【新唐人2012年8月18日讯】中共总理温家宝8月14号现身浙江，胡锦涛16号也在北京露面。外界认为，确定18大人事安排的“北戴河会议”已经结束，而“会期短”，是胡锦涛有意弱化的结果。不过，学者认为，今年北戴河会议会期短，是因为薄王事件导致习近平与胡温联盟，他们掌握了主导权后使得事情简化。但这种黑社会性质的暗箱操作，对中国的发展和对老百姓却是不利的。
中共高层一直有在北戴河“边度暑假边举行重要会议”的惯例，虽然它不是制度性的会议，但非常重要，很多次涉及中共重要人事的安排，就是在北戴河会议上确定的。在某种意义上，它的重要性超越了“中全会”和“全代会”。
据查证，自8月1号至13号，中共中央高层就很少在媒体上露面，外界纷纷猜测是由于中共高层正在进行“北戴河会议”，确定十八大领导层换届的最终细节，并决定如何对原重庆市委书记薄熙来以及他所引发的政治丑闻做出结论。
直到8月14号，温家宝才现身浙江调研经济情况，胡锦涛16号也在北京接见了哥斯达黎加总统。
时事评论员杰森认为，温家宝、胡锦涛的露面，说明“北戴河会议”已经结束，中共18大人事安排应该已经完毕，对薄熙来处理也定了调。今年的“北戴河会议”预期远比外界预计的时间短，是因为高层内部早就达成了协定，今年的会议其实只是走形式。
时事评论员杰森：“当薄熙来这个事情出来以后，中间有一段权力内部的斗争、均衡、妥协、达成协议这个过程。在这个过程中，其实已经把主要的权力站位都已经定好了，特别是谷开来这时候被审，其实已经把薄熙来未来反弹的可能性，也都打倒了。”
外界普遍认为，“北戴河会议”对所谓的中共“元老”来说更加重要，因为他们希望继续影响权力交接。所以，这次会议在还没有开始前，外界就有评论说，当代党内“元老”——江泽民等，将在会议上影响18大常委的人事安排，以及对薄熙来的处理。
日本《朝日新闻》英文版也报导说，薄熙来的父亲薄一波对江泽民跃身到权力巅峰功不可没，而薄熙来在1999年8月对视察的江泽民，不惜使用文革时期张贴“领导人大幅头像”的做法献媚，江泽民也对薄熙来的日后快速升迁起到了绝对作用。
可是，今年的“北戴河会议”全程才十天左右，《法新社》甚至评论，“北戴河会议”的重要性在现任最高领导人胡锦涛的统治下已经弱化。
时事评论员蓝述指出，外界普遍认为，因为中共各方利益集团之间的斗争错综复杂，预计今年中共第四代向第五代交接过程，需要比较长的时间，但是事实上相反。蓝述说，这并不是胡锦涛有意弱化的结果，完全是由于今年的“薄王事件”造成的。
时事评论员蓝述：“第一就是整个江系的力量受到了致命的打击，再加上江泽民本人的健康并不是很好，所以整个江系没有太多讨价还价的余地，第二方面，胡温在过去的大半年里面，成功掌握党内高层和军队的主导权；第三，由于薄王事件曝出来周永康和薄熙来之间有政变的计划，所以说，造成了习近平和胡温的全面结盟。”
蓝述认为，习近平和胡温结盟以后，整体上掌握了主导权，所以大的问题在会议上很快就定了。
不过，杰森认为，中共以这种黑社会化的权斗方式、通过暗箱操作，完成权力交替，并非正常的执政方式。他说，中共的存在，对于中国和中华民族就是危害。
采访/陈汉 编辑/宋风 后制/钟元
Weakening Beidaihe Meetings: Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao Control 18th National People’s Congress
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao appeared at Zhejiang on
August 14, and Hu Jintao appeared in Beijing on the 16.
