【新唐人2011年12月20日讯】统治朝鲜17年的独裁者金正日12月17号病逝，引发全球密切关注，尤其是他的第三个儿子、今年29岁的金正恩能否顺利接班。外界分析，“后金正日时代”，对于朝鲜半岛的无核化与和平进程，既存在契机又充满风险，同时也给朝鲜社会的变革带来了机会。
朝鲜官方媒体19号报导，朝鲜国防委员长金正日17号在行驶的列车上，死于急性心肌梗塞，终年69岁。在此之前，金正日15号视察了朝鲜首家中国式大型超市“光复地区商业中心”。
朝鲜劳动党要求全民“忠于金正恩的领导”。《韩联社》报导说，金正恩将像他的父亲金正日当年接班时一样，服丧三年，并在此期间谋求巩固权力。
金正恩去年被推举为仅次于金正日的军方二把手。金正日的妹妹和妹夫张成泽也已被委任军政要职，作为金正恩的接班监护人，形成金家世袭的统治集团。
金正恩1984年1月出生，曾在瑞士首都留学，学习英文、德文和法文。金正日去年8月秘密访问中国时，在长春向中共总书记胡锦涛引见了金正恩，有媒体形容为“托孤”。
金正日之死是否引发朝鲜权力斗争，外界看法各不相同。辽宁社科院朝韩研究中心主任吕超认为，朝鲜很可能会平稳接班，如果权力不能平稳过渡，将会对东北亚局势形成极大的冲击。
韩国《朝鲜日报》报导，金正日去世后，朝鲜安全人员控制了主要街道，集市也被关闭，并封锁了中朝边境。中共也向军队下达了“一级备战命令”，以防不测。
《中国事务》主编伍凡指出，中共与朝鲜“唇亡齿寒”。
伍凡：“金正日死了那当然是个大好的消息啦，对全世界独裁专制的国家是一个噩耗。现在紧接着就是，中共要对朝鲜半岛这一个部分它会加强军事力量的控制，生怕因为金正日死了，那么金正日这个系统全部垮台，引起社会动乱，再一个，不要让朝鲜的难民跑到中国来。”
美国总统欧巴马与韩国总统李明博通了电话，重申华盛顿对朝鲜半岛稳定的承诺。韩国军队已进入紧急戒备状态。日本也成立了有关朝鲜问题的危机处理小组。
美国CNN表示，金正日去世后，朝鲜的领导层更换，对于解决朝鲜半岛核问题、改善美朝关系可能是一个机会，但也有相当的风险。目前，有关各方都在紧张的观望局势发展，避免发出错误的信号。
《朝鲜日报》报导，美朝双方16号在北京初步达成了协议，朝鲜表示愿意接受韩美要求的“先采取无核化措施”，也就是中断铀浓缩计划，换取每月2万吨的粮食援助。
美朝并决定22号在北京举行第三次美朝会谈。如果会谈取得成果，六方会谈有望在明年2、3月左右重启。但是，金正日突然去世，美国官员表示，这些进程很有可能将被推迟。
日本《读卖新闻》报导，金正恩去年11月曾表示，“粮食比子弹重要”，要在3年内让朝鲜人民吃上白米饭肉汤。香港《动向》杂志主编张伟国指出，金正日的死给朝鲜带来了变革的契机。
张伟国：“像中国、像朝鲜，如果它的政治制度没有办法推进这种社会变革的时候，领导人的去世就为这个变革带来一些机会。所以，从这个角度来看，金正日的去世，为朝鲜新的变局带来机会。”
外界分析，中共担心金正日之死导致朝鲜政权变局甚至垮台，倒向韩国和美国，最终由韩国主导实现朝鲜半岛的统一。“后金正日时代”，朝鲜的政治、经济等各方面的走向，都将对中国社会的转型产生重要影响。
新唐人记者常春、李元翰、萧宇采访报导。
Kim Jong Il’s Death—Opportunities for Korean Peninsula
North Korea’s 17-year dictator, Kim Jong Il,
died on December 17, triggering global attention.
Focus is on his third son, 29-year-old Kim Jong-un
and his succession to political power.
