【新唐人2012年7月10日讯】将要确定十八大后政治局常委人选的“北戴河会议”，马上就要召开了，中共各派为此展开的内斗也将趋于白热化。和政治局常委的最终人选相比，本届政治局最终的人数似乎更加重要。是7还是9？人数的变动就是胡锦涛和江泽民等“血债派”之间的角力。胡锦涛会推出怎样的人选呢？
十八大前夕，各界盛传胡锦涛打算恢复7常委制，而且团派很可能以4：3占据优势。不过江派对此也作出一系列反扑，除了放风预测江派人马占多数的常委人选名单，《人民日报》海外版7月3号头版刊登中共智囊胡鞍钢文章，为“9常委”制度唱赞歌。7、9舆论造势之争如同拉锯。
时事评论员林子旭认为，这次胡锦涛应该会力争将常委人数由9人减少到7人。因为如果政治局常委的椅子依然是9张，张德江或张高丽等江派人马加入的可能性就会增加，胡锦涛团派想要在政治局常委会占据多数席位就会非常困难。
时事评论员林子旭：“胡锦涛当政十年，他是吃尽了政治局内部席位不足之苦。目前胡锦涛的人马相对来讲入常的呼声较高，但是人数较少，所以这次胡锦涛会力争将常委人数由9人减少至7人，这样胡锦涛的人马才有可能在新一届政治局常委会占据优势。”
如果胡锦涛占上风，将常委人数确定为七人的话，那最终的人选又将是谁呢？
《胡锦涛传》作者文思咏、任知初认为，在胡锦涛的腹案中有5名团派成员，都将进入新一届的中央政治局常委。他们年龄都在67岁以下，现任政治局委员和书记处书记。分别是： 国务院常务副总理李克强；中组部长李源潮；中宣部长刘云山；广东省委书记汪洋；和近期炙手可热的中央办公厅主任令计划。
李克强是胡锦涛在十七大就看好的人选；李源潮横跨上海帮、太子党和共青团派等派系，很早就是胡锦涛比较信任的部下；汪洋早就受温家宝青睐，这三人进入政治局常委，基本上悬念不大。
而刘云山是太子党，父亲是薄一波的下属。他受江泽民重用，93年被提拔进京任中宣部副部长，2002年升任中宣部长，跟主管宣传的江派常委李长春走得很近，也因为迫害法轮功被国际人权组织列为重点追查对像。但最近有消息说，他向胡锦涛靠拢。
林子旭指出，刘云山由于背景复杂，不一定能接下李长春的位子。
林子旭：“习近平、李克强已经是铁定入常了，王岐山入常也已经是没有什么争议了。剩下四个席位胡锦涛必须夺得三个才能确保自己的绝对权力。汪洋、李源潮、刘云山入常应该争议不大，但是刘云山背景复杂，不能说是胡锦涛的嫡系人马。这样的话呢，最后一个席位就显得非常的关键。”
五人中最后一位令计划，一直都是胡锦涛的幕僚长，现在担任中办主任，炙手可热，但令计划目前还不是政治局委员，像十七大习近平那样由中央委员直接跃升为政治局常委，属于破格，在中共历史上罕见。但林子旭认为，胡锦涛会尽力为他创造机会。
林子旭：“第七个人我觉得很有可能就是令计划，胡锦涛为了确保自己权力的绝对稳固，他必然要考虑隔代接班的问题，虽然难度非常大，但是胡锦涛会力争让令计划入常。”
时事评论员汪北稷指出，应该用逆向思维来看“7常委”还是“9常委”，以及胡锦涛团派和江派势力互斗的人选放风宣传。
时事评论员汪北稷：“它这个中共江山就是在所谓的‘红二代’，高干子弟，太子党手里拿着，然后给了团派作势的一点空间。如果说，军队和党的根本权力，财政的根本权力，人事的根本权力，在谁的手里面，谁就是老大。他可能不是常委，但他的权力超过九个常委。所以这个归根到底是中共这个党文化，权力机制的不透明。”
汪北稷指出，中共制度中这种由上往下，表面上的制约，实际上没有制约。中共在十八大的人选上可能创新，但是它的核心不会改变，这种非民选“寡头政治”体制，已经导致激烈的内斗，最后甚至可能导致军事政变。
采访/常春 编辑/尚燕 后制/柏妮
Hu’s name list: Will it be seven or nine?
The Politiburo Standing Committee candidates will be
confirmed at the 18th National Congress at Beidahe meeting.
As the meeting draws near, infighting intensifies with the
comparing of names and the numbers within the Standing Committee, whether it be 7 or 9?
The change of numbers reflects the battle between Hu
Jintao and Jiang Zemin and his bloody group.
