【新唐人2012年7月5日讯】北京第11届1次全会选出郭金龙担任市委书记后，至此，历时9个月的中共31个省级党委换届，已全部完成。中共最高权力层如何替换，尤其引人关注。有分析指出，“北戴河会议”即使如期完成，也解决不了中共的问题，它所面对的统治危机依然存在。
历时9个多月的中共省级党委换届选举，在7月3号这天画上了句号。大陆31个省、自治区、直辖市中，辽宁省委率先在去年10月中旬进行了党委换届，而北京市委是最后一个，由郭金龙取代刘淇，担任北京市委新书记。
时事评论员林子旭在接受《新唐人》采访时表示，这次换届的31个省市的一把手中，只有刘淇一人没有连任，虽然可以把它解读为是年龄的关系，但是这30比1的局面，确实让刘淇及中共“血债帮”不堪。
林子旭：“其实刘淇下课也是个必然，远的不说，就说今年王立军事件发生以来，刘淇总是和周永康站在一起，行事处处和胡温相左，让这样的人掌控京师重地，胡温是绝对不会答应的，北京市的党代会原定在5月份召开，这一拖就是两个月，其中斗争的激烈可见一斑，胡温也就是铁了心要把刘淇拿掉。”
中共十八大之前的换届选举，一直备受外界瞩目，反响强烈。时事评论员邢天行，分析了其中的原因。
时事评论员 邢天行：“最关键的是，在召开之前，大家都知道薄熙来和王立军这件事情发生之后，高层内斗的消息已经被世界关注了，而且江系也不断的放风，也就是说实际上能不能正常的换届，就在这个换届选举当中，外界都在关注，从这里边去品味一下，江系人马还有胡锦涛这一派，哪一派是得势的，因为它的内幕包的很紧，所以这是人们关注的一个热点。”
而时事评论员任百鸣则表示，省级完成选举，最关键的是“政法委书记不再兼任常委”。
时事评论员 任百鸣：“而是由省级常委的人，去兼任政法委，就是政法委书记不做为一个独立的一个职位，在常委里面占有一席之地了，这个职位被踢出常委了，大量的公安局局长，已经不兼任政法委了，他这样一分权，把政法委的权力分开以后，政法委的权力就被削弱了。”
据了解，中共最高位置的任命，是在“北戴河会议”最终确定，而这次25名政治局委员中至少有15人是新面孔，其中两人有可能在五年内，成为共产党最高职位的有力竞争者。
时政评论家 横河：“北戴河会议是一个比较关键的，就是按照中共自己圈子内部来说的话，北戴河会议是各派摆实力，然后分配位置的一个时机。”
日本《外交家》杂志6月28号发表文章表示，中国大陆最高层的政治关系网在权力交接过程当中，只能产生一个脆弱的联盟，通过谈判和讨价还价勾结在一起。关键的任命不是依赖个人才能，而是政治关系网和不同派系之间的妥协平衡。
横河：“所以说，这是三层意思：第一个，这个省一级的换届这个程序，他不可能去影响到中共十八大里面大的布局﹔第二，十八大之前的这个抢位置摆位置，能不能顺利进行还是一个问题，即使能够顺利进行，他也解决不了中共自己内在的矛盾，和他面对的社会的矛盾，也就是说他的这个危机实际上影响到中共能不能生存的问题，十八大怎么开也解决不了这个问题。”
邢天行认为，新一代的领导班子中，很多人都曾经执行过江泽民的迫害政策，包括郭金龙，虽然外界认为他是胡锦涛的亲信，但是，他也执行了迫害法轮功的政策，所以在新的位置上，他们能不能真正的洗心革面，不再做这些坏事，人们将拭目以待。
采访编辑常春 后制黎安安
Liu Qi Out of Provincial Party Committee Embarrasses Jiang Faction
After Beijing Municipal Party Congress elected
Guo Jinlong (mayor of Beijing)
Secretary of the Beijing Municipal Committee of
the Communist Party of China on Tuesday,
31 Provincial Party Committee general elections that
took place over the past 9 months have concluded.
