【新唐人2012年5月23日讯】王立军逃亡美领馆，将中共内斗全面分裂的政治丑闻，向国际社会曝光。目前已导致薄熙来垮台，周永康面临落马。当局对王立军如何判罪，成为人们关注的焦点。日前香港一份有影响力的英文媒体报导，王立军案下月将在四川成都审理，罪名可能是“叛国罪”，且可能会被处以死刑。但分析认为，王立军被判死刑的可能性不大，最高“无期徒刑”。接下来请看专家的分析解读。
星期一发行的《南华早报》引述知情人士的话说，中央成立了专案组，可能在下个月开庭审理王立军案件，他将以“叛国罪”受到审判。消息人士说，对王立军的审判将会秘密进行，如果罪名成立，王立军可能被判处死刑。
对此，时事评论员夏小强认为，王立军被判死刑的可能性不大，最高是无期徒刑。
时事评论员夏小强：“因为王立军出走美国领馆，他把中共高层的分裂和内幕暴露在世界，同时，也使美国政府有史以来，有机会介入中共高层内部，并在其中发挥一定作用。向美方提供了他掌控的内幕和机密，他这样做的目地就是为了保命。”
2月13号，习近平访美期间，美国媒体传出王立军的爆料，指称：周永康为延续在中共十八大之后的权力，拟定了一个完整攻击习近平的计划，并且将在隔年的新年过后实施。
计划是，透过海外媒体，释放出对习近平的各种指责和批判，削弱习近平的权力，然后帮助薄熙来接任政法委书记。在薄熙来掌握武警、公安系统后，时机许可时，强迫习近平交权，预计2014年前，将已接任中共总书记的习近平赶下台，甚至在必要时逮捕习近平。
夏小强：“这就证明了美国手中是有料的，再加上美国政府在处理王立军事件时，因为没有给王立军庇护而受到外界和国会质疑，从这一点上来讲，中共迫于美方的压力，判王立军死刑的可能性不大。”
曾任沈阳市公安局副局长、司法局局长兼党委书记的韩广生，与王立军熟悉。韩广生接受《自由亚洲电台》专访时表示，王立军跑到美国驻成都领事馆，无论什么理由，都是不能被中共所理解和谅解的。他让中共在全世界面前，尤其在意识形态的敌人面前，丢了大脸，令中共恼羞成怒，所以他不可能被饶恕。
时事评论员史达则表示，王立军本来应该判死罪，因为他开启了一个躲领馆的浪潮，这违反中共的家法帮规，一般会被“杀一儆百”。但因为王立军，才扯出了薄熙来案子，王也算是戴罪立功。
时事评论员史达：“在被胡温控制下，他（王立军）一定反戈一击有功，他把周薄所谓的坏事情，全部给抖出来，但是他一定给胡温提出一个条件，这个条件就是要保命。最主要的是，其实王立军是个活证人，活口证人，有他的存在，就可以把薄熙来跟周永康他们的罪行定罪，那么保住他，就是周永康以后永远会被胡温攥在手心里。”
《南华早报》还表示，中共中央领导层期望年底“十八大”举行前，先处理好薄熙来、谷开来和王立军的案件，原因是，薄熙来的下台引发外界对中共高层分裂的无穷揣测。
夏小强：“其实大家都知道，薄熙来案件不是胡温习当局的最后目标，对胡温习现在最大的挑战和压力，是如何处理周永康、以及处理周永康之后有可能带来的震荡，胡温习在十八大之前，不仅仅是要处理完周永康，而且要完成胡温这届政府和江泽民血债帮罪行的完全切割。”
独立评论员洪剑认为，抽丝剥茧可能更符合胡温的风格。也就是“温火煮江蛤蟆”。
独立评论员洪剑：“胡温当前最需要做的就是彻底清除血债派，彻底与血债派罪行切割。血债派经过这么多年的经营，势力盘根错节，清除还是需要时间的。”
但夏小强分析，如果在下个月就给王立军案下结论，说明中共高层他们要加紧与周永康和江泽民血债帮的完全切割，同时，习近平这届新政府也不再延续迫害法轮功政策，可能他们感到对时间的紧迫，要加紧整个行动的节奏。
采访编辑/常春/后制/萧宇
Analysts: Wang Lijun Faces Treason Charge:
Death Penalty or Life Sentence?
Wang Lijun fled to the U.S. Consulate and
exposed Chinese Communist Party (CCP) infighting.
