【新唐人2012年6月9日讯】当年文革期间“上山下乡”的知识青年，将在中共十八大全面上位。在目前的中共高层中，习近平、李克强、李源潮、令计划等都有过类似经历。外媒认为，“上山下乡”的经历，势必给中共政坛注入不同的元素，彻底改变政治生态。不过，政论专家指出，这种幻想不够实际，因为任何人到了中共这个系统都会“变坏”，只有解体这个系统才能改变中国。
香港《东方日报》报导，在中共十八大后，中国这艘巨轮由当年“文革期间上山下乡的知青”掌舵，他们“上山下乡”的经历，势必给中共政坛注入不同的元素，彻底改变政治生态。
《东方日报》认为，这些“知青”当年与广大农民及农场职工风雨同舟、患难与共的这段岁月，已融进他们的血液。他们一旦掌握国柄，势必对现在的政坛产生一定的冲击。
不过，这种论调，时事评论家横河不能认同。
时事评论家横河：“我当然不认同了。当年共产党第一代打江山的还是农民出身呢！他这个系统是坏的，所以任何人进去以后，都是身不由己的，不管是你是好的还是坏的。如果你是好的，就会被淘汰掉或者变坏掉，如果你是坏的，在里面如鱼得水。”
横河指出，当年“文革”结束以后，有些人想改变中国而加入中共，最后都被共产党改变，变坏掉了。
而有人认为，即将掌权的太子党是不是当过知青？有没有上山下乡吃苦的经历，都与能不能为老百姓服务“没有关系”。
“旧金山中国民主教育基金会”会长林牧晨表示，现在太子党在中国极有权势，但他们比较普遍的思想是，这个“红色江山”是他们父辈打下来的，所以他们理当“做江山”。
林牧晨：“普遍的来说，这些干部子弟，也就是我们所说的太子党，你要想他们因为吃过一点苦就为老百姓谋利益，恐怕这个很难。因为现在中共统治阶层里面，它根本就是完全是为了权势，为了特权阶级永远霸占权利，毫无节制的获得他们的利益。这已经成为一个普遍的风气。”
《东方日报》也承认，中国目前正处于贫富分化、官民对立、地区差别大等不定时炸弹的局势下，因此外界正在关注有“知青经历”的“中共第五代”，如何撑扶即将倾倒的大厦。
媒体评论认为，从近几年温家宝大谈政治改革可以得到两个重要讯息就是：中共体制存在着严重的、危及社会的问题，而此问题惟有通过政治改革的民主方式解决。最近薄熙来事件暴露出来的内幕，足以说明中国的困境和危险。
《大纪元时报》评论指出，上世纪90年代，中国就流传“改革亡党，不改革亡国”的说法。20年过去后，今天的中共政权与当年大清朝末期极其相似：国库已空、无官不贪、贫富巨差、无处不拆、官民对立、民怨极大、天灾人祸等，眼看政权崩溃在即。
前中共总书记胡耀邦智囊阮铭向《新唐人》表示，中共内部一直有“自由派”和“专制派”之间的争斗，但是，中国未来的路还要靠人民自己。
阮铭：“像李克强、习近平他们将来会走什么路，那我想也不决定他们自己了，还要决定于整个的环境，比如说民众的反抗力量，民众的觉悟，还要看国际上的力量。”
阮铭认为，现在中国已经到了破晓的时刻了，共产党不改变就会完蛋。如果国内、国外的民主力量结合在一起，路就会走的比较好。
而横河也表示，在共产党这个以暴力破坏为主的体系面前，没有人能够改它，只有解体它，才能改变中国。
采访/梁欣 编辑/宋风 后制/李若琳
“Educated Youths” in Power After CCP 18th Session.
Will They Change the Political Arena?
“Educated Youths”, who had experience “on the mountains
and in the countryside” during the Cultural Revolution,
will get power in the 18th session of
the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Many high-level CCP officials such as Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang,
Li Yuanchao and Ling Jihua have similar experiences.
