【新唐人2012年8月1日讯】距离十八大召开的时间越来越近了，而入常的人选，当局仍然没有敲定。日前，有海外媒体报导，因为中共目前并没有公布常委格局是9人还是7人，因此，广东省委书记汪洋“入常”的变数最大。但是，又有分析指出，汪洋入常没有悬念。那么，出局的会是谁？下面请看本台记者的报导。
据海外媒体报导，汪洋之所以被看好，不仅仅因为他的实力，他的背景，更因为他年龄上的优势。假如中共9常委，真的削减为7常委，无疑是一种“狼多肉少”的局面，在这种情况下，如果汪洋能上位，那谁又将“出局”呢？
6月8号，香港《南华早报》曾经预测7常委人选名单，分别是习近平、李克强、俞正声、张德江、王岐山、李源潮和刘云山。资深媒体人王宇心分析认为，这是江派精心挑选的名单，放风的目地是投石问路，在“北戴河会议”前试探党内外舆论的反应。而从目前形势来看，备受争议的贪腐江派人马俞正声、张德江“入常”希望渺茫。
最近，原打算在秦皇岛参加中共18大预备会议的上海访民，被非法抓捕，上海市驻京办事处的一位工作人警察告访民，“凡是写出18大期间不再上访的保证书的，可以在家里安居，不写保证书的一律拘留或教养。”分析认为，俞正声至今仍延续“血债派”的做法，残害老百姓。
王宇心表示，胡锦涛把贪腐保守的江系“血债派”——俞正声、张高丽、张德江、孟建柱等人踢出十八大常委会，有助于下一届领导班子推进中共和平转型。
那么，对于汪洋是否能进常委，原历史学教授刘因全表示，无论是9常委，还是7常委，汪洋入常都没有悬念。
原历史学教授刘因全：“汪洋在广东也很有政绩，主要是乌坎事件，他处理的非常好，最近又提出来幸福广东，代表下层人民的利益，提出一些大政方针，我认为这些都会给他入常加分，所以，我认为即使中共改为7常委，汪洋入常也是没有悬念的。”
此外，今年两会前后，汪洋公开喊出“改革要从党和政府头上开刀”，以及“破除人民幸福是党和政府恩赐的错误认识”等惊人言论，并宣布在广东试点“官员财产申报制度”，和率先在深圳推动“工会直选”，另外，广东21个地级市政法委书记不再兼任公安局长。
而在广东面临台风和大暴雨的时候，汪洋冒着风雨，前往惠州考察，大展“亲民秀”，并再度高唱“幸福广东”的主旋律。《路透社》曾指出，“汪洋被视为下一个温家宝”。《澳广》日前也报导，“汪洋是中国政坛的一颗新星，被广泛认为是改革派领导人之一。”
网路作家吴建国则表示，作为一个改革派，汪洋“入常”会带来一些改革的希望，但是，在现有体制下，能走多远，他不抱太大的期望。
网路作家吴建国：“汪洋即使入了常，他是否能够继续他的改革，也是一个很大问题。比如说，过去朱镕基在当总理前，他就曾经豪言壮语要惩治贪污腐败，但上台后，他就悄声了，他就难以实现他的豪言壮语，他甚至想辞职不干了。所以问题的关键，不在于谁上谁下的问题，而是中共这个制度，专制制度的问题。这个制度不解体，就很难以实现民主、法制、还政于民。”
吴建国还表示，9常委是过去江泽民搞的，目地是，让他自己的人在常委中拥有绝对多数，以避免遭到清算，那时9常委就有6人是他的人，胡锦涛和温家宝的意见难以在常委中获得通过。
但是，无论是7人也好，还是9人也好，吴建国认为，这只是一种权力斗争，不会对政治改革和实现民主起到什么作用。
采访编辑/常春 后制/薛莉
CCP Standing Committee—Who Will be Out if Wang Yang is In?
It is getting closer to the Chinese Communist Party(CCP)’s
18th Congress, but the authorities haven’t decided who will finally get into the Standing Committee.
Recently, overseas media have been saying that
since the CCP hasn’t declared the size of the committee,
whether the Party chief in Guangdong, Wang Yang,
can join the committee has the most uncertainty.
Some analysts believe that Wang Yang, the CCP Secretary
of Guandong and member of the Politburo,
will certainly join the committee,
but who will then be kicked out? Here’s our report.
