【新唐人2012年7月6日讯】推翻专制体制的“阿拉伯之春”运动，开始于2010年12月的突尼斯，至今，已有突尼斯、埃及、利比亚、叶门四个专制国家被推翻，迫使阿拉伯世界多个国家调整了政策。不过，远在东亚的专制国家—-中国，内部同样不像表面那么平静，中共高层已经召开十次专题秘密会议，研究如何预防中国出现“阿拉伯之春”。
五个月前，中共外交部官员在“慕尼克国际安全会议”上，反驳美国参议员马侃有关“阿拉伯之春即将在中国出现”的说法，并宣称“中国出现阿拉伯之春的说法，纯属幻想”。
但是，根据香港《争鸣》杂志鲍文来的文章揭示，一年来，以胡锦涛为组长的“中共国家安全领导小组”，已经十次召开专题秘密会议，讨论中国可能出现“阿拉伯之春”的形式与爆发时机。
文章说，中国每年巨增的失业群体已经成了中共高层的心病。大量底层出身的高中学生放弃了高考，另外，大量的“毕业即失业”大学生，以及，自去年下半年，无业青年“两抢”案件上升了170%，对此，中共高层不得不决定停止大学扩招计划。
文章还认为，中国社会极度不公，即便是不引发“阿拉伯之春”之类的全民运动，也会高频率的引发群体事件。网路上的小规模调查表明：“中国早晚会乱”已经是底层共识，财富群体的新一轮“移民潮”强化了这种认识。
政论家伍凡认为，大陆民众对中共政权越来越不满，这与出现“阿拉伯之春”的国家情形很类似。而且，中共目前已经失去了对社会的控制，惯用的镇压政策也逐渐在失效。
伍凡：“你从最近几次活动看，就在上个月的广东中山几万人对抗武警，武警派了几千人去实弹镇压，从7月1号开始到今天7月5号了，四川甚邡市的抗议环保，都是几万人出来了。”
《争鸣》杂志还揭露，国安小组第十次会议分析了“阿拉伯之春”发生的概率之后，结果很不乐观：社会保障后续乏力与可能的亏空，将会引发大规模社会抗议。为解燃眉之急，中共试探 “推迟退休年龄五年” 计划，结果网上骂声一片，民众“上街”的情绪高涨。
在国际上，“阿拉伯之春”影响还在扩大：俄国普京以舞弊方式赢得总统大选，在俄国内部抗议运动逐渐升级，“俄版阿拉伯之春”已见征兆。而且中国内部的“新疆版、藏版阿拉伯之春”随时可现。
文章透露，对此压力，目前中共最高层频繁调整策略，如放松微博控制，就是6月21号国安小组第10次秘密会议的决定。
中共喉舌《人民日报》最近几乎以恳求的口气要求地方各级政府在处理国内问题时，“要考虑国际影响”，并以陕西安康市妇女怀孕七个月被强制人工流产为例，指出，基层政权恶行给“中国形象”造成巨大负面影响。
但是，政论家伍凡指出，中共一直镇压老百姓，不是放开一个微博矛盾就能消除，也不是中共会议讨论就能够解决。
伍凡： “共产党你就开10次、开一百次这样的会议也没有用，因为共产党欺骗镇压老百姓而不是关心老百姓，那老百姓怎样容忍啊？已经容忍60多年了。现在四川90代中学生打前锋，他们出来了，这过去共产党不敢想像的。香港40万人上街，共产党能想像的到吗？”
伍凡表示，目前微博放开控制，是中共内部分化的表现。他指出，现在不只是老百姓不相信共产党，连党员自己也不相信共产党。他说，只有结束中共统治才能避免中国的“阿拉伯之春”。
采访/陈汉 编辑/宋风 后制/肖颜
CCP Leaders Hold Ten Secret Meetings:
How Can They Prevent an “Arab Spring” in China.
December 2010 saw the beginning of a series
of democratic movements against dictatorial regimes.
This was called the “Arab Spring.”
Since this began, four dictatorships have been overturned,
including in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen.
The movement also forced many other Arabian
countries to adjust their political policies.