Analysts say in the post-Kim Jong Il era, both chances
and risks coexist in bringing denuclearization, peace and social change to the Korean Peninsula.
On December 19, North Korea’s official media reported
the death of leader Kim Jong Il at the age of 69.
An acute heart attack killed Jong Il on a train
on December 17.
Two days earlier, Kim had inspected the country’s
first Chinese-style large supermarket in Pyongyang.
The Korean Workers’ Party is demanding all North Koreans
to be “loyal to Kim Jong-un’s leadership."
Yonhap News reported, Kim Jong-un will mourn for three years,
as his father did when he took over.
The period will prepare Kim Jong-un to consolidate his power.
Kim Jong-un was elected the military’s second-in-command
in 2010, under Kim Jong Il.
Jong Il’s sister and brother-in-law were also given key
military and political positions.
Both will serve as guardians assisting Jong-un’s succession,
forming the Kim-family hereditary rule.
Born in 1984, Kim Jong-un studied English, German
and French in Switzerland.
In August 2010, Kim Jong Il visited China secretly,
introducing Jong-un to President Hu Jintao.
Media said Kim’s visit was “entrusting his son to the care
of the CCP (Chinese Communist Party)”.
Will Kim Jong-Il’s death provoke political power struggle
in North Korea? Outsider comments vary.
Research center director at Liaoning Academy of
Social Sciences, Lu Chao, believes succession will likely be smooth.
If it fails, the aftermath may hit Northeast Asia hard.
According to South Korea’s The Chosun Ilbo, North Korean
security officers started controlling the main streets.
After Jong Il’s death, markets were closed and the
North Korea-China border sealed off.
The Chinese Communist Party ordered its army to be in
“first-degree combat readiness”, in case of an emergency.
China Affairs magazine Chief Editor, Wu Fan, points out,
China—North Korea relations are such that
“Teeth are exposed to the cold when the lip is lost.”
Wu Fan: " Kim Jong Il’s death is certainly great news.
But it’s sad news to the world’s dictatorship regimes.
Now, following this event will be the CCP’s further
military control over the Korean peninsula.
The CCP fears Kim Jong Il’s death will trigger his regime’s
collapse and social unrest.
The CCP has another purpose —to prevent North Korea’s
Refugees from entering China. “
U.S. President Barack Obama spoke to his South Korean
counterpart Lee Myung-bak by telephone.
Obama reiterated Washington’s commitment to the stability
of the Korean peninsula.
South Korean troops have been put on emergency alert.
Japan also set up a crisis management team on North Korea.
CNN says Kim Jong Il’s death and the change in leadership
may better US-N.Korea relations and resolve nuclear issues.
But there are also considerable risks.
At present, all parties concerned are observing,
avoiding sending the wrong signal.
The Chosun Ilbo reported, U.S. and North Korea reached
an initial agreement in Beijing on December 16.
North Korea was willing to accept “denuclearization first”,
as demanded by South Korea and the U.S..
North Korea is asked to suspend its uranium enrichment
program in exchange for a 20,000-ton monthly food aid.
Beijing holds the third US-North Korea talks on December 22.
If successful, the six-party talks are expected to resume
around February or March 2012.
However, with Kim Jong Il’s sudden death, U.S. officials say
the process will likely be postponed.
Japanese media The Daily Yomiuri, says in November 2010,
Kim Jong-un stated, “Food is more important than bullets".
He claims in three years, white rice and broth will become
a reality for the North Korean people.
Hong Kong’s Trends magazine Chief Editor, Zhang Weiguo,
says Kim Jong-il’s death brings North Korea a chance for social change.
Zhang Weiguo: “Like in China or in North Korea,
when its political system has no way to advance social change,
a specific leader’s death could create some opportunities.
From this perspective, Kim Jong Il’s death brings opportunities
for change in North Korea. “
Outside analysts say the CCP fears Kim Jong Il’s death will
cause the North Korean regime to change or even collapse.
If North Korea sways towards South Korea and the U.S.,
the Korean peninsula may realize ethnic unity.
In the Post-Kim Jong Il era, North Korea’s political, economic
and other trends may greatly influence Chinese society.
NTD reporters Chan Chun, Li Yuanhan and Xiao Yu
