【新唐人2012年8月6日讯】谷开来谋杀海伍德案件将在下周四在安徽开始审判。各方关注中共对谷开来案件判决结果，以及下一步对薄熙来的处理。评论指出，共产党将试图把薄熙来丑闻的影响降低到最小程度，阻止多米诺骨牌倒下，倾覆共产党这条大船。
谷开来谋杀英国商人海伍德一案，将远离薄熙来大本营—-重庆市，在安徽合肥开庭审理。
英国《独立报》分析说，官方指控谷开来的措辞，给予法庭操作的空间。 官方公告说，“ 因为担心海伍德对她儿子（薄瓜瓜）人身安全的威胁，薄谷开来毒杀了海伍德。”
原国务院“农村发展研究中心”研究员姚监复对《新唐人》分析说，当局可能会采用精神病等借口，减轻对谷开来的刑罚。
原国务院“农村发展研究中心”研究员姚监复：“两种可能。一种可能是判刑比较重。她是谋杀犯。第二种可能，如果她有精神病或忧郁症，会不会判轻一点，可以免除一死。我认为第二种可能性大。”
而旅居德国的社会学博士王蓉芬对《新唐人》分析说，谷开来将被判死缓。
旅德社会学博士王蓉芬：“但是中国经济大国地位，让她（谷开来）掉脑袋，怕引起西方世界抗议。反对死刑的人还是很多的。一般名人，他们（中共）都是保住（名人的）命的。”
王蓉芬在1966年曾经写信给毛泽东，质问他到底要把中国引向何处，并声明退出共青团，而被关押十三年。
《独立报》的报导说，中共内部各方派系迫切需要在谷开来审判结果上团结起来，以保证十年一次的权力交接平稳进行。报导引述政治分析家章立凡的话说，“这个迅速审判谷开来的决定，表明领导人迫切希望尽快结束这桩政治丑闻。”“他们希望甩开这个暴露了领导层分裂，并赤裸裸展示高层腐败的丑闻。”
姚监复指出，共产党将竭力把这个二十年来最大的丑闻影响，压低到最小程度，防止它成为中共倒台的导火索。
姚监复：“我想最后还是要保住这条大船。就是江泽民说，我们都在一条船上。泰坦尼克号得保住，不能一个常委一个常委，一个一个，由小到大，都给你打倒。下棋一样，你想把兵马炮都吃掉。他只能倒过来，能保兵就保兵，能保马就保马。能保车就保车。多米诺骨牌不能让它倒下去。我估计是这样。能切断一块就切断一块。”
王蓉芬表示，当局也会尽量切割薄熙来和谷开来。最近有中共内部放料说，薄熙来在十年前就已经打算跟谷开来离婚，但是为了儿子，勉强维持婚姻。
王蓉芬：“对薄熙来他们还不敢整的太狠了。因为毕竟是自己人，而且怕薄熙来那些粉丝闹事。那些极左份子，毛分子，闹起来，也是中国很不安定的因素。所以我觉得，薄熙来就不了了之，或者是软禁，不会要他的命，也不会把他关起来。”
但是，胡温“倒薄”是既定策略。
香港《开放》杂志主编金钟分析说，从权力场、从战略上考量，搞掉薄熙来是为了保障习近平顺利接班，掌权十年。江胡两代有共识：对薄不放心。因此，当务之急是防止薄十八大入常。否则薄入常后随时可以取习而代之。甚至认为，倒薄一不做二不休，非置之死地不可。打而不死，他随时可以卷土重来。
因此，金钟说，对谷开来判的越重，越有利于制服薄。然后，再加贪腐和打黑，“办薄之案，功成矣。”
采访编辑/秦雪 后制/萧宇
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will try to avoid domino
effect during Gu Kailai’s trial, analysts say.
Gu Kailai will be put on trial in Anhui province
instead of Bo Xilai’s home city,
Chongqing next Thursday, accused of
murdering Neil Heywood.