This exposed a political scandal to the world.
It triggered the downfall of Bo Xilai and also perhaps
Zhou Yongkang’s dismissal.
It is becoming a public concern about what the
authorities will do with Wang.
Hong Kong media report that Wang would stand trial for
treason next month in Chengdu, Sichuan Province.
Wang could face the death penalty.
Analysts said that Wang could hardly be sentenced
to death, but could receive a life sentence.
On Monday, South China Morning Post cited inside sources
saying the central regime set up a task force.
They may put Wang on trial for treason next month.
The sources said that the trial would take place secretly,
and Wang might be sentenced to death if found guilty.
Xia Xiaoqiang, current affairs commentator thinks it is
unlikely Wang would be sentenced to death. It will be likely to be life imprisonment at most.
Xia Xiaoqiang: “Wang Lijun fled to the U.S. consulate,
and had the CCP split-up, and its inside stories exposed.
Meanwhile, it gave the U.S. government the first ever
opportunity to interfere in the high-levels of the CCP, and have an influence.
By providing the U.S. with these confidential facts,
Wang’s purpose was to protect his life.”
On Feb.13, during Xi Jinping’s visit to the U.S.,
U.S. media reported the Wang incident.
In order to grasp power after the 18th Congress,
Zhou Yongkang planned a military coup against Xi Jinping.
It would take effect after this new year.
Zhou’s plan was to spread rumors via overseas media,
criticizing Xi and weakening Xi’s power.
He would then support Bo to take over as Political
and Legislative Affairs Committee Secretary.
Once Bo controlled the Armed Police and Public Security,
he would take the chance to force Xi to step down.
They also planned to remove Xi Jinping before 2014,
who would then be CCP General Secretary. If necessary, they would arrest him.
Xia Xiaoqiang: “This proves that the U.S. has
documents in hands.
In addition, the U.S. government was questioned
by Congress about refusing Wang Lijun’s asylum.
On this point, under the pressure from the U.S., the CCP
will be unlikely to charge Wang with the death penalty.”
Han Guangsheng, former Shenyang Vice Chief of Police,
is familiar with Wang Lijun.
Han told Radio Free Asia that whatever reason Wang fled
to the U.S. consulate, the CCP won’t accept it.
Wang exposed the CCP to the world, particularly making
it lose face in front of it’s enemy (the U.S.).
The CCP is furious and won’t forgive him.
Commentator Shi Da said that Wang should be charged
with the death penalty.
As he set an example of fleeing to the consulate,
this is against CCP domestic rules.
Generally, the CCP rule is “kill one to warn others”.
However, because Wang triggered the Bo Xilai affair,
Wang’s achievement could reduce his crimes.
Shi Da: “Under Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao’s control,
Wang disclosed Zhou Yongkang and Bo Xilai’s corruption.
However, Wang would request a condition to Hu-Wen,
to secure his life.
The most important thing is, Wang is a live witness;
with his presence, Bo and Zhou can be charged.
To keep Wang alive, Zhou will be in
Hu-Wen’s hands forever.”
South China Morning Post also said that central regime
leaders hoped to deal with Bo, Gu Kailai and Wang Lijun well before the 18th Congress.
This is because Bo’s downfall has aroused outsider
speculation about CCP infighting.
Xia Xiaoqiang: “As we all know, dealing with the Bo case
isn’t Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao and Xi Jinping’s final goal.
The biggest challenge and pressure for them is how to deal
with Zhou Yongkang, and what influence this could have.
Before the 18th Congress, Hu, Wen and Xi not only need
to deal with Zhou.
They also need to draw a clear line with
Jiang Zemin’s “Bloody Faction”.
Independent commentator Hong Jian believes that making
a painstaking investigation is more like Hu-Wen’s style.
That is to “Slowly boil the frog (indicating Jiang Zemin).”
Hong Jian: “At present, the highest priority for Hu-Wen
is to completely eliminate the ‘Bloody Faction’.
To completely separate from the Bloody Faction’s crimes.
The Bloody Faction’s forces are complicated, and operated
over many years, so it takes time to be eliminated.”
Xia Xiaoqiang analyzed that if the Wang case has a result
next month, it indicates high-level CCP leaders have
stepped up the separation between themselves
and Jiang’s Bloody Faction.
Meanwhile, Xi Jinping’s new era won’t continue the
persecution policy towards Falun Gong.
It is possible that they sensed their time is up,
and must be hurry to take action.
