【新唐人2012年8月7日讯】中国大陆国家副主席习近平5号在北戴河露面，港台媒体纷纷揣测，北戴河会议距登场不远。不过评论家指出，北戴河会议可能已经开始了，不过会议结果能否带来变革，还要画一个大问号。
随着中共高层陆续在避暑胜地北戴河亮相，港台媒体不断揣测北戴河会议召开的日期。5号晚上，《中央电视台》报导，习近平在北戴河会见参加暑期休假活动的专家和基层人才。台湾《中央社》认为，这项报导显示，“北戴河会议”即将登场。
但时事评论家伍凡指出，中共向来透明度不高，放出这样的报导，可能意味着“北戴河会议”已经开始了。
时事评论家伍凡：“往往是北戴河（会议）开完了以后啊，才会公布的。以往的，开完会了就发布一个很简单的文稿。我想（北戴河会议）已经开始了吧，或者说是预备会议开始了。它放这一个消息也就是告诉大家，我们已经在这里了。”
北京时政观察人士华颇也认为，北戴河会议可能已经开始，由于胡锦涛的心腹令计划也陪同出席习近平接见专家人才的会议，说明胡锦涛也到了北戴河。
今年十八大前的北戴河会议比以往更加神秘，海内外媒体对会议的兴趣也空前高涨，伍凡指出，这是因为目前中共内部斗争激烈和外部压力巨大。
伍凡：“一个是内部斗争，一个是外部压力。内部的斗争是名单摆不平，还有个军委会，军委会人员是谁进来，这个一直在讨价还价。这是第一个原因。第二个原因呢，这个路线怎么走？胡锦涛7月23号那个讲话，恐怕已经定调了，继续走中国特色的社会主义道路。那就等于把毛泽东路线，以及薄熙来这一派就打下去了。”
而党外压力则来自之前7.21北京特大水灾，和全国此起彼伏的维权抗争。华颇指出，最近的民众事件显现出“90后”的年轻人，要求变革的声音不同于父辈。
北京时政观察人士华颇：“‘什邡事件’、‘启东事件’这些90后的崛起，我觉得他们是非常优秀的一代，现在什么事都可能发生，共产党就稍许的改变，是不是能满足这些90后，我觉得要画一个很大的问号了。”
本届“北戴河会议”的两个议题也备受关注，一是人事安排，一是对改革方向和步伐的定调。会议是否有所突破，形成改变呢？
华颇：“我想中共的领导人，处于全局考虑，对于现在的危机他是洞若观火的，他也有改变的欲望。但是改变得了，改变不了？是否能够成功的改变？要画一个很大的问号了。因为现在中共要改变的话，首先看中共有没有勇气，而且是不是人民还给它这种时间。”
《苹果日报》评论说，“北戴河会议”可能就换届选举达成某些共识，但只要中共中央政治局委员、常委的产生方式不变，中共权斗的血腥就不会绝迹，只会开启新一轮铁幕后的权斗。
2012年也是美国大选年，华颇表示，相比“北戴河会议”连召开日期也不透明，十八大还可能延期，美国的选举体制非常透明。全国领导人诞生体制比拼之下，中国人无权选择统治者，无权参与到其中，这是非常悲哀的。
采访/刘恵 编辑/尚燕 制作/王明宇
Have the Beidaihe Meeting Been Held or Changed?
China Vice Premiere Xi Jinping appeared
at Beidaihe on the August 5.
Media in Hong Kong and Taiwan media think that
it is not much longer before the Beidaihe meetings take place.
However, commentators point out that the Beidaihe
meetings may have started already.
However, whether or not the results of the meeting
can bring about a revolution remains unknown.
High level CCP officials continue to appear
at the popular summer retreat spot of Beidaihe.
Hong Kong and Taiwan media continue
to ponder the date of Beidaihe meeting.
On August 5, China Central Television reported Xi Jinping
met with experts and grass-root talent vacationing at Beidaihe.
Taiwan Central News Agency believes this report
shows Beidaihe meetings will take place soon.
Current affairs commentator Wu Fan points out
the CCP has never had a high level of clarity.
Releasing this type of report may signify
the Beidaihe meetings have already started.
Wu Fan: “In the past, Beidaihe meetings
have been announced after they take place.
After the meeting ends, a simple draft will be published.
I think the Beidaihe meetings have started already.
At least the preparatory meetings have started.
They release this information to tell
everyone they are already there.”
Beijing political observer Hua Po also believes
the Beidaihe meetings may have already started.
Hu Jintao’s trusted aid Ling Jihua joined Xi Jingping
to meet with experts and grass-root talents.
This indicates Hu jintao is also at Beidaihe.
This year’s Beidaihe meetings are more
mysterious than have been in the past.
International media has also shown
great interest towards the meetings.
Wu Fan points out that this is because internal fighting
within the CCP is intense, and outside pressures are high.
Wu Fan: “One reason is infighting,
another reason is external pressure.
The reason of infighting is that there
is disagreement over the name list.
Who will be chosen from Central Military Commission?
This issue is still being negotiated. This is the first reason.
The second reason is how to carry out their policies.
Hu Jintao’s remarks on July 23 seem to set a direction, to
continue following socialism with Chinese characteristics.
That means abandoning Maoism,
and removing Bo Xilai’s faction.”
External pressures have come from Beijing’s devastating
7.21 floods and protests occurring all over China.
Hua Po points out that the recent protests involving young
generations shows different voices calling for reform.
Hua Po: “The Shifang and Qidong incidents
highlighted that the young generation is remarkable.
Anything could happen. Although the CCP can make slightly
changes, but I doubt whether the young generation can be satisfied.”
There are two issues that are also receiving
much attention in this year’s Beidaihe’s meetings.
One is the arrangement of personnel, and the other one
is the direction of reform and how to establish it.
This revolves around whether there will
be a breakthrough and change during the meeting?
Hua Po: “I think CCP leaders are in a position
to consider the entire situation.
As for the current dangers, they see them very clearly.
They also have the desire to change,
but whether or not change this is possible or
can be a successful still poses a huge question mark.
If the CCP wants to change now, first of all it depends
on whether the CCP has the courage to change.
It also depends on whether or not the
people give them time to do so.”
Apple Daily points out that it is possible the consensus
on the general election may be reached at Beidaihe meetings.
If there is no change in the method used to appoint CCP
members of the Politburo of the Central Committee
and Standing Committee, bloody trails resulting
from CCP power struggles will not end.
2012 is also an important election year in the U.S.
Hua Po expresses that in comparison, even meeting dates
for the Beidaihe meetings are unclear.
The 18th People’s Annual Congress may be extended
whereas in the U.S., the election system is very clear.
Under CCP rule, Chinese people do not have the right
to elect rulers, and it is a great tragedy that they do not have the rights to participate.
