【新唐人2012年8月17日讯】中共国务院总理温家宝，已经离开十八大之前的重要会议——“北戴河会议”，8月14号现身浙江。分析指出，温家宝去浙江实际上是救火，解救浙江出现的经济危机，但是浙江的问题，实际上是中国整个经济问题的一个缩影，对于温家宝来说，也是一筹莫展，不会有什么好的所谓“良策”。
8月14号至15号，中共国务院总理温家宝到浙江省杭州、湖州、嘉兴等地，调研经济运行情况。在考察时温家宝强调说，“要清醒的看到，经济趋稳的基础还不牢固，经济困难可能还会持续一段时间。”
浙江是以中小民营企业为主的经济体系，因为有政府的支持，中国的私营经济在浙江最为活跃、发达。
但是，近来，大陆央行发出警告，要防范不良贷款规模上升，可能导致的金融系统性风险。据了解，今年（2012年）6月末，商业银行不良贷款余额4528亿元，比年初增加287亿元，呈现不良贷款余额增加的趋势，个别商业银行不良贷款率也开始上升。
此外，《财经》杂志也发表文章警告，6月末浙江温州市不良贷款余额181亿，第二波危机正在酝酿。
自去年9月以来，在温州形成的一场企业债务多米诺骨牌效应，在一年之后，虽然部分危局有所缓解，但是温州仍然受困于债务危机后遗症，更多隐患相继暴露出来。
旅美学者程晓农表示，浙江现在主要面临的最大麻烦就是金融危机，上一次中共利用银行，让企业向银行大量借钱，把08年以后的金融危机，减到了比较低的程度。
旅美学者程晓农：“实际上是种下了非常严重的祸根，其实去年这个时候，麻烦已经开始出来了，地方政府借了大量的钱以后，是还不掉的，企业借了这些钱以后，很多人也不是正常经营，而是拿去炒房子，炒其他的东西，去投机去了，现在房地产市场维持不下去了，那么很自然的企业就面临崩盘。”
据《腾讯财经》报导，自去年（2011年）4月江南皮革董事长黄鹤失踪以来，温州民企老板“跑路事件”愈演愈烈，已有近40名老板不知所踪。仅9月一个月，就有接近20起，甚至在中秋之夜出现多个老板集体出逃。甚至有“温州老板跑路清单”在微博上被火热传播。
美国“纽约城市大学”经济学教授陈志飞认为，在中国现在的经济条件下，民营企业的生存受到了很大的压抑，他们想通过银行贷款投资房地产，来保存他们自己的生存机会，在整个房地产突然滑坡的情况下，一些投资房地产的小型业主，还不起贷款就跑路，从温州老板大批跑路事件可以看出，欠债的数字非常巨大。
美“纽约城市大学”经济学教授陈志飞：“逼迫这些老板不得已铤而走险，现在在整个房地产危机的情况下，这个矛盾也显得很尖锐，银行对此也确实没有良策可以应对，只能是在银行的贷款，对这些企业主进行更加严格的调查，所以造成业主的生存环境显得更加严峻。”
报导还指出，温州的民间放贷全国有名，温州老板跑路该不该怪高利贷，又是谁让温州变成了高利贷之城？是温州人贪婪，还是中国金融体制？或者是央行紧缩政策？我们需要认清真相。
程晓农：“中国（共）政府一直不想承认这个事实，现在温家宝去，只不过是去灭这个他长期以来一直不想面对的麻烦，但是，恐怕这一回不像以往那样那么好应付了，因为它涉及的是银行的命脉，银行如果要想保住不垮，就只好收银根，这是浙江现在所面临的局面。银行拚命的催债，一催就垮一片企业。”
陈志飞认为，浙江的许多问题，实际上是中国整个经济问题的一个缩影，温家宝想去救火也是一筹莫展，不会有什么好的良策。
采访编辑/常春 后制/薛莉
Wen Jiabao Left Beidaihe and Went to Zhejiang in a Rush.
There’s A Hidden Secret Behind This
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao left Beidaihe Meeting,
the important event before the 18th National Congress He showed up in Zhejiang on August 14th.
