【新唐人2012年1月21日讯】中共总理温家宝首次正面回应“阿拉伯之春”，他说：要尊重各国人民要求变革的诉求。他也强调，任何动荡都有其内因和外因，但内因还是主要的。学者指出，温家宝看到中共将灭亡的趋势，想促进政改，延长中共的命，但他办不到。
18号，温家宝在杜哈举行的记者招待会上表示，要尊重各国人民要求变革和维护自身利益的诉求，因为历史归根结底是人民创造的，任何政府的责任都是为人民谋利益，除了这一点以外，政府不应该有任何特权。
温家宝在“阿拉伯之春”问题上的表态，是中共高层首次，也是唯一的一次表态。
“阿拉伯之春”是指：自2010年年底在北非和一些阿拉伯国家发生的“反独裁政府运动”，运动导致突尼斯的本•阿里政权、埃及穆巴拉克政权、利比亚卡扎菲政权先后被推翻。目前这场运动仍在发酵。
美国“南加州大学”公共政策博士叶科认为，温家宝的这种表态，一是为了与中东新政权交往的需要，二是面对国内尖锐矛盾的局势无路可走，所以他想通过改革来维护中共统治，而对老百姓有所让步，但仍想把主权抓在自己手里。
叶科：“即使温家宝这样一个表态，他最后在中共党内体制当中，最后都可能不了了之，甚至温家宝也处于被攻击的对像。中国体制的力量，压制性的这样一个趋势，是温家宝个人无法改变的。”
“纽约城市大学”政治学教授夏明认为，既得利益集团绑架了国家的政策，对老百姓的疾苦越来越漠视。虽然温家宝看到了中国的政治体制不变革，未来中国社会将发生冲突、动荡，甚至中共政权崩溃，但他无能为力。
夏明： “中国的政治改革的一个最根本的障碍是，胡锦涛没有改革的动力和改革的新思维。他目前的一些办法全是在中国﹙共﹚专制集权体制下学会的政工干部的老办法。对于温家宝来说显然是很不幸的，他想改革的话，都是跟中共最高的人物——胡锦涛直接相左的。”
温家宝的“政改论”已经提及了多次，去年9月，他高调倡议政治改革和党政分开，并且改革党和国家的领导制度，但没有得到其他党内高层的呼应。
对此，夏明表示，目前在海外甚至在国内，有越来越多的人认识到，不解体中共一党专制，中国不会有前途。所以，在国内外掀起了一个“反对党”的运动。
但是，叶科认为，还有比组建“反对党”更好的办法。
叶科：“退党可以说是最和平、最理性也是最有效的办法。因为中共能够依靠的就是共产党的一套系统，如果大家都不去追随他，他所有的指令没法执行下去。中共到时想镇压老百姓他也镇压不下去。”
不过，夏明指出，中共党内的矛盾复杂、斗争激烈，未来中共可以牺牲一个人，来满足老百姓渴望惩治贪官的要求。所以，目前温家宝处在非常危难的一个境地。
也有学者指出，近年来，温家宝在不同场合数十次呼吁政改，相反的，中共对政治异见者的打压却较以前有过之而无不及，因此温家宝的呼吁，可能只是在政治舞台的最后岁月想留个好名声而已。
新唐人记者常春、宋风、周天采访报导。
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Wen Jiabao praises Arab Spring Uprising,
urges political reform
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Premier Wen Jiabao first
directly responded to the “Arab Spring".
He said: “We should respect the people’s aspirations in each
nation for change.”
He also stressed that any instability has its internal and
external causes, but the internal cause is major.
Scholars point out that Wen Jiabao sees the trend of CCP’s
demise and wants to promote political reform,
Hoping to extend CCP’s life, but he could not make it happen.
On January 18th, Wen Jiabao spoke during the
press conference in Doha.
He said that we should respect the peoples’ aspirations in
each nation for change and for protecting their own interests.
Because history is ultimately created by the people, the
Government’s responsibility is to pursue peoples’ interests
Other than this, the government should not have
any privileges.
Wen Jiabao’s declaration on the issue of “Arab Spring" is the
first time from CCP’s high-level officials. And it is the only time so far.
“Arab Spring" refers to: the end of 2010, “anti-dictatorship
movements" happened in some North Africa, Arab countries.
The movements led to the overthrow of Ben Ali’s regime in
Tunisia, Mubarak’s regime in Egypt.
Followed by Gaddafi’s regime in Libya. At present, the
movement is still fermenting.
Dr. Ye Ke, at Public Policy Division of “University of Southern
California", says Wen Jiabao’s declaration has two points;
One: the need to communicate with new regime in Middle East.
Two: no way to face a domestic situation of direct opposites.
He wants to maintain CCP’s rule through reform, giving some
concessions to the people.
But he still tries to grasp the sovereignty in its own hands.
Ye Ke: “Even with such a position from Wen Jiabao, in the end,
it may come to nothing in the end in the system of CCP.
Even Wen Jiabao will be attacked. As for the CCP regime,
he is not able to change it himself because of it’s power.”
Xia Ming, political science professor at “City University, New
York" believes vested interest groups kidnapped state policy.
And systematically disregarding more and more the suffering
of the people.
Wen Jiabao sees that if China’s system does not change the,
result is conflict, instability, the possible collapse of CCP regime
This will all happen in the future of China’s society.
But he can do nothing about it.
Xia Ming: “One of the most fundamental obstacles of China’s
political reform is that Hu Jintao has no drive for reform.
He is not interested in the new thinking of reform either. His
ways are all old ones learned from cadres of political workers.
Under the authoritarian totalitarian system of CCP.
As for Wen Jiaobao, he is obviously very unfortunate.
If he wants to create reform, he is always directly at odds with
the top leader of CCP, Hu Jintao.”
Wen Jiabao’s comments of “political reform" have been
mentioned several times.
Last September, he proposed high-profile political reform with
the separation of the party and the government.
He wanted reform the CCP leadership system of China. But
his efforts were not echoed by other high officials in the party.
Xia Ming said presently overseas or at home, more and more
people have realized that the CCP must be disintegrated.
If it does not happen, China has no future. So there is a
movement of “opposition party" at home and abroad.
However, Ye Ke said there are better ways to disintegrate the
CCP than the formation of an “opposition party".
Ye Ke: “To quit the membership of the CCP is the most
peaceful, most rational and most effective way.
Because the CCP is able to rely on is a system of the party.
If we do not to follow it, all its orders can not be implemented.
Then if CCP wants to suppress the people, it can not conduct
its suppression.”
However, Xia Ming pointed out that the contradiction in CCP
is complex and the struggle is intense.
The CCP in the future may kill a person in order to meet the
requirements of people eagerly punishing corrupt officials.
Thus, at present, Wen Jiabao is in a very perilous situation.
Some scholars pointed out that in recent years, Wen Jiabao
called for political reform many times on different occasions.
Conversely, CCP’s suppression of dissents is worse. Wen
Jiabao’s call may just leave a good name behind as he exits.
NTD reporters Chang Chun, Song Feng and Zhou Tian
