【新唐人2012年7月16日讯】随着十八大的临近，中共政局的走向已经成为大陆民众茶余饭后热衷的话题，网上更是议论纷纷。《博讯网》7月12号登出网民“华颇”对中共当前政治布局的预测，更列出了十八大热门人选，并用“百分比概率”进行排行，引起外界关注。
华颇在文章中首先分析说，政法委因为在“薄、王案”上栽了大跟头，所以在十八大上“被降级”是在情理之中。
同时他认为，胡锦涛在控制了“枪杆子”后，还要在十八大上拿回被江派人马掌控的“笔杆子”。换句话说，主管意识形态的中共政治局常委、中央宣传思想工作领导小组组长李长春肯定要被扫地下台了。
华颇： “比如说《人民日报》来讲，中共中央第一报了，它既有不要对党的政策说三道四的文章，也有前后观点矛盾的文章，给人莫衷一是，造成非常混乱， 这就造成一把手不能掌握舆论工具，所以我认为十八大要是9变7人，李长春那个位置也会被取消的，他所拥有的那个权力也会被新选出来的一把手所拥有。”
对于这些被热门讨论的人选在十八大入常的“概率”，华颇猜测，汪洋相对来说具有开放意识，有可能会接替李长春的位置，当选概率是80%﹔其次是张德江，可能接替贾庆林的位置，当选概率为70%﹔接下来是中组部部长李源潮，可能接替贺国强的位置，当选的概率为70%﹔王岐山和令计划的当选概率都为60%﹔刘延东可能作为花瓶入常，当选概率为50%。
除了华颇的版本，网上还流传着民间对中共十八大后政局各种各样的预测。华颇说，这正是中共政治极端不透明所导致的。
华颇：“中国政治生活极端不透明，不得不引起人们对此进行猜测，所以每个人都会用各种各样的原因进行推断。 政治来找你，你不找政治，政治也会来找你，所以我们每个人都在政治生活中决定一切，所以我们关心政治也是应该的。”
时事评论员汪北稷认为，现在越来越多的大陆民众敢于参与谈论政治，这样中国才有希望。
汪北稷：“大家需要谈论政治来消除它的敏感性，不要对政治敏感。 政治简单化，每个人都可以参与，越多的人批评政治，参与政治，中国越好，中国会越简单。”
汪北稷指出，中国的军队、信息、新闻、教育等国家的每一个细节都被中共政治化，中共的红色政治甚至凌驾于法律之上。
汪北稷：“到处都是他的政治，一个颜色的政治、红色的政治，一个政治符号和方向。这样造成中国政治上的风险非常大，在别的国家是一个简单的，通过法制解决的问题，在中国变成一个巨大的丑闻、巨大的风险。”
尽管敢于议论中共政局的大陆民众越来越多，汪北稷指出，同时民众也不无失望的看到，共产党的高官，所有准备入常的政治局委员，或者所有的候补委员中，还没有看到有人有勇气来改变历史。
采访/刘惠 编辑/许旻 后制/萧宇
18th Congress Politburo Candidate List Spread Over Internet
The 18th Congress is now approaching. The Chinese
Communist Party’s (CCP) next has become a hot topic.
Many rumors are spreading over the internet.
On July 12, the Boxun website published predictions
on the 18th Congress candidates by netizen Hua Po.
He ranked candidates by a percentage possibility,
which has drawn the public’s attention.
Hua Po has analyzed that the Political and Legislative
Affairs Committee (PLAC) has been badly weakened
since the Bo Xilai and Wang Lijun incidents.
It is a natural move that they will
be “demoted” during the 18th Congress.
Hua said that after Hu Jintao took control of the army,
the next step is that Hu would take the “pen” back
from Jiang Zemin’s faction.
In other words, this means Li Changchun,
propaganda chief of the CCP, would be removed.
Hua Po: “For example, the People’s Daily, a CCP
mouthpiece, has published articles recently.
They are either criticizing or promoting CCP policy.
This has confused people, and seems very chaotic.
This is the result of the propaganda chief
being unable to control the situation.
During the 18th Congress, if the number of Politburo
members changes from nine to seven, Li Changchun’s seat would be removed.
His position as propaganda chief would
be replaced by a new member.”
For possible candidates, Hua Po guessed that
Wang Yang, who is open-minded, has an 80% chance of taking over from Li Changchun.
Zhang Dejiang has a 70% possibility
of replacing Jia Qinglin.
Li Yuanchao, minister of the CCP organization department,
has a 70% chance of taking over from He Guoqiang.
Wang Qishan and Ling Jihua have
a 60% chance to be elected.
Liu Yandong has a 50% possibility
of being elected into the Politburo.
Aside from Hua Po’s prediction, there are many rumors
about the 18th Congress circulated over the internet.
Hua Po said that the CCP being extremely opaque
was the leading cause for these rumors.
Hua Po: “The CCP’s extreme opaqueness
is leaving people guessing.
Everyone is taking a different angle
and point of view in guessing.
Politics is connected with you,
even you aren’t concern about it.
Everyone makes decisions in a political environment.
Having concern for politics is necessary.”
Wang Beiji, a current affairs commentator believes that more
mainlanders should participate in discussions on politics.
Only by doing so will China has a future.
Wang Beiji: “Everyone should talk about politics
to erase its sensitivity. Don’t be sensitive about politics.
To make politics simple, everyone can participate.
The more people criticize and participate in politics,
the better and more simple China will be.”
Wang Beiji pointed out that China’s military, information,
news and education are all politicized by the CCP.
The CCP’s red politics is above the law.
Wang Beiji: “The CCP has labeled everything as politics.
They have colored politics with a red color,
with a symbol and a direction.
This results in China’s politics facing crisis.
In other countries, it is a simple issue,
as the law can solve the problem.
However, in China, the problem can turn
to large scandals and risks.”
Wang said that although more mainlanders have discussed
the CCP’s political situation bravely, they’re disappointed
that none of high-ranking officials, Politburo candidates,
or alternative members have the courage to change history.
