【新唐人2012年2月4日讯】伊朗核武器问题引发的伊朗与欧美国家间的危机正在加深。美国国会通过一项新的制裁法案，试图切断伊朗的石油出口，欧盟也达成协议，将从7月开始对伊朗石油实行全面禁运。伊朗当局则封锁霍尔木兹海峡作为回应，这一地区发生军事冲突的危险也一天天加剧。
伊朗作为中国第三大原油供应国，大约每天50万桶，一旦失去伊朗的石油进口则是对中国能源供给的直接冲击。不过，随着欧美明确表示对伊朗进行经济制裁后，对中共政府是个不小考验。
美国财政部长盖特纳在1月上旬访问北京时，要求中国停止进口伊朗原油，中共政府公开拒绝了这一要求。
在中国访问的德国总理默克尔2月2号也表示，希望中国在制裁伊朗方面态度积极。不过，温家宝则声称，制裁不可能从根本上解决伊朗核问题，动武更将造成中东和世界局势动荡，对各方都不利。
欧洲议会全会2月2号通过了制裁伊朗决议，但决议文本说：欧洲议会对中国拒绝支持联合国安理会对伊朗制裁，表示遗憾。
国际时事评论员文昭：“从中国的能源安全角度来讲，不希望中东发生大的变故，它既不希望伊朗发展核武器，也不希望西方制裁伊朗。不制裁伊朗还有其他方面的考虑，因为中共一直想在中东发展影响力，那么伊朗是它打的一张牌。”
文昭表示，伊朗核计划是中共外交上可以利用的一张牌，如果伊朗核问题解决了，中共在伊朗的这张牌上就没有价值了。如果强硬支持伊朗，又会招致世界反对，对它更不利。所以，中共在伊朗核问题上进退两难。
伊朗与世界和平主旋律格格不入，不惜与全世界交恶，但是中共却屡屡在政治上予以声援，一直反对对伊朗实施单边制裁。
“北大教授”孔庆东道出了原因，他说：伊朗是境外最后能够支持中共的根据地。
文昭：“中共政权是对现有国际秩序的挑战者、颠覆者，它是想改变现有的国际趋势。但是基于暂时的利益需要，它需要和世界上其他主要的国家合作，它需要在一定程度上接受现有的国际秩序。”
不过，美国“克莱蒙麦肯纳学院”教授裴敏欣认为，北京的实用主义者知道，以色列由于内部的政治压力，极可能会对伊朗的核设施实施先发制人的攻击，西方采取的制裁伊朗可能是唯一能替代以色列军事行动的举措。因此北京会采取新中间路线，将继续反对西方的石油禁运建议。北京在这个危险的核戏剧中，几乎没有别的牌可以打。
2月2号，欧洲议会议员对伊朗发出了警告，伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡可能导致地区冲突，将“招致国际社会的报复”。
据国际能源署预测，中国对石油进口依赖度有可能升至80%。
中共媒体也说，中国40%的进口原油是来自海湾地区，如果海湾地区石油供应中断的话，以目前的石油储备，中国只能坚持46天。所以如果打一场200天的战争，那么对中国来说，影响是非常非常巨大的，中国或成为伊朗石油危机中的最大输家。
新唐人记者刘惠、宋风、周天采访报导。
China Possible Biggest Loser in Iranian Oil Crisis.
The Iran nuclear issue has deepened the crisis between Iran,
EU and the US.
U.S. Congress passed a new sanction bill,
attempting to cut off Iran’s oil exports.
The EU also reached an agreement to impose a full
embargo on Iranian oil from this July.
In response, the Iran regime blocked the Strait of Hormuz.
The region faces increasing risk of military conflict.
As the 3rd largest crude oil supplier for China,
Iran exports about 500,000 barrels a day.
The termination of oil import from Iran will be a direct hit
on China’s energy supplies.
The economic sanctions against Iran, initiated by the EU
and US, are no small challenge to the CCP regime.
U.S. Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, asked China to
stop oil imports from Iran during his Beijing visit in early Jan.
CCP authorities openly denied the request.
On Feb 2, German Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke of this
issue in her visit to China.
She hoped sanctions against Iran were treated positively.
Yet CCP Premier Wen Jiabao claimed that the sanctions
cannot fundamentally resolve the Iranian nuclear issue.
Wen said the use of force will cause instability in the Middle
East and in the world, which is bad for all concerned parties.
A resolution of sanctions against Iran was passed by a
European Parliamentary plenary session on February 2.
The parliament said in the resolution:
“[Members] regret the ongoing refusal of China and Russia
in the UN Security Council to support sanctions against Iran.”
Wen Zhao, Commentator on international affairs:
“From the perspective of China’s energy security, it doesn’t
want to see a big change happen in the Middle East.
It neither hopes Iran develops nuclear weapons,
nor wants to see the West’s sanctions against Iran.
There are more factors involving CCP blocks from
sanctioning Iran.
The CCP regime has long wanted to be influential in the
Middle East. Iran is a card that it plays in politics."
Wen Zhao reasons that Iran’s nuclear program is a card
for the CCP to utilize in diplomacy.
If the Iranian nuclear issue is resolved, the card of Iran will
lose value for the CCP regime.
While if it gives hard-line support for Iran, it will incur world
opposition, which is more unfavorable to the regime.
That is to say, the CCP regime has fallen into a dilemma
over the Iranian nuclear issue.
Iran’s acts are sharply incongruous with the world’s
peace theme.
It even spares no cost in becoming enemy to the world.
However, the CCP regime repeatedly gives support
politically, and unilaterally refused sanctions against Iran.
The reason behind this was found from a talk of Kong
Qingdong, Professor from Peking University.
Iran is the last base area overseas that could support
the CCP, according to Kong.
Wen Zhao: “The CCP regime is a challenger and is
subversive towards the existing international order.
The regime wants to change the current international trends.
But in order to satisfy its temporary interests, it needs to
cooperate with other major countries.
It has to accept the existing international order,
to a certain extent.”
Minxin Pei, Professor at Claremont McKenna College,
gives his interpretation on the issue.
Beijing’s pragmatists know Israel will likely initiate attacks
on Iran’s nuclear facilities under internal political pressure.
The West’s sanctions against Iran may be the only measure
to replace Israel’s military operations, according to Pei.
In this context, the Beijing regime will take a new central
course.
That is, continuously opposing the West’s oil embargo
proposal.
Pei said that in this dangerous nuclear drama,
Beijing has no other cards to play.
On Feb 2, the European Parliament warned Iran.
Iran’s block of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger regional
conflicts.
The acts would “incur the revenge of the international
community".
The International Energy Agency forecasts that China’s
dependence on oil imports may rise to 80%.
CCP media said 40% of China’s imported crude oil
comes from the Gulf region.
If the oil supply from the Gulf region is disrupted,
China’s existing oil reserves can only last for 46 days.
If China gets involved in a 200-day war, the impact would
be enormously huge.
In this case, China may become the biggest loser
in the Iranian oil crisis.
NTD reporters Liu Hui, Song Feng and Zhou Tian
