【新唐人2012年6月20日讯】5月以来，有关各地楼盘销售火爆的消息越来越多。“购房潮”仿佛重现楼市。专家指出，中共高层因担心房价太高，老百姓起来造反，不得不对房市进行打压，然而长期的房地产市场疲软，内需带动不起来，中国的经济已经进入死胡同，为了保增长，政府放宽银根，却被利益集团利用，又一次投入房地产，成为这次所谓“购房潮”的真正推手。
国家统计局数据显示，5月全国商品住宅成交环比增长16.37%，成交额环比增长19.12%。不过价格并没有上涨，“以价换量”仍是目前市场主流的销售策略。
今年央行连续降低存款准备金率，6月7号，央行三年半以来首次宣布降息。利率调整后，贷款买房的月供将减少，购房者的负担有所减轻。降息进一步降低了刚性需求购房的门槛。
美国南卡罗莱纳大学艾肯商学院教授谢田表示，中共高层为了保增长，放松贷款之后，大笔的钱又进入大型国企及有裙带关系的利益集团手中，而房地产却是这些人瞄准的最容易产生最大利润的地方。
美国南卡罗莱纳大学艾肯商学院教授谢田：“中国现在确实处于进退两难的境地，它不希望房价太高，而让老百姓民怨太沸腾，会起来造反，另一方面他也不希望房市破灭，使他的银行和国企处于破灭的境地。”
谢田指出，实际上中国的经济在放缓，生产率指数在下降，能源消耗在下降，进出口也在减缓，谢田说，在这种经济不景气的情况下，出现这种楼市泡沫对中国经济非常有害。
谢田：“只要它的银根放松，另外一个更大的问题就是通货膨胀可能会加剧，这个也是中共不愿看到的景象，但是我想，房市这个热度如果继续保持这样的话，下一步通货膨胀很可能就会蠢蠢欲动，就会继续往上攀升的。”
谢田说，温家宝每次想把房价压下去，最后都被利益集团拖了下来。
中国著名经济学家茅于轼的助手，北京师范大学MBA导师段绍译也认为，目前这种所谓的“购房潮”，仍然是一种泡沫，他说，政府调控房市是对的，但方式不对。
段绍译：“政府要真正调控市场，就是要让市场回归理性，要让市场资源得到优化的重视，不能用行政干预的做法来调控过去的错误，政府如果要真正的调控的话，第一要小产权合法化，第二让土地私有化。”
一些城市微调了楼市政策，甚至在一定程度上放松了调控。楼市的“价格底”和“政策底”似乎都已形成，不少购房者又开始感到恐慌。
段绍译认为，中国人不理性的投机心理也是造成楼市泡沫的原因之一。
中共喉舌《新华网》发表文章，以所谓“一些人有意误读政策信号希望再次炒高房价”来抑制这次“购房潮”。
国务院发展研究中心金融研究所研究员巴曙松在文章中说，从供求关系看，2011年房地产在建规模达到40亿平方米左右，销售仅10亿平方米左右，供大于求的格局短期不会改变。
采访编辑/刘惠 后制/钟元
China’s Dilemma of “Home Buying Wave”
Since May 2012, China’s real estate market is going up.
the “Home Buying Wave” seems to be coming back.
Experts point out that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP),
fearing people will protest against the high real estate prices, has to curb the real estate market’ prices increase.
However, weak long-term real estate can’t drive the demand,
leading China’s economy to a dead-end.
In order to secure growth, the government had loosened
the policies on investment.
Nevertheless this is again used by interest groups,
to invest in real estate and push up the real estate market.
According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics,
in May, housing turnover increased from 16.37 to 19.12%.
The price did not increase. Curbing the price and encouraging
sales is still the key strategy for the real estate market.
This year, China’s central bank consecutively dropped
the deposit reserve ratio.
On June 7, the central bank announced interest cut
for the first time in three years.
This will help reduce the home buyers’ mortgage burden,
and the rigid requirements for new home buyers.
Professor Xie Tian from University of South Carolina’s
Aiken School of Business analyzed the issue.
Prof. Xie thinks that to promote high growth,
the CCP had loosened investment policies.
Large amounts of money end up in the interest groups’hands.
Real estate is the area targeted for highest profits.
Prof. Xie Tian: “China is in a dilemma
[on the real estate market issue].
On one hand, it does not want housing prices to be high,
in fear of people’s dissatisfaction and potential protests;
on the other, it does not want the housing market to collapse,
which would destroy its banking and state-owned enterprises.”
Prof. Xie also pointed out that China’s economy
is in fact slowing down.
Production ratio, energy consumption,
and import and export are declining.
In this situation, the housing bubble can be very harmful
to the economy of China.
Prof. Xie Tian: “If banks get loose, inflation might get worse.
The CCP does not want this to happen.
I think if the housing market continues to heat up,
inflation might go even higher.”
Prof. Xie said that each time Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao
tries to curb housing prices, interest groups would obstruct it.
Duan Shaoyi, lecturer at Bejing Normal University MBA,
and an assistant of China’ renowned economist Mao Yushi,
also thinks the current “Home Buying Wave” is still a bubble.
The government is right to control the housing market,
but it is doing it the wrong way, the expert thinks.
Duan Shaoyi: “The government needs to guide the market
towards getting it back to normal.
It should optimize the use of market resources,
not correcting past mistakes by exercising control over it.
It should first legalize property rights,
and then privatize lands.”
Some cities have slightly adjusted housing market,
and in certain way of loosing its control;
The bottom line of prices and policy seem had formed,
many home buyers are starting to worry.
Duan Shaoyi thinks people’s irrational investing mentality
is also a reason for the housing bubble.
The site xinghua.net, CCP’s mouthpiece, published an article,
in support of curbing the “Home Buying Wave.”
It said, “Some people intentionally misrepresent policies,
with the hope to increase the home prices.”
In this article, Ba Shusong, Research Fellow at State Council’
Development Research Center of Finances talks on the issue from the perspective of supply and demand.
Ba states that of the 4 billion square meters real estate,
built in 2011, only 1billion was sold.
Thus the ratio of supply and demand
does not seem feasible to change in the near future.
