with Jiang Zemin’s faction.
Tang Baiqiao: “Naturally, Hu Jintao should have investigated
Bo’s many crimes.
These range from corruption, bribery, abuse of power, secret
tortures and the involvement of live organ harvesting and sale of human bodies.
I don’t believe the CCP will investigate and punish Bo for his
roles in the live organ harvesting and human body sales.”
Tang Baiqiao said if Bo cannot be decidedly purged, the
victims in the near future will not only include the factions of Hu & Wen, but also Chinese civilians.
Tang remarked that Bo will surely await his chance
as long as he is alive.
In that case, the families of Hu & Wen would be
subject to more dire suffering.
Tang Baiqiao: “The Chinese public won’t trust this regime
any more. But the evil force hasn’t been effectively punished.
And the police system, the Political & Legislative Affair sector
will stray into more arrogance.
This is because they know they have very strong backing,
that will encourage them to commit more and greater evils.
Like live organ harvesting, human body exhibits, tortures,
the suppressing of Gao Zhisheng, and so on.
At that time, the Chinese people will face more disasters."
The Asahi Shimbun said Bo Xilai’s expulsion is a result of
the contest between Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao.
Now it looks that Jiang has completely lost the capability of
showing his existence.
Hu’s faction has held advantages, will show great impact
by adjusting the CCP top leader teams.
The commentary stated that Hu Jintao tried to cut from nine
seats to seven seats in the Politburo Standing Committee.
The factions of Hu & Wen will reign supreme, according to
Japanese media.
This July, Hua Po predicted a list of candidates for
the CCP Politburo Standing Committee.
His forecast is nearly equal to the name list that
has been unofficially leaked.
Hua Po says the Chinese publics expect Hu& Wen to
legally punish the interest groups under Jiang Zemin.
So Jiang’s men see little chance to be put on the name list.
Hua Po estimates that Yu Zhengsheng only has
a probability of 40% to enter the top leader group.
Hua Po: “The public view Yu Zhengsheng’s promotion to
the Politburo Standing Committee as a concession.
But I don’t think he has such an opportunity as it has only
seven seats and the quota is too limited.
Yu Zhengsheng is the 2nd generation of the revolutionary
cadres.
If people like him are all put into the top leader team, that
would become the Royal Cabinet of the late Qing Dynasty."
Hua Po said, Jiang Zemin’s top-level leadership arrangement
has blocked the way of Hu & Wen.
The political inaction of Hu & Wen and the popular discontent
with the widening rich-poor gap may be used by Bo Xilai’s buddies to pressure Hu & Wen, Hua Po analyzed.