The trial, which result is closely related to how the CCP will
deal with Bo Xilai, has drawn wide attention from onlookers.
The view is that the CCP will try to minimize
the influence of the Bo Xilai scandal to protect itself,
which might otherwise collapse under the domino effect.
For the case of murdering of Neil Heywood,
the CCP’s official announcement accusing Gu Kailai
provided the opportunity for the court verdict.
UK newspaper, The Independent wrote that
the CCP authority claimed that
“Gu Kailai poisoned Heywood because she worried
about the threat against her son Bo Guagua’s life by the British Businessman.”
Yao Jianfu, former researcher of Department of
Studies of Rural Policies, told NTD that
the CCP might mitigate the punishment on Gu with
the excuse that she has mental problems.
Yao Jianfu: “There are two possibilities; the first one is
that Gu will end up with a death sentence as a murderer.
The second one is that Gu will be kept alive
if she is “identified” to be mentally disordered.
Personally I think the second case is more likely to happen.”
Wang Rongfen, an overseas scholar of sociology in Germany,
told NTD that Gu will probably get a suspended death penalty.
Wang Rongfen said: “As an economic giant,
the CCP worries about the consequent protests in western countries if Gu Kailai is executed.
In most cases the CCP chooses not to kill
very famous individuals.”
Wang Rongfen was famous for writing to Mao Zedong
in 1966, questioning the direction in which Mao was leading China.
Wang also announced she quit the Communist Youth
League and was since detained for 13 years.
The Independent’s reported that various factions in the
CCP badly needed to reach agreement on Gu Kailai’s trial,
in order to guarantee a stable power handover
which takes place every ten years.
The report cited political commentator Zhang Lifan’s words
that “The quick decision on bringing Gu to trail indicates
that the CCP leaders want to put an end to
Bo’s political scandal as soon as possible”
“They hope to be eased from the scandal which revealed
the division among the CCP leader group and the details of high-level corruptions”.
Yao Jianfu remarked that the CCP tried its best to play
down the influence of this largest scandal in recent 20 years,
preventing it from inducing any event
which might lead to the CCP’s collapse.
(Yao Jianfu): “I believe that the ultimate goal is
to prevent the “huge ship” from sinking.
As Jiang Zemin once said, ‘we are all on the same ship’.
Therefore they have to protect this “Titanic” of CCP regime,
and can’t endure the overthrow of politburo members
one after another.
It’s like a chess game. To avoid losing the game,
they will protect every piece from a pawn to a knight to a rook.
They can’t let the Dominoes fall. That’s what I guess.”
Wang Rongfen remarked that the CCP would also
try to separate Bo Xilai from Gu Kailai’s case.
Some CCP insider recently spread the news that
Bo wanted a divorce ten years ago but kept the marriage for his son.
(Wang Rongfen):”The CCP leaders don’t want
to punish Bo too seriously.
They still regard Bo as a party member and also worry
about intense reactions from Bo’s supporters.
If ultra-leftists and Maoists really do something
they can also make big trouble to China’s social stability.
Therefore I personally believe that,
Bo Xilai will be safe or house arrested at most.
He won’t be killed or put into prison.”
However, Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao won’t change
their strategy of overthrowing Bo Xilai completely.
Jin Zhong, chief editor of HK’s Open magazine said that
strategically it was necessary to overthrow Bo Xilai
so Xi Jinping could take over the power smoothly.
Both Jiang and Hu factions agree that
Bo is a dangerous person.
Therefore, the priority is to prevent Bo
from entering the politburo.
This stops Bo from conspiring a coup to replace
Xi’s position at any time.
Jin Zhong believes that it is necessary to kill Bo Xilai
if Hu Jintao wants to eliminate his threat.
If left alive Bo may get the chance of comeback.
Jin Zhong concluded that the more seriously Gu Kailai
is punished, the easier it is to suppress Bo Xilai.
Along with Bo’s crime of corruptions and the “anti-triad” movement, “it has been a success in dealing with Bo Xilai’s case”.