According to overseas media, Wang Yang not only has talent
and background but is also at a relatively young age.
Wang Yang, the Chinese Communist Party(CCP) Secretary
of Guandong and Politburo member,
is a promising candidate for the CCP’s Standing Committee.
But if the number of the Standing Committee members is
reduced from 9 to 7, then “there is too little meat for so many wolves”, say media.
Under such circumstances, if Wang Yang joins
the committee, then who will be kicked out?
On June 8, the South China Morning Post (HK) predicted the
7 members of the Standing Committee as being:
Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, Yu Zhengsheng, Zhang Dejiang,
Wang Qishan, Li Yuanchao, and Liu Yunshan.
Wang Yuxin, a senior media reporter, says this list has been
carefully selected by Jiang’s Faction with the purpose
of sounding out the opinions inside and outside the party
before the Beidaihe Meeting.
But the current situation suggests that Yu Zhengsheng
and Zhang Dejiang from the Jiang Faction,
who are highly controversial and corrupt,
are not likely to be elected.
Recently, some Shanghai petitioners who planned to attend
the preparatory meeting for the18th Congress in Qinhuangdao City were arrested.
Staff from the Shanghai Office in Beijing told the petitioners that
“those who promise not to appeal again by signing a statement can stay home safely;
those who don’t will all be arrested or sent to labor camps”.
Analysts say that Yu Zhengsheng is still following the blood-
debt faction’s way of persecuting people.
Wang Yuxin says that by kicking out Jiang’s corrupt and
conservative blood-debt faction—including Yu Zhengsheng,
Zhang Gaoli, Zhang Dejiang, and Meng Jianzhu—from the
Standing Committee,
the next generation of leaders will be able to promote
the CCP’s transformation smoothly.
On whether Wang Yang can join the Standing Committee,
Liu Yinquan, a former history professor, says that
whether the Standing Committee has 9 or 7 positions,
there is no doubt that Wang Yang will get in.
[Liu Yinquan, Former History Professor]: “Wang Yang has a good political record in Guangdong
Province and he handled the Wukan Incident especially well.
Wang Yang recently came up with the concept of Happy
Guangdong, and put forward many positive policies for the Interest of the lower class.
I think these will all add points for him; therefore I think even
if the CCP is having 7 committee members, Wang Yang will be elected.”
Also, before the “Two Congresses” this year, Wang Yang
claimed in public that “reforms should start from the Party and government”
and to “discard the misconception that the people’s welfare
is bestowed by the Party and government”.
Wang Yang started the trial of the “officials’ asset report”
in Guangdong and “labor union elections” in Shenzhen.
Besides, the 21 secretaries of Guangdong’s regional
committees of political and legislative affairs are no longer serving as Public Security Bureau chiefs.
Also, when Guangdong suffered from typhoons and storms,
Wang Yang visited Huizhou City in rain,
showing the image of being close to the people,
and again advocated the main idea of “Happy Guangdong.”
The Reuters said that “Wang Yang
is regarded as the next Wen Jiabao.”
ABC Radio Australia recently reported that
Wang Yang is China’s rising new star
and is widely regarded as one of the leaders
to push for political reforms.
Wu Jianguo, an online writer, says that as a member of the
political reform faction,
Wang Yang’s “joining the Standing
Committee” will bring some hope for reforms.
But Wu does not have high expectations for political reforms
in the current political system.
[Wu Jianguo, Online Writer]: “Even if Wang Yang joins the
Standing Committee, whether he can continue his reforms will become a question.
For example, the former premier Zhu Rongji vowed to punish
the corrupt, but he became quiet after taking on his position.
Zhu Rongji cannot realize his promise and has
even considered quiting.
Therefore the key to the problem is not who gets elected
or kicked out, but the current autocratic regime of the CCP.
If the CCP regime does not collapse, none of the goals of
democracy, the rule of law, and of giving the power back to the people can be realized.”
Wu Jianguo says that Jiang Zemin decided to have 9 Standing
Committee members to make his faction the majority in the Standing Committee, to avoid being punished.
At that time, among the 9 members,
6 of them belonged to Jiang’s faction,
and therefore Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao’s opinions
were hardly approved within the committee.
But whether it’s 7 or 9, Wu Jianguo believes that
it is only a struggle for power and won’t make any difference
in China’s political reform or in the realization of democracy.
