【新唐人2012年1月12日讯】清华大学一个课题组日前发布报告指出，中国目前最需要警惕的，是既得利益集团用“维稳”为理由，拒绝改革、绑架改革，让中国陷入“转型陷阱”。报告说，改革初期的“摸石头过河”已经演变成为“只摸石头而不想过河”。
1月9号，《中国青年报》报导了“清华大学”社会学系社会发展课题组发布的“2011年度《社会进步系列研究报告》”，但报导的网路版很快被网路监管部门下令删除。
这份报告由“清华大学”教授孙立平主笔。报告指出：体制改革已经陷入困境，是个不争的事实。一些重要的改革措施被搁置，政治体制改革没有进展。人们需要警惕“石头摸上了瘾，连河也不想过了”。
孙立平等学者认为，转型过程造就了一个既得利益集团。这个集团阻止进一步变革，由此导致经济和社会发展畸形，各种问题不断积累，也使社会变革的动力越来越微弱。
报告写道：“这就如同在一幢烂尾的大楼中，人们简单装修一下就搭灶做饭，娶妻生子。”
清华大学的报告还总结了体制“转型陷阱”中的五大病症，包括：经济发展畸形，要依靠政府项目推动；过渡体制被定型，“改革”一词失去民心；贫富分化日益严重；改革变成“维稳”；社会溃败日渐明显。
报告指出，要打破这种“转型陷阱”，必须让中国“汇入世界主流文明的方向”，核心价值包括“自由、理性、个人权利、市场经济、民主政治、法治社会”。报告说：“中国最需要的是一种勇气，一种冲破既得利益格局、打破‘转型陷阱’、走出目前僵局与困境的勇气。”
而实际上，甚至中共当局内部，包括处于权力核心中的太子党们也看到了中国问题的严重性。
《悉尼先驱晨报》去年（2011年）10月报导，前中共党校校长马文瑞之女马晓力，在中国最有权势家庭的非官方聚会上说：“共产党就像是一个得了癌症的外科医生，自己已经不能切除肿瘤，它需要其他人的帮助，如果得不到帮助，它活不了多久。”
胡耀邦的长子胡德平也指责当代中国政治荒谬，甚至连“公民社会”这样的短语，都已经被主流媒体禁止使用。
斯坦福大学胡佛研究所（The Hoover Institution on War, Revolution, and Peace）罗文教授则认为，不管是何种方式，中国社会的大变革很可能在2020年前来临，这也将对整个世界产生巨大影响。
新唐人记者宋风 王明宇综合报导。
China’s “Transition Trap"
A research group at Tsinghua University
released recently a report on China’s reform.
China should be cautious of the vested interests groups’
using “maintaining stability" as an excuse to kidnap the reform.
This will make China become stuck in a “transition trap."
In the report, the early days’ reform’ saying “touch the stones
to cross the river" has become “touch the stones but do not cross the river."
On January 9, China Youth Daily reported about Tsinghua
University’s “2011 series studies of social progress."
However, the online edition was soon ordered to be removed
by the internet censorship department.
The report was mainly written by Sun Liping,
professor at Tsinghua University.
It stated: “It is an indisputable fact
that the institutional reform is in trouble.
A number of important reform measures were shelved.
Political reform hasn’t got any progress.
People need to be vigilant that ‘if addicted to touching
the stone, they will not be crossing the river."‘
Prof. Sun and other scholars believe,
that the transition process has created vested interests groups.
The groups prevent further changes which leads
to economic and social developmental deformities.
Problems continue to accumulate, and make the driving force
of social change weaker and weaker.
The report states: “It’s like in an unfinished building, people
make some simple decorations. Then they cook food and start their families in it."
The report also summarized the
top five “transformation trap" issues,
like economic development malformations,
founding of transitional institutions, growing gap between rich and poor,
the reform turning into “maintaining stability,"
and apparent social defeat.
According to the report, to overcome this ‘transformation trap,’
China must “embrace the world’s major civilizations."
The core values include “freedom, prudence, civil rights,
market economy, democracy, rule of law."
“What China needs the most is a kind of courage, which can
break the vested interest groups and the ‘transition trap,’
and can help go out of the current impasse and plight,"
the report says.
In fact, even within the Chinese authorities, including the core
of power in China’s prince lings, have seen these problems.
In October 2011, The Sydney Morning Herald reported about
a statement of Ma Xiaoli, daughter of the former CCP (China’s Communist Party) Party School’s headmaster.
During unofficial gathering of China’s most powerful families,
Ma Xiaoli said: “The CCP is like a surgeon who has cancer; it cannot remove the tumor by itself.
It needs the help of others.
Without such help it cannot live for much longer."
Hu Yaobang’s son Hu Deping also criticized
China’s political absurdity.
Even a phrase like “civil society"
is banned for use by the mainstream media.
Prof. Luo Wen from Stanford University’s Hoover Institute,
said, regardless of the way, China will witness major changes,
which the society is likely to experience before 2020,
and which will have a significant impact on the whole world.
NTD reporters Song Feng and Wang Mingyu.