Analyst pointed out the reason why Wen Jiabao went to
Zhejiang is to solve an emergency economic crisis.
Actually the Zhejiang issue is the microcosm of
the whole Chinese economy.
Wen Jiabao is unable to do anything and
will not have a good solution to handle it.
Between August 14th and 15th, the Chinese premier Wen
Jiabao visited many cities in Zhejiang province.
These including Hangzhou, Huzhou, Jiaxing, so he could
investigate the economic operation.
Wen Jiabao emphasized during the investigation: ”We should
be clear that the foundation to stabilize the economy.
It isn’t stable and economic difficulty
may continue for a while.”
The economy system in Zhejiang is based on small and
medium-sized private enterprises.
With support from local governments, Zhejiang’s private
economy is one of the most active and developed in China.
However, China central bank warned to take precautions
against increased non-performing loans which may put the economy system into risk.
At the end of June 2012, the balance of non-performing loans
of the commercial banks was 452.8billion RMB,
which is 28.7Billion more than last year.
The trend of the non-performing loans is increasing.
The non-performing loan ratios of some commercial banks
are increasing too.
In addition, the “Finance" magazine published an article
which said
the balance of the non-performing loans in
Wenzhou city was 18.1billion at the end of June;
the second wave of economy crisis is generating.
Since last September, the corporate debt formed a domino
effect in Wenzhou.
One year later, although part of the crisis has improved,
the aftermath of the debt crisis is still trapped Wenzhou.
At the same time, more and more hidden crises came to
the surface, one after another.
Cheng Xiaonong, a Chinese-American scholar said
the most difficulty that Zhejiang faced is economy crisis.
In 2008, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) spoke to the
banks lending much money to enterprises which reduced the economy crisis to a low level.
Cheng Xiaonong: “In fact, it created very serious troubles.
Starting from one year ago, the troubles started to show.
Local governments borrowed a lot of money
but couldn’t Return it.
The enterprises borrowed money but spent it on
the real estate market or doing other speculating.
Now the real estate market can’t make profit,
then those enterprises are facing collapse.”
According to the report of “Tencent Finance”, there are nearly
40 entrepreneurs who disappeared from the public
since Huang He, the board chairman of Jiangnan Leather
disappeared in April 2011.
Nearly 20 of them disappeared last September. On the night
of the Mid-Autumn festival, several entrepreneurs fled.
Even the microblogs spread a “Disappeared Wenzhou
Entrepreneurs List”.
Chen Zhifei, an economy professor of the New York City
University thought that under the current Chinese economy,
there is big oppression on the private enterprises.
They used the loans to invest in the real estate in order to
survive but the real estate market suddenly shrank.
Some small entrepreneurs lost the investment in the market,
and couldn’t return the loan and had to flee.
We can see the debts are enormous from the large number of
Wenzhou entrepreneurs who disappeared.
Chen Zhifei: “They were forced to flee. Under the current
real estate market crisis, the contradiction is very sharp.
Banks have no good solution. They can only have stricter
investigations when they release any loan.
This made the surviving environment for the
private enterprises more difficult.”
The Tencent report also pointed out that the civil loan
in Wenzhou is very famous.
Maybe it is the reason that led the entrepreneurs to flee.
But who changed Wenzhou into a city of usury?
Is it because the Wenzhou people are greedy?
Or is it because of the Chinese financial system?
Or is it because of the tightening policy?
We need to know the truth.
Cheng Xiaonong: “The CCP doesn’t want to admit the fact.
Now Wen Jiabao is there to handle the issue,
which he doesn’t want to face. This time, it will not be easy
to handle because it is related to the root of the banks.
The Banks have to tighten up monetary policy to survive,
which is the current situation in Zhejiang.
The Banks tried their best to collect the debt payment,
but the economy will collapse if it pays back the debt.”
Chen Zhifei said in fact, the issues Zhejiang has is the
microcosm of the entire Chinese economy.
Wen Jiabao is unable to do anything even he wants to
solve the issues, and he will not have any good solutions.