Observers believe that the Beidaihe Meetings
have already ended.
The last short meetings are the result
of Hu Jintao’s intention to weaken it’s importance.
However, scholars believe Beidaihe meetings
are short this year because the Bo Xilai and Wang Lijun events lead to the alliance of Xi Jinping and Hu Jintao.
After these events, Xi and Hu gained leading power.
The nature of this mafia-like, shady operation
is very detrimental to Chinese people.
It is detrimental to the development of China.
High level Communist Party officials always have the habit
of holding important meetings at the prime summer retreat location at Beidaihe.
Although these meetings do not have
an administrative nature, they are important.
They involve arrangements of key CCP members.
In some senses, their importance surpasses that
of the Plenary Sessions and the National People’s Congress.
According to investigations, from August 1 to August 13,
high level CCP leaders rarely appeared on media.
Observers speculated that this was due to the fact
that the Beidaihe Meetings were in progress.
The final details of the 18th National People’s Congress
(NPC) leadership exchanges were being confirmed.
Conclusions relating to former Chongqing party
secretary Bo Xilai’s political scandal were also been made.
Wen Jiabao did not appear in Zhejiang to survey
its economic conditions until August 14.
Hu Jintao met with the Costa Rican president on August 16.
Current affairs commentator Jason Ma believes Wen Jiabao
and Hu Jintao’s appearances mean the Beidaihe meetings have already ended.
As for how to handle Bo Xilai,
a conclusion has also been reached.
This year’s Beidaihe meetings are shorter than predicted
by the outside world because high level members are there as a matter of formality.
Jason Ma: “After the Bo Xilai events broke, there was internal
power struggles in the middle during the entire process of balancing, compromising and reaching an agreement.
In reality, during this process, the main points of power
distribution had already been set.
This was especially so after having
Gu Kailai on trial at this time.
In reality, it has already impacted the possibility
of Bo Xilai rebounding in the future.”
The outside world widely believes the Beidaihe meetings
are more important to so-called CCP chief figures.
This is because they hope to continue
to influence exchange of power exchange.
Before the meetings started, outside commentators said that
chief leaders of this generation, such as Jiang Zemin,
will influence the arrangement of the 18th NPC personnel.
They will also influence the way Bo Xilai is dealt with.
The Asahi Shimbun reported that Bo Xilai’s father, Bo Yibo
had contributed greatly to Jiang Zemin’s rise to power.
The way Bo Xilai used large portraits in August 1999 to flatter
Jiang Zemin, as was done during the Cultural Revolution, have absolutely affected his later promotion.
However, this year’s Beidaihe meetings
only lasted a total of about ten days.
AFP News Agency even commented that the power
of the Beidaihe meetings have weakened under the current leadership of Hu Jintao’s rule.
Current affairs commentator Lan Shu points out that
the outside world widely believes that because of complicated struggles between various CCP factions,
it is predicted this year’s exchange will take longer.
In reality, it is the opposite.
Lan Shu says this is not because Hu Jintao
intentionally tried to weaken it’s importance.
It is entirely caused by the Bo-Wang affair.
Lan Shu: “First of all, the entire Jiang Zemin
faction has received a fatal blow.
On top of this, Jiang Zemin’s health is not very good, so the
entire Jiang faction does not have leeway to negotiate.
Secondly, in the past six months, Hu and Wen
were in control of the high level party and military leadership.
Thirdly, due to the exposure of the Bo-Wang affair,
and revealing the Zhou Yongkang and Bo Xilai coup plan,
it has created an all round alliance between Xi Jinping
and Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao.”
Lan Shu believes that after Xi Jingping and Hu-Wen
formed an alliance, they took the overall leadership.
Major issues were thus settled quickly at the meetings.
However, Jason Ma believes this type of mafia-like power
struggle method,
where power exchanges are achieved through
shady operations, are an abnormal governing style.
He says the existence of the CCP
endangers both China and its people.
