【新唐人2012年7月25日讯】7月23号，大陆中共政治局九常委全数出席了“省部级主要领导干部专题研讨班”开班仪式，国家主席胡锦涛在仪式上发表了“重要讲话”，罕见的，他谈到了政治体制改革，同时，他还强调，来自外部的风险前所未有，党的建设方面特别是党员、干部队伍，出现了许多亟待解决的突出问题。下面请看专家的分析解读。
据大陆媒体报导，胡锦涛这篇讲话涵盖了政治、经济、民生、文化、党建设各个方面。
谈到政治体制改革时，胡锦涛表示，必须坚持“党的领导、人民当家作主、依法治国”三者结合。胡锦涛说，未来要“更加自觉、更加坚定”推进改革开放，不断在“制度建设和创新方面迈出新步伐”。
美国“南加州大学”公共政策博士叶科表示，胡锦涛强调坚持政治体制改革必须坚持党的领导，这跟坚持中共独裁没有什么差别，在此基础上，胡锦涛所谈的政治体制改革非常空洞，也有局限性。
美国“南加州大学”公共政策博士叶科：“他为什么要提政改，就是因为共产体制…说实在话，现在已经走到绝路上了，胡锦涛这点我想他不会不清楚。”
此外，胡锦涛还谈到，现时中共所处的历史方位和执政条件、党员队伍组成结构，都发生重大变化，“来自外部的风险前所未有，党的建设方面特别是党员、干部队伍出现了许多亟待解决的突出问题”。
时事评论员林子旭认为，在这个问题上，胡锦涛说了大实话。
时事评论员林子旭：“中共行将就木，中共内部的很多官员都在盘算着给自己留后路，很多新加入进来的党员也是抱着自己不同的利益而来。今天中共党员更多想的就是，如何逃离这个党或是如何利用这个党。”
叶科表示，共产党确实出现了许多亟待解决的突出问题。
叶科：“共产党当年是靠着共产主义这个大旗，这个招牌，不管它用什么办法，把人骗来了也好，拉拢来了也好，就是它这样组织起来了，那么今天，共产主义，你去问所有的共产党员，基本上共产主义就成了一个笑话。这个招牌不仅没法吸引人，而且成了一个笑谈。”
也有分析认为，胡锦涛在中共十八大前再三强调改革开放，意味着大搞意识形态、强势政府的“重庆模式”已经彻底破产，而提出要“集中统一”，则是要将内部的分化和争议整合起来。
时事评论员林子旭：“目前中国大陆民怨沸腾，人们通过各种渠道了解的信息越来越多，对自己应该享有何种权益越来越清楚，对中共的这种恐惧感，也在日渐消失，相反中共的统治基础则越来越虚弱。如果中共依然按照以往惯用的统治手段，去针对民众的各种诉求的话，那中共的统治必然朝不保夕。”
另外，叶科指出，整个国际社会，对共产主义的思潮的反思，和去共产主义化的浪潮，再加上现在很多明智的老百姓，已经认清了共产党的本质。
叶科：“共产党本身内部正在出现这样的分化，基本上是群中无首，这样一个状态，诸侯割据，所以在这种情况下，共产党自己也管不住自己了，管老百姓，老百姓也是怨声载道，在这种情况下，共产党统治就面临全面的危机。”
叶科认为，在历史自由化的浪潮之下，如果共产党再继续坚持所谓的共产党领导，继续走过去专制道路，继续对老百姓的迫害政策，压制政策，未来对中共高层是一个严峻的考验。
采访编辑/常春 后制/薛莉
Hu Jintao Talks Political Reform and of Unprecedented Outside Risks
On July 23, the Chinese Communist Party(CCP)’s 9 members
of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau
all attended the opening ceremony of “The Seminar
for Provincial or Ministry level cadres”.
Head of the CCP Hu Jintao gave an “important speech"
at the ceremony, he mentioned political reform that he hardly said in the past.
Meanwhile, Hu stresses that there are unprecedented risks
from the outside world, with many significant problems having showed up within the Party building,
especially among Party members and the cadre team.
Here’s the experts’ analysis.
China’s media says, Hu Jintao’s latest speech
covered many fields like politics, economy,
the people’s livelihood, and the Party building.
When talking about political reform, Hu Jintao said that
the three elements—“Party leadership, the people being the
masters, and the rule of law”—must be adhered to.
Hu also said, reform and opening should be further promoted
“more actively and firmly” and
“new steps in institutional reforms and innovations”
should be continuously taken.
Dr. Ye Ke of the University of South California(U.S.)’s
Public Policy department says,
Hu reiterated that the Party leadership is in political reform,
which means adhering to the CCP’s autocracy.
Based on that, Hu Jintao’s speech about political reform was
very empty and limited.
[Dr Ye Ke, Public Policy, South California University (U.S.)]:
“The reason Hu mentioned political reform is because
the CCP regime has actually come to a dead end—I believe
Hu Jintao is also aware of it.”
Hu Jintao also mentioned that the CCP’s historical position,
its governing situation, and its structure of Party members
have experienced profound changes.
Hu Jintao stated “There are unprecedented risks
from the outside world, with many significant problems
having showed up within the Party building,
especially among Party members and the cadre team.”
Lin Zixu, current affairs commentator,
says Hu Jintao was telling the truth on this issue.
[Lin Zixu, Current Affairs Commentator]: “The CCP regime
is about to end, and many high officials within the Party are seeking a way out,
while many new members are joining
for their own interests.
Today, what CCP members think about the most is
how to escape the Party or how to exploit it.”
Ye Ke says the CCP does have many significant
problems which need to be solved immediately.
[Dr Ye Ke, USC]: “In the past, the CCP took power
under the banner and brand of communism—
whether by tricking or wheedling, they formed this team.
But today, if you go ask CCP members about communism,
you will see that it has become a big joke—
people are not attracted by it but are making fun of it.”
Some analysts believe that Hu Jintao’s reiteration of reform
and opening up, before the 18th Congress, indicates that
“the Chongqing Mode” of advocating ideology and power-
politics, has gone completely bankrupt.
Hu also talked about “centralism and unity”,
which is to unite the different forces within the Party.
[Lin Zixu “Currently, there is seething discontent in China
and people are getting more information through all kinds of channels,
so they are more aware of their rights and
fear of the CCP is disappearing.
On the contrary, the CCP’s foundation is weakening;
if the CCP tackles people’s appeals in its usual political ways,
then the CCP regime is doomed to end soon.”
Ye Ke also points out that the whole world is reconsidering
communism, creating awave of getting rid of it.
Many wise people have realized the true nature of
the Communist Party.
[Dr Ye Ke]: “The Party itself is splitting, without a leader,
and has formed many factions within the Party.
Under such circumstances, the CCP cannot even
control itself and is facing seething discontent
when trying to control the general public—therefore,
CCP is facing a general crisis.”
Ye Ke believes that in the historical tendency of liberalization,
if the CCP adheres to the so-called Party leadership and keeps
up the persecution and suppression of its own people,
its high-level authorities will face severe challenges
in the future.
