【新唐人2012年2月14日讯】重庆副市长王立军逃亡美国领事馆寻求庇护事件持续发酵，西方媒体多以“政治丑闻”来形容。目前，薄熙来的处境岌岌可危，中纪委已对王立军、薄熙来贪赃枉法展开全面调查。中共将对薄熙来、王立军案如何处置，引起海内外关注，同时激发中共高层派系权力斗争白热化。
《博讯网》消息披露，中共9名政治局常委和江泽民等达成一致意见，同意对薄熙来和王立军进行调查，并尽快给外界一个交代，希望在3月的“两会”期间就有调查结果。
消息指出，目前，王立军正在被调查他进入美领馆的所谓企图“叛逃”。
美国“哥伦比亚大学”政治学博士王军涛表示，中共高层的分歧不在于是否调查，而在于如何处置薄熙来、王立军。
王军涛：“现在如果王立军已经走到这一步，我觉得根本这九名常委，江泽民谁也不能再说不调查，王立军说他出走原因是为了检举薄熙来、躲避薄熙来追杀，这两个问题他必须调查，因为王立军出走成都美领馆这事，已经使得他们不得不调查了。”
美国“哥伦比亚大学”政治学博士李天笑表示，作为一名太子党高官，薄熙来贪赃枉法的规模，远比陈良宇案、陈希同案大的多，堪称中共有史至今爆发的最大贪腐案，而且影响牵连甚广。
李天笑：“薄熙来的问题实际上直接是跟周永康有关，周永康施行的是一种镇压民众、包括六四、法轮功问题，他想持续这种迫害政策，那么，薄熙来恰恰是他认为最好的能够接替他的、能够秉承他的镇压政策的最好人选。”
《博讯网》消息，即将上台的习近平，不会像当初江泽民那样修理前北京书记陈希同，也不会学习胡锦涛对付前上海书记陈良宇，预计薄熙来最坏的结果是政治生命结束，而王立军被追究刑责在所难免。
外界分析，这显然是江派释放的处置薄熙来、王立军的方案，企图丢卒自保，不追究薄熙来贪赃枉法了事，但胡温不见得会买账。
李天笑：“有三股力量要搞他，至少有三股力量：第一股胡温，从当初把他贬发到西南边远地区，实际上就不想让他再回去，让他自生自灭了。再有他在所谓的‘打黑’过程中，又通过李庄案得罪了北京律师事务所彭真的儿子等一些太子党人物。另外，一些老干部比方说乔石等等这一股原来已经退出江湖的这批人，实际上也是不满，对他老爹不满。”
温家宝日前表示，“任期最后一年能做的事绝不拖延”，表明胡温当局最后冲刺的姿态。
美国“乔治梅森大学”教授章天亮指出，江泽民衰老重病，已快死了，十八大江派常委面临退休下台，而且个个贪腐缠身。从江提拨的三大军头郭伯雄、徐才厚、李继耐最近表态力挺胡锦涛权威，显示江派大势已去。
章天亮：“和当时中央军委两个副主席表态连起来看的话，你会发现，这中间它是有必然的联系的；然后就是在2月2号时候，王立军被免除了公安局长的职务，所以我想胡锦涛在之前他已经做了准备，如果他已经做了准备，箭在弦上我相信是不能不发的。我认为薄熙来下台的可能性蛮大的，而对于他来说，如果不能体面下台，一定意味着进监狱。”
外界分析指出，薄熙来、王立军案如何处置牵动中共各个派系，但很难大案化小，而且，桀傲不驯的薄熙来也有可能狗急跳墙，未来事态发展难料。重庆事件将给中共十八大权力洗牌和重组带来重大变数。
新唐人记者常春、李元翰、李月采访报导。
Jiang’s Group Disposes of Bo and Wang, but Hu and Wen Might Not Agree
The incident of Chongqing Vice Mayor Wang Lijun’s fleeing
to the U.S. Consulate for asylum continues to simmer.
Many western media refer it as a"political scandal."
Currenly Bo Xilai is in a precarious situation.
Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s Central Commission for
Discipline Inspection has started a full investigation of Wang Lijun and Bo Xilai’s corrupt conduct.
How will the CCP dispose of Bo Xilai and Wang Lijun has
attracted attention from overseas.
This incident has heated up the CCP’s senior
officials’ power struggle.
According to boxun.com, the nine CCP Politburo Standing
Committee members and Jiang Zemin reached a consensus agreement
to investigate Bo and Wang, and provide an explanation
as soon as possible to the outside world,
hoping to have a result during the “two sessions" in March.
Accordingly Wang is being investigated for his so-called
attempt to “defect” by entering the U.S. Consulate.
Columbia University Ph.D. in political science Wang Juntao
said the differences of the CCP leadership,
are not about whether to investigate, but about how to
dispose of Bo Xilai and Wang Lijun.
Wang Juntao: “Wang Lijun has come this far.
None of the nine Standing Committee members and
Jiang Zemin can refuse to investigate.
Wang Lijun claims he escaped to report Bo Xilai and to
avoid being killed by Bo. They must investigate.
Wang’s escape to U.S. Consulate has
forced them to investigate.”
Columbia University Ph.D. in political science Li Tianxiao
hasindicated that as a CCP senior official’s descendant,
the scale of Bo Xilai’s corruption is much larger than that of
Chen Liangyu and Chen Xitong.
This is the largest corruption case in CCP history,
and will have a very far-reaching impact.
Li Tianxiao: “Bo Xilai’s issue is directly with Zhou Yongkang,
who carries out the policy of repression.
Such as on the issues of the June 4th incident and the
persecution of Falun Gong.
Zhou thinks Bo Xilai is the best candidate to take up
his position and to adhere to his policy of repression."
According to boxun.com, the upcoming CCP leader Xi
Jinping will not be like Jiang Zemin who punished the former
Beijing party secretary Chen Xitong, nor will he deal with the
former Shanghai party secretary Chen Liangyu like Hu Jintao.
It is estimated that the worst result for Bo Xilai will be
the end of his political life.
While it is inevitable that Wang Lijun shall be held
criminally liable.
According to external analysis, this is how Jiang’s team wants
to dispose of Bo Xilai and Wang Lijun.
They will attempt to throw out the soldier to protect themselves,
and will not pursue Bo Xilai’s corruption crimes.
However, Hu Jitao and Wen Jiabao will not necessarily
agree on this.
Li Tianxiao: “There are at least three forces against Bo Xilai.
Firstly there are Hu and Wen, who demoted him to the remote
area in the southwest. They do not want him back.
During Bo’s so-called “anti-underground" movement,
he offended many CCP senior officials’ descendants in the “Li Zhuang Case.”
In addition, some of the CCP senior veterans, such as Qiao Shi,
are not happy with Bo Xilai or his father.”
Wen Jiabao said recently, that “He will not delay anything
during the last year of his reign.”
It shows that Hu and Wen want to charge forward at the
end of their reign.
U.S. George Mason University professor Zhang Tianliang
pointed out that, with Jiang Zemin severely sick and dying,
his team retiring from the CCP Politburo Standing Committee
during the 18th CCP Congress, and each of them having
serious corruption issues.
The three major generals Guo Boxiong, Xu Caihou, Li Jinai,
have recently expressed support for Hu Jintao’s authority.
Jiang’s team has lost its power.
Zhang Tianliang: “There is a link in the recent announcements
of the two Central Military Committee vice chairmen.
On February 2, Wang Lijun was exempt from his position
as head of the Public Security Bureau.
I think Jintao has prepared for this.
If that is the case, it is impossible for him not to
shoot the arrow out.
I think there is a large possibility that Bo Xilai
will step down.
If he cannot step down, he will end up in prison.
External analysis points out that how to dispose of Bo Xilai
and Wang Lijun is affecting various factions of the CCP.
It is difficult to turn this into a minor event.
Also, the unruly Bo Xilai may fight back.
So any future developments are unpredictable.
The Chongqing events have brought important variables
to the CCP and its 18th Congress’ power reshuffle.
NTD reporters Chang Chun, Li Yuanhan and Li Yue
