【新唐人2012年8月23日讯】香港媒体21号发表文章，指出十八大前的中国正面临“内忧外患”，而中国的媒体却有意不提。但是评论家指出，不仅是媒体，大陆官方也不敢面对这些年执政造成的结果，只能抱着侥幸心理，抱着“炸弹”玩击鼓传花，而体制内官员都在逃离这艘即将沈没的大船。
香港《南华早报》的文章说，大陆现正面临内忧外患，政治、外交、经济和社会各方面都出现许多不明朗因素，包括中日钓鱼岛主权纠纷、内地经济放缓，以及席卷全国的动荡和示威风潮。但是在十八大前，大陆媒体加紧歌功颂德，却有意不提所面对的危机。
时事评论家横河指出，这是因为，目前中国社会矛盾已经累积到达了顶点，中共无法解决它执政这些年造成的结果。
时事评论家横河：“在这个时候，它已经不可能进行任何改动了。它动一动，就会垮。这就是为什么，王立军、薄熙来事件出来以后，它只是想维持现状的来解决。它根本就不敢动，一动它就垮掉了。”
临近十八大，体制内外没有人不期待变革。中共一方面加紧控制言论，加强维稳；另一方面，又企图通过领导层换届，提升人民对自己的希望和信心，把政权“击鼓传花”传下去，因此放出“十八大代表透明、公开选出”、“新领导班子令人‘耳目一新’”、“政治体制改革”等等消息。
横河指出，之前温家宝虽然多次提到政改，但在中共现在的体制下，任何政治体制改革的方案都是无法贯彻的，因为动任何一步，都是损害既得利益集团的利益。
横河：“政治体制要变化的，它不是说在这个结构里面进行修正，而是说体制要改，就是开放党禁、报禁、言论自由、信息自由、信仰自由、出版自由、组党自由，这些一自由，中共马上就垮掉了，所以它只能击鼓传花，一直到炸弹爆炸为止。”
政论家、《北京之春》杂志主编胡平则认为，如果在89年“六四”时，当局愿意政改，也许还可能有部分中共官员被民选选上，但现在的当局没有魄力，也没有意愿去进行政治体制改革。
政论家胡平：“现在整个中共集团从上到下腐败到这个地步，你过去欠人民的债那都不用说了，你包括‘六四’，这之后又有‘法轮功’，然后又对维权，对各方面人士的打压，所以你可以想一下，在这个时候如果实行政治开放，那共产党相当一批官员，且不说他们政治上的罪恶，首先经济上的贪污腐败，被清算就是在所难免的。”
如果政治体制改革只是“海市蜃楼”，“画饼充饥”，那中共要怎么解决目前的“内忧外患”呢？胡平认为，现在的中共当局抱着一种侥幸心理，打算继续靠着政治上的高压，将政权这么维持下去。
胡平：“所以它就还是继续会打主意就是，一边靠着政治上的高压这么维持下去，因为它毕竟觉得中国这么大，你各种反对力量，很难是同时发生，所以它就可以分别去对付。这种做法最后的结果，不光是对中国，对这个国家，对人民是一个灾难，另外呢，也使它共产党这个统治集团更不能够得到善终。”
横河则指出，十八大只是中共高层内部的权力分配而已，分配的早晚对于整个中国社会发展的进程一点影响都没有。而中共体制内的官员已经看到“动则亡党，不动也亡党”的结果，因此能做的就是自己做裸官、准备往外逃或者已经往外逃了，现在整个统治集团都在做这件事情。
采访/易如 编辑/尚燕 后制/葛雷
CCP Can Only “Pass The Bomb"
Hong Kong media published an article that China is facing
both internal and external crises before the 18th Congress,
but the Chinese media do not mention anything about this.
Experts think, not only the media, but the government too
dares not face the consequences of their many years of rule.
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) can only’pass the bomb’
to each other, they cannot escape the sinking ship.
Hong Kong’South China Morning Post’ said on August 21,
that China is facing both internal and external difficulties.
And that many negative factors appear in politics,
diplomacy, economy and society, etc.
Like Diaoyu Island’s dispute, China’s economy slowdown,
and the protests throughout the country.
Yet, before the 18th Congress, the mainland media steps up
singing the old praises and mentions nothing about the crises.
Commentator Heng He thinks the reason is the accumulated
contradictions in the Chinese society from the CCP’s ruling.
Heng He: “Now, it (CCP) has no room to move anymore.
If it moves a little, it will collapse.
Thus after Wang Lijun’ and Bo Xilai’s incidents it only tries
to maintain the current situation, while solving the problem.
It dares not move, if it moves, it will collapse."
The time of CCP’s 18th Congress is approaching, thus inside
and outside the system nobody is expecting a change.
On one hand the CCP continuously controls
the public speech and focuses on maintaining stability.
On the other it tries to lift people’s hopes and confidence
in the new leaders’election, as to pass down the regime.
Thus they talk about “18th Congress representatives elected
transparently and publicly," “the new leadership’s new look," “political reform," etc.
Heng He pointed out that Wen Jiabao had mentioned
about political reform many times before.
However, under the CCP no political reform will work,
as any move will harm the benefits of its interests groups.
Heng He: “A new political system means change;
it is not about correcting internally the system and structure.
It is to change the political system through removing CCP’s
dogmas and control over media, speech, beliefs, etc.
This means the CCP will collapse,
thus it can only ‘pass the bomb’ until it explodes."
Political commentator and editor-in-chief of’Beijing Spring’
magazine, Hu Ping shared his views on the issue too.
Hu thinks June 4’89 event was a chance for political reform,
and some CCP officials could’ve been elected by the public.
But now the authorities neither have the courage,
nor the willingness to carry out a political system’reform.
Hu Ping: “Now the CCP as a group, from top to bottom are
corrupted to this point, not to mention the past debts it owes to the people, including the June 4th,
After which came the Falun Gong’s persecution,
then the suppression of the human rights activists, etc..
So, if they open the system, a large number of CCP officials,
will be liquidated, considering their economic corruption, not to mention their political sins."
If the political reform is just an illusion, how can the CCP
solve both current difficulties, internal and external?
Hu Ping believes, now the CCP hopes for luck, and intends
to continue relying on suppression to maintain the regime.
Hu Ping: “It (CCP) will continue to rely on high-suppression
of the people to maintain its’ regime status.
It believes China is a big country, all opposition forces can’t
rise simultaneously, so CCP can handle them individually.
The consequences of this would be disasters for the country
and the people, plus a bad end for the CCP."
Heng He believes the 18th Congress is just a re-distribution
of power within the CCP, it will not affect the entire process of China’s development.
The officials have seen that with or without making a move,
this party is coming to an end.
Thus their only option seems to be the ‘naked’official,
where they send their wealth and families overseas, and are on a ‘stand by’ to flee themselves too.
CCP officials have already been doing this for a while,
and now this trend is spreading to the entire ruling party.