In China, which is still governed by a dictatorship,
the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the situation is also not as tranquil as it appears.
It is revealed that CCP leaders have held ten secret
Meetings, discussing how to prevent an “Arab Spring” from taking place in China.
Five months ago in Munich, a CCP Foreign Ministry official
tried to deny US Senator John McCain’s words.
McCain suggested the Arab Spring would appear in China.
He also claimed that “any statement saying that the Arab
Spring has spread to China is unrealistic”.
However, an article written by Bao Wenlai
in Hong Kong’s Cheng Ming magazine revealed
that the “CCP National Security Leading Group”
chaired by Hu Jintao has secretly met ten times.
This was to discuss how and when
the “Arab Spring” might break out in China.
The article wrote that one of the CCP leaders biggest
worries is the sharp increase in unemployment.
Unemployment is mainly found in high school
students, who give up attending the national college
examination, and college students who cannot
find a job after graduation.
In the second half of 2011, robberies committed
by unemployed, young people have increased by 170%.
Consequently, the CCP had to stop its plan
for further enrollment expansion in colleges.
The article also remarked that Chinese
society had become very unjust.
Even without a national protest like the “Arab Spring”,
there are frequent massive protests breaking out locally.
Some internet surveys among small groups indicate
most Chinese civilians agree that
“some kind of turmoil will eventually take place in China”.
The “immigration wave” of rich people has provided
further support to these opinions.
Political commentator Wu Fan believes that mainland
Chinese are becoming more and more resentful against the CCP authorities.
This is similar to the situations of the
countries involved in the “Arab Spring”.
In addition, the CCP is also losing its control
on society, with its old acts of suppression losing their effects on Chinese people.
(Wu Fan): “Let’s have a look at recent activities.
In the last few month, tens of thousands of people
in Zhongshan, Guangdong stood up against the police.
The CCP had to send thousands
of armed police as a crack down.
Since July 1st, many more thousands of people joined
the environmental protection protests in Shifang, Sichuan.”
The Cheng Ming article also revealed that the 10th meeting
of the CCP National Security Leading Group had analyzed the possibility of an “Arab Spring” in China.
The result was not good for the CCP.
Due to a huge deficit in social security funds, even
larger-scale protests will probably be induced.
Trying to find a quick solution, the CCP announced
a plan of “extending retirement age by five years”.
Nevertheless, they received overwhelming criticism
on the internet, causing more protests on the street.
Globally, the effects of the Arab Spring are still spreading.
Since Putin was found to be involved in fraud scandals
during 2012 presidential elections, the scale of protests began increasing in Russia.
Inside China, Arab-spring-like movements can
occasionally be observed in Xinjiang or Tibet.
The Cheng Ming article revealed that CCP leaders had
frequently adjusted their strategies to release this pressure.
For example, on June 21st during the 10th secret meeting,
they decided to loosen control on micro-blog sites.
Recently, People’s Daily, the CCP’s mouthpiece media,
also published articles requiring local governments
to “consider global effects” when dealing with local affairs.
The article cited the case of forced abortion of a seven
month pregnant woman in Ankang, Shanxi,
to show how “bad behaviors” of local authorities
had negatively affected the “figure of China”.
Wu Fan pointed out that since the CCP has been
suppressing Chinese people for so many years.
It’s not possible to eliminate these grudge by any discussion
in meetings, or only loosening control on micro-blog sites.
(Wu Fan): “As long as the CCP continues to deceive
and suppress Chinese people instead of benefiting them.
Nothing will change even if the CCP holds
hundreds of such meetings.
How can Chinese people tolerate this any more?
You know they have tolerated it for sixty years.
Now the post-90’s middle-school students in Sichuan
stood out as pioneers in street protests. This is unimaginable for the CCP.
In Hong Kong, 400,000 people joined the July 1st
parade against the dictatorship regime.
How can the CCP imagine that?”
Wu Fan further remarked that loosening control over
micro-blog sites indicates a division inside the CCP.
It is not only Chinese people that have no trust in the CCP,
but now even party members do not trust the party.
He concluded that the only way to avoid the “Arab Spring”
in China is to end governance by the CCP.