Foreign media think that their experiences
“on the mountains and in the countryside” are bound
to add different elements into the CCP political arena
and completely change the political environment.
However, political commentators point out that
this idea is not practical.
Any person will deteriorate
when he or she joins the CCP system.
Only by disintegrating this system
will China be able to change.
Hong Kong’s Oriental Daily News reported that
after the CCP 18th session,
the large ship of China will be steered
by those “Educated Youths.”
Those with experiences “on the mountains
and in the countryside” during the Cultural Revolution.
Their experiences “on the mountains and in the countryside”
are bound to add different elements into the CCP’s political
arena, and completely change the political environment.
Oriental Daily News said that in those years when
the “Educated Youths” conquered difficulties together
with the majority of farmers and farm workers,
these experiences have melted into their blood.
Once they hold power over the country, it is bound to
have some impact in the current political arena.
However, commentator Heng He said that such
an argument is not acceptable.
Heng He: “Of course, I don’t agree with it.
The first generation members of CCP, who seized
political power, were originally farmers. The system of the CCP is bad.
Therefore, anyone who joins it will be beyond
his or her own control, whether you are good or bad.
If you are good, you will be eliminated
or become deteriorated.
If you are bad, you will be like a duck in water.”
Heng He pointed out that after the end of the “Cultural
Revolution",
some people who wanted to change China and joined the CCP,
were all changed by the CCP. They deteriorated.
Some people said it has nothing to do with whether
they will serve for the people.
It does not matter whether the princelings who will be in
power were “Educated Youths” or not,
nor whether they had bitter experiences
“on the mountains and in the countryside”.
Lin Muchen, President of “San Francisco Chinese
Democracy Education Foundation” commented.
The princelings are very powerful in China.
However, a very common idea for them is that
“Red Power” was formed from their parents’ fight.
So they think they should certainly have the country’s power.
Lin Muchen: “Generally speaking, these children of cadres,
whom we call princelings, if you want to them to work
for the people’s interests just because they had a little bitter
experience, I am afraid it is very difficult for them to do so.
In the current CCP ruling class,
they are simply for power.
The privileged class always hold power
and gaining their interests unrestrainedly.
This has already become a common ethos.”
Oriental Daily News also acknowledged that China is now
in a situation of a ticking time bomb.
The rich-poor divide, conflicts between officials and public,
and large regional differences.
The outside world is wondering how the fifth CCP generation
with “Educated Youth experiences” will support the building of the CCP, which is about to collapse.
Some media comment that there are two important messages
from Wen Jiabao’s speeches of political reform in recent years.
There are serious problems threatening
the society in the CCP regime.
Only through political reform and democratic ways,
can these problems be resolved.
Recently, the inside stories exposed in the Bo Xilai incident
are enough to illustrate this plight and danger.
“The Epoch Times" commented that there
was a saying in the 1990s.
“With political reform, the CCP will end;
without political reform, China will end.”
In the past 20 years, the current CCP regime
is very similar to the late Qing Dynasty.
The treasury is empty, and corrupt officials are everywhere.
The gap between the rich and the poor is huge,
and house demolitions are everywhere.
The public strongly oppose the officials,
and people’s grievances are huge.
Natural disasters and human accidents frequently happen.
It seems that the collapse of the CCP
regime is just around the corner.
Ruan Ming, think tank of former CCP General
Secretary Hu Yaobang, spoke with NTD.
There are always struggles between the “liberals”
and the “authoritarian faction” within CCP.
However, the road of China’s future
depends on the people themselves.
Ruan Ming: “Take Li Keqing and Xi Jinping for example,
what road they will take, I think, will not be decided
by themselves, but depend on the entire situation.
With such things as the people’s resistance forces,
the consciousness of the public, and the international forces.”
Ruan Ming believes that China has now come
up to the moment of dawn.
The CCP will go to the end if it does not change.
If the domestic and foreign democratic forces
combine together, it will go well.
Heng He also said that when faced with the CCP system,
which mainly destructs things with violence, no one can change it.
Only by disintegrating it will China be able to change.