The key questions remains, which candidate
will Hu propose !?
http://forum.dwnews.com/threadshow.php?tid=962179&extra=page%3D1
Before the 18th CCP National Congress, much discussion
took place concerning the numbers of Politburo Standing Committee.
Hu planned to recover the seven standing committee system.
With the Youth League group taking advantage of a ratio of 4:3.
Jiang’s group however, made a series of comebacks.
People’s Daily Overseas published an article written
by Hu Angang on July 3rd, with Hu praising the nine standing committee system.
This whole process is seen as a tug of war between members.
Commentator Lin Zixu thinks, Hu Jintao must strive to reduce
the number of standing committee members from nine to seven.
If the number remains nine, the chance of Zhang Dejiang or
Zhang Gaoli (both from the Jiang faction) taking position,becomes greater.
This would make things much more difficult For Hu and
his Youth League group, to maintain a majority.
Lin Zixu: “Hu Jintao has fought to take power for ten years.
Due to a lack of support within the Standing Committee in the past,
It is imperative Hu now strives to reduce the numbers from 9
to 7 giving him the advantage and the majority.
If Hu does gain the advantage of confirming the number of
members in Politburo Standing Committee, who will be the final candidates?
Wen Siyong and Ren Zhichu, the authors of “Hu Jintao’s
Biography” think there are five people from the Youth League group listed in Hu Jintao’s plan.
All candidates suggested are below the age 67, are also
members of the Politburo and secretaries of the Secretariat,
including: State Council Executive Vice Premier Li
Keqiang, Minister of the Organization Department of the CC.
Also Central Committee Li Yuanchao, Minister of Propaganda
Department of CCP Central Committee Liu Yunshan,
Guangdong CCP Secretary Wang Yang, and Central Office
Director Ling Jihua, who recently became a hot politician.
Li Keqiang was chosen by Hu Jintao in the 17th CCP National
Congress, Li Yuanchao is central to the Shanghai group,
princelings and Youth League group and has became a trusted
subordinate of Hu Jintao, very early on.
Wang Yang was chosen very early by Wen Jiabao. There is little
suspense on the entering opportunity of these three people.
Liu Yunshan belongs to the princelings, and his father was
the subordinate of Bo Yibo.
He was promoted by Jiang Zemin, becoming Vice Minister of
the Propaganda Department to the CCP Central Committee in 1993 and Minister in 2002.
He has a close relationship with Li Changchun, who is in charge
of propaganda in the standing committee,he’s also a member of the Jiang group.
Liu Yunshan is a key suspect according to the international
human rights organizations due to his persecution of Falun Gong.
However, much evidence shows recently that Liu moved
closer to Hu Jintao.
Lin Zixu said, Liu Yunshan may not take the position of Li
Changchun due to his complex background.
Upon learning that the Governor of Calif. was coming to visit,
Lin Zixu: “Xi Jinpang and Li Keqiang must enter the standing
committee, and there is little suspense on the entering opportunity of Wang Qishan.
Hu Jintao must take three of four remaining seats to ensure
his absolute power.
There is also little suspense on the entering opportunity of Wang Yang, Li
Yuanchao and Liu Yunshan.
However, Liu Yunshan has a complex background.
He does not belong to the loyalists of Hu Jintao.
Thus, the last seat is very important.”
Ling Jihua, the last one within the five and also the
Chief of Staff of Hu Jintao, now serves as the Central Office Director.
Ling Jihuang is a hot politician, but he is not a Politburo member.
It will be difficult for him to jump into the Politburo Standing
Committee directly from Central Committee, like Xi Jinping did.
This phenomena is very seldom seen in the history of CCP.
However, Li Zixu thinks Hu Jintao will try to create
opportunities for him.
Lin Zixu: “From my perspective, the 7th person may be Ling
Jihua. Hu Jintao wants to ensure his absolute power and he
must consider the inter-generational successor.
Hu Jintao will try to put Ling Jihua into the Politburo Standing
Committee, although it will be very difficult.”
Commentator Wang Beiji said, the reverse thinking should
be used to understand the arguments between the seven
standing committee system and nine standing committee system.
Also, other news has escalated from the fight between
Youth League group and the Jiang Zemin group.
Commentator Wang Beiji: “The resource of the whole country
is controlled by ‘Red II’ or princelings.
They do not leave much space for Youth League group.
Thus, whoever controls the fundamental power of the army,
CCP, finance and personnel, becomes the boss.
Even if the eventual leader is not a standing committee
member, he will nonetheless take the greatest power.
The root cause of CCP culture, its mechanism,
is based upon complete control.”
Wang Beiji quoted,” this top-down constraint within CCP
system, is just something on the surface and is useless.
CCP may make some changes on the election of the 18th CCP
National Congress, but its core will never be changed.
This non-elected oligarchy system has led to intense infighting,
it may finally lead to a military coup.