Reshuffling of the high ranking CCP officials is
of particular concern.
It is suspected that even the upcoming Beidaihe meeting
will not solve the surviving crisis the CCP is facing.
The following is our report.
The 3rd July concluded the CCP Provincial Party
general election over the past 9 months.
Liaoning took the lead in mid-October last year,
Beijing Municipal the last, a total of 31 provinces,
autonomous regions and municipalities underwent
Provincial Party Committee general election.
Guo Jinlong, replacing Liu Qi, became the new
Secretary of the Beijing Municipal Committee.
Commentator Lin Zixu told NTD that Liu Qi is the only one
failed to be re-elected among the 31 provincial party committee elections.
Although it can be understood as this being an age issue,
the 30 to 1 ratio has indeed embarrassed both Liu Qi and the Bloody Debt Gang.
Lin Zixu: “In fact, Liu Qi’s dismissal was inevitable.
Despite the past and taking the recent Wang Lijun incident as an example,
Liu Qi stood by Zhou Yongkang and opposed Hu and Wen.
There is no way Hu and Wen would tolerate
such a person to control the capital.
The Beijing municipal congress was originally
scheduled in May, but delayed for two months.
The fierce struggle within the CCP is evident.
Hu and Wen were determined to remove Liu Qi."
The general election before the 18th National Congress
has drawn attention and caused intense responses.
Commentator Xing Tianxin explains why.
Commentator Xing Tianxin: “The issues are that after
Bo Xilai and Wang Lijun made news headlines,
the intense infighting was exposed, along with Jiang’s
faction purposely exposing information,
whether or not the power transfer will go smoothly
during the 18th National Congress,
people are trying to get a hint from the general election.
That’s the reason why the general election has become
a hot topic.
People want to know who has the power,
the Jiang faction or the Hu faction."
Commentator Ren Baiming, however,
believes the provincial elections signify one critical point;
that is “the Secretary of Politics and Law Commission (PLC)
will no longer serve the Politburo Standing Committee."
Commentator Ren Baiming: “Instead, the provincial
Standing Committee will serve as the Secretary of the PLC.
Therefore, the Secretary of PLC will no longer exist as
an independent post, and does not hold a seat on the Politburo Standing Committee.
Many Public Security Bureau Chiefs will no longer
concurrently hold positions on the Politics and Law Committee.
This separation of power from the Politics and
Law Committee weakens the power of the PLC.”
It is understood that the CCP leadership
will be finalized in the Beidaihe meeting.
Among the 25 Politburo members,
at least 15 of them are new faces,
and two of them may become strong competitors
for CCP leadership in five years time.
Political critic Heng He: “The Beidaihe meeting is the key.
Historically, the Beidaihe meeting is when the power
allocation among factions of the CCP circle will take place."
The Diplomat magazine published an article on 28th June
and stated,
“Political patronage at the top in the leadership transition
process can only produce a fragile coalition,
cobbled together through bargaining and horse-trading.
Key appointments are made not based on
individual competence or proven record,
but on personal loyalty and considerations of
how such appointments can help balance the distribution of power among factions."
Heng He: “It imposes three meanings:
firstly, the provincial level election will not affect
the layout of the 18th National Congress;
secondly, fighting for a seat prior to the
18th National Congress is still questionable;
and thirdly, even if it goes smoothly, the conflict within
the CCP and in society will not get resolved.
The crisis the CCP is facing concerns its survival and
the 18th National Congress will not resolve it."
Xing Tianxin comments that in the new generation of
leadership team,
many of them have executed Jiang Zemin’s persecution policy,
including Guo Jinlong.
Although considered an ally of Hu Jintao, Guo Jinlong
has also implemented the policy to persecute Falun Gong.
At the new post, it is yet to be seen whether or not they will
turn over a new leaf and quit committing the crime.
